The List 8/1: Top 100 Starting Pitchers For 2022 – Week 18

Welcome to The List, where I rank the Top 100 SP for Fantasy Baseball every single Monday of the year.

Want an earlier update to The List? Join me on Mondays at 1:00pm ET as I live-stream its creation each week!

Have questions? My “office hours” are on Twitch 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday – Friday + the aforementioned stream of The List.

For each edition of The List, I have a set of rules to outline my thought process and how to best use these rankings. Please take note:

1. This is 5×5, 12-teamer, H2H format focused. It generally is the same as roto as well, but make sure you adjust accordingly.
2. We have two tables to review before the notes and rankings. First is an injury table that outlines where players would be relatively ranked if fully healthy. It’s the best way to tackle how to value players on the IL.
3. If a player is on the IL or not confirmed inside the rotation, they aren’t on the List. That includes injuries and guys in the minors, but there are exceptions for players who are expected to be in the rotation but are being skipped this week.
4. Second is a table of pitchers outside the Top 100 I considered. Please read this if you can’t find your guy.
5. Since this is a 12-teamer, I heavily weigh upside in the back-half of the rankings. Tier 10 is likely going to underperform those in Tier 11 across a full season, but it’s in your best interest to chase Tier 10’s ceiling vs. settling for Tier 11’s floor.
6. I’ve made a decision to remove all the labels that I struggle to maintain through the season to instead give each player just one label at a time. It streamlines the process much better and hopefully gives you a more targeted understanding of the player.
7. The notes outline oh-so-much to help your team. Please read the notes if you can instead of just scrolling to the bottom.

 

Let’s get to the tables. First are all of our injured compatriots:

 

 

I made a decision this year: I’ve removed the “Preseason tiers” and changed “tiers” to “Relative Rank” as it’ll be more consistent week-to-week — Tiers change while their relative rank does not.

Please understand that “70-80” does not guarantee the player will be exactly in that range when they return. Rankings are 100% relative to the landscape and while this table reflects where they would sit in a vacuum, it’s a fluid creature. Sometimes there are oh-so-many options, sometimes I want to see them healthy and stretched out again, and others we’re starving for pitchers and they jump higher than “70-80”. It’s a loose reference point and why it’s called “relative ranking.” It’s difficult to update this week-to-week and I apologize if the ranking is different when the player actually returns from the IL. I hope it helps!

One last point about that – often times pitchers need an extra week or two to ramp up once they do return to the majors. It’s why Still ILL exists and the “relative rank” you see is when those guys have shaken off their rust. Will they be back to normal in their first start or will they need a few? I have no idea! Those ranks are to show what I’d expect once they are fully back to normal.

Now let’s take a look at the pitchers I considered for the Top 100 but didn’t quite make the cut:

 

 

Lastly, I heavily recommend you follow my daily SP Roundup that outlines all pitcher performances through the season, or if you want a primer on most of these pitchers, you can check out my 40,000 words from the pre-season via my Top 224 Starting Pitchers for 2022 from February. Both will help you get a grasp of my general thoughts on most of these guys (especially the roundup!) as I simply can’t detail everything about 100 pitchers in these notes each week.

 

 

Ranking Notes

 

• This is your reminder to please read these notes as they’ll tell you plenty about why “someone moved up” or “why is he at #X?!”
• Seriously. Read the notes.

 

• As is tradition, I need to tell you about the guys who were removed and added from the Top 60, so you have context for the ranking shifts.
• Added: Jacob deGrom (5), Freddy Peralta (34), Jesús Luzardo (56)
• Removed: None
• Net Gain Inside Top 60: (-3)

 

• Before we begin, we have some important elements to nail down. First, I finished updating this at 6pm ET on Monday, 8/1. I’m telling you this because I’m sure trades are going to be made and mess up a lot of this stuff, from expected matchups to rotations getting all mangled. I will not be updating The List until next Monday.
• The day hath FINALLY arrived. Jacob deGrom has returned to The List, and so has Freddy Peralta and Jesús Luzardo, creating a whole lot of red. Please keep in mind that innate -3 listed above.

 

• So about those injured guys. I had a fun discussion with Twitch chat about where to place Jacob deGrom and settled on #5. Give him some time to properly display he’s the #1 pitcher on the planet again + there is some risk to see if he’s actually able to pitch through to the end. This is the toughest placement on The List this week and I understand all the opinions on this one.
• For Freddy Peralta and Jesús Luzardo, I tried to place them a tier lower than where I expect them to be in a week or two. For Peralta, as long as he doesn’t have massive command issues and his fastball/slider are still hard to hit, he’ll soar. With Luzardo, look for ~97 mph heaters and heavy curveball usage.

 

• Okay, now to the regular flow of these notes. Nothing else new inside Tier 1 outside of Justin Verlander sitting inside it at #8 now. He hasn’t slowed down and deserves that love.
• The second tier has expanded as well and has Brandon Woodruff rising to #13 after another start of dominant fastballs. Let’s hope it carries him through October.

 

• The third tier has three major changes. First, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray each took hits as Gausman’s WHIP sits around 1.30 and Ray has struggled to earn whiffs across the board. Gausman’s BABIP should fall dramatically from its absurd .386 clip and Ray is sure to miss more bats, but I needed to ding them for problems other pitchers aren’t experiencing.
• The third affected pitcher was Yu Darvish, who earned his AGA tag and flirts now with the Top 20 (stupid deGrom…). His 3.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP have made managers thrilled through the season as he’s gone at least seven frames in each of his last four games.

 

• Tier 4 kicks off with the newest man in Seattle, Luis Castillo, who I elected not to raise yet given his move out of Cincy for a few factors. He’s destined to face the Yankees twice this week, his hit rates, BABIP, and HR/FB rates were already low and I don’t believe we’ll see a dramatic difference in Seattle, and lastly, I’m not sure how the move will affect Castillo. I want to give him his AGA label soon and propel him behind Darvish, and hopefully he forces the issue this week.

 

• I opened up the tier a bit this week, adding Jon Gray, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider to the mix. All of them could be incredible plays down the stretch and make a sizeable impact, especially with Gray sitting 98 mph last time out. Let’s hope they all thrive.
• Frankie Montas was dealt while writing these notes and I elected not to change his ranking based on his departure to New York. I imagine they feel fine about his shoulder, but I want to see how he performs for a start, too.

 

• In the fifth tier, don’t be alarmed by the red – that’s just the new additions + love for Strider. Otherwise, it’s business per usual as I’m not seeing anything that dramatically shifts my views of these guys.
• I really do hope Logan Gilbert finds something in his curve or slider (and keeps it!) before too long, though. I don’t think he can sustain his ratios without better secondaries.

 

• Tier six and Tier seven are all about searching for the next big wave of success. The likes of Lance Lynn, Mike Clevinger, and Blake Snell are hinting at phenomenal months ahead, but each do come a wart or two that holds that back from a spot in Tier 5 or higher.
• Then there’s Miles Mikolas and Martín Pérez, who have been incredibly solid for managers all year. I hope they can keep this up, but it’s hard not to have doubts given their heavy reliance on stellar command.

 

• The end of the tier is a small step above those in the next tier, but deservedly so. José Berríos tumbles a bit – the other arms here are safer and carry the same ceiling – and even after performing well against the Tigers, I’m not sure his stuff is in the place I wanted to see at this point of the year.
• I’m not sure if Andrew Heaney is the guy we saw at the beginning of April just yet and I may be raising him into Tier 5 by next week if we simply see more of the same. As for Tarik Skubal, I can’t quite decide if I’m buying into a second-half rebound or not. His arsenal itself has the potential, but the command undulates more than I like.

 

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• The seventh tier begins with Lucas Giolito sitting just outside the Top 50 – a wild sight, I know. His velocity has been down for a good while now and I’m worried we’re running out of time before he can properly recover.
• Outside of the grim reality of Giolito, we have a ton of fun names here. It’s a fun discussion about where to place the likes of Reid Detmers, Nick Lodolo, Aaron Ashby, and Jesús Luzardo, and I’m favoring Detmers of the bunch. His new slider just impressed with 10/28 whiffs, while the four-seamer is benefiting along with it. Lodolo is clicking as well, and I’d favor both as “must adds” right now.

 

• I’m not as excited for Aaron Ashby as his command is a bit more in question, but I’d still be grabbing him in all leagues. I elected to place Jesús Luzardo under these names (and Tyler Mahle as I expect him to be dealt) as we need to wait and see what he brings to the table.
• At the end of the tier are two underperforming arms who could turn it around. Patrick Sandoval did earn eleven changeup whiffs over the weekend and if he keeps that up, he’ll be back in Tier 6 shortly. Joe Ryan allowed 5 Hrs (lol) to the Padres and while he won’t do that, he still doesn’t have a dependable secondary offering yet. Let’s hope that slider gets going soon.

 

• In Tier 8, I gave Merrill Kelly more love for his season, which looked a bit pedestrian just a few starts ago (WHIP at 1.22), but his last three starts have returned just one earned run and lowered his ERA about 40 points. I don’t buy that it’s going to stick around for the final two months. Keep riding it, but I’d rather take my chances with Tier 6 and 7 instead.
• The ton of red below is because of the new additions + the rise of the young arms. It feels weird to lower Sean Manaea after he finally took a step in the right direction (92 mph heater, axing the slider, lots of changeup whiffs), but as of now, it’s just a Dennis and not something to lean on.

 

• I took no joy lowering Jordan Montgomery 25 spots, and it’s a product of having so many high-ceiling arms to chase instead as he’s pitching closer to the ability of Toby types. It’s the time to chase others instead of settling and The Bear hasn’t been in rhythm lately.
• I debated with the spot of Jeffrey Springs plenty and ultimately I’m leaning into his command improvement in his last start that will outline successful weeks ahead. He’s teetering between Tier 7 and Tier 11 at this point, so I slotted him in the middle.

 

• I don’t love placing both Alex Wood and Alex Cobb this far down after they both took care of business against the Cubs and are trending in the right direction, but I also don’t feel comfortable starting them against the Dodgers. They are in the land of purgatory, which is the theme of Tier 9 as they sit right before this week’s “Wandy Line” – the moment where you drop your pitchers for streamers instead.
• The likes of Braxton Garrett, Josiah Gray, Hunter Greene, and Brady Singer are all worthy gambles at the moment – will Garrett continue to get slider whiffs? Can Gray iron out his breaking ball command and keep his heater up? Is Greene ever going to stop being volatile? And is Singer’s current Vargas Rule here to stay? Each can win you your weeks…or burn them to the ground.

 

• Tier 10 is my acknowledgment of these pitchers who y’all aren’t dropping. I get it, they do their thing and get out. Do we believe them to be Top 40 arms down the stretch? Nah, but they are better than the waiver wire and that’s fine. Good ole Toby types.
• I can’t help but wonder if Noah Syndergaard gets dealt or not. He’s on a one-year deal and if the Angels eat some of the contract, they should be able to deal him somewhere that needs SP depth. Just a thought.

 

• In Tier 11, we begin with two major names that may surprise many to be nearly outside the Top 80. Nathan Eovaldi’s velocity has been sub 95 mph for three straight starts since returning from the IL and I can’t tell you it’s going to be corrected in the near future. It’s not a fun time to roster the man.
• The other arm is George Kirby, who may be displaced by the Luis Castillo deal. He gets a solid outing against the Angels this week in a double-header (start him there), but his time in the rotation may be coming to a close.

 

• Don’t ignore what Ranger Suárez has been doing with his changeup and cutter. His ERA is comfortably under 4.00 these days and may be on the verge of another second-half string of dominance.
• I’ve underrated the excellence of Cole Irvin and he’s nestled into a proper Vargas Rule. Feel free to pick him up and start him as it lasts against all but the top offenses.

 

• I’m sad to see Eric Lauer’s velocity dip to 92 mph in his last outing as this magic of his 21-whiff evening has faded in the distance. There’s a chance it returns, but I don’t want to chase it…outside of the Pirates this week. It’s the Pirates, y’all.
• José Quintana and Johnny Cueto are making it work and I completely understand managers chasing them in the short term as well. Jake Odorizzi has had his old command recently and may keep it going against the Guardians, as well.

 

• The bottom tier is larger than usual, but it’s the same feeling as always – if you need something, here are a few names who could make it work.
• The Jays have the first two names. Ross Stripling hasn’t had his changeup lately, while Yusei Kikuchi’s command was as good as I’ve seen it all year in his previous outing. I wonder how both will look in the week ahead.

 

• Joining The List this week are James Kaprielian, Justin Steele, and Andre Pallante. Kap is becoming a possibly Toby, Steele’s slider prevents a ton of hard contact, and Pallante just fanned eight in as many innings. I’d prefer not to lean on them at all in my 12-teamers, but they may force the issue in the coming weeks.
• And finally, the #100 arm this week is Bailey Falter as I’ll recognize his four-seamer doing work against the Pirates this weekend. It seems awfully precarious, but who knows. Maybe it sticks around.

 

• Daniel Lynch was activated from the IL to start on Monday night just as I was finishing up The List – let’s see how his blister has healed and how he performs before making a pickup, but there could be something there. Watch his start tonight closely (or just read my SP Roundup at 2am ET).
• One final thought: The Athletics received JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk in their haul for Frankie Montas and I imagine one of them (likely Sears) will get a chance for regular starts moving forward. I can’t rank them as they aren’t confirmed, but I wouldn’t be shocked if one becomes a considerable add or streamer in the near future. Keep an eye out.

 

 

YOU SHOULD READ THE NOTES

 

FOR REAL

 

Rank	Pitcher	Badges	Change
1	Corbin BurnesT1	Aces Gonna Ace	-
2	Shane McClanahan	Aces Gonna Ace	-
3	Sandy Alcantara	Aces Gonna Ace	-
4	Max Scherzer	Aces Gonna Ace	-
5	Jacob deGrom	Aces Gonna Ace Injury Risk	+UR
6	Gerrit Cole	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
7	Zack Wheeler	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
8	Justin Verlander	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
9	Joe Musgrove T2	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
10	Carlos Rodón	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
11	Shohei Ohtani	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
12	Clayton Kershaw	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
13	Brandon Woodruff	Aces Gonna Ace	+2
14	Alek Manoah	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
15	Aaron Nola	Aces Gonna Ace	-1
16	Dylan Cease	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
17	Max Fried	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
18	Logan Webb T3	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
19	Shane Bieber	Aces Gonna Ace	+1
20	Kevin Gausman	Aces Gonna Ace	-7
21	Yu Darvish	Aces Gonna Ace	+4
22	Robbie Ray	Aces Gonna Ace	-6
23	Pablo López	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
24	Tony Gonsolin	Aces Gonna Ace	-2
25	Luis Castillo T4	Ace Potential	-2
26	Julio Urías	Ace Potential	-2
27	Kyle Wright	Ace Potential	+2
28	Framber Valdez	Ace Potential	-1
29	Frankie Montas	Ace Potential Injury Risk	-1
30	Chris Bassitt	Ace Potential	-4
31	Jon Gray	Ace Potential	-1
32	Charlie Morton	Ace Potential	-1
33	Spencer Strider	Ace Potential	+3
34	Freddy Peralta	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+UR
35	Luis Garcia T5	Strikeout Upside	-3
36	Triston McKenzie	Strikeout Upside	-3
37	Nestor Cortes	Ace Potential	-3
38	Zac Gallen	Ace Potential	-
39	Logan Gilbert	Ace Potential	-4
40	Cristian Javier	Ace Potential	-
41	Taijuan Walker	Quality Starts	+1
42	Tyler Anderson	Quality Starts	+1
43	Lance Lynn T6	Ace Potential	+1
44	Mike Clevinger	Ace Potential	+1
45	Blake Snell	Ace Potential	+2
46	Miles Mikolas	Quality Starts	+4
47	Martín Pérez	Quality Starts	+8
48	José Berríos	Cherry Bomb	-9
49	Tarik Skubal	Ace Potential	-3
50	Andrew Heaney	Ace Potential	+1
51	Lucas Giolito T7	Ace Potential	-3
52	Reid Detmers	Ace Potential	+11
53	Nick Lodolo	Strikeout Upside	+12
54	Aaron Ashby	Ace Potential	+8
55	Tyler Mahle	Strikeout Upside	+5
56	Jesús Luzardo	Ace Potential Injury Risk	+UR
57	Patrick Sandoval	Ace Potential	-5
58	Joe Ryan	Ace Potential	-17
59	Merrill Kelly T8	Quality Starts	+11
60	Marcus Stroman	Quality Starts	-6
61	José Urquidy	Toby	-8
62	Jordan Montgomery	Ratio Focused	-25
63	Sean Manaea	Ace Potential	-5
64	Sonny Gray	Strikeout Upside	-8
65	Carlos Carrasco	Quality Starts	-6
66	Jeffrey Springs	Strikeout Upside	+1
67	Michael Kopech	Ace Potential	-1
68	Alex Wood T9	Cherry Bomb	-7
69	Braxton Garrett	Strikeout Upside	-5
70	Josiah Gray	Cherry Bomb	+4
71	Hunter Greene	Cherry Bomb	+4
72	Brady Singer	Cherry Bomb	+8
73	Alex Cobb	Cherry Bomb	-5
74	Corey Kluber T10	Quality Starts	-5
75	Adam Wainwright	Quality Starts	-3
76	Noah Syndergaard	Toby	-5
77	Jameson Taillon	Toby	-1
78	Nathan Eovaldi T11	Ace Potential	-29
79	George Kirby	Ace Potential	-22
80	Ranger Suárez	Streaming Option	+14
81	Cole Irvin	Streaming Option	+UR
82	Eric Lauer	Cherry Bomb	-9
83	Jake Odorizzi	Streaming Option	-6
84	Johnny Cueto	Toby	-2
85	Jose Quintana	Streaming Option	+4
86	Ross Stripling T12	Streaming Option	-8
87	Yusei Kikuchi	Streaming Option	+UR
88	Zach Plesac	Toby	-9
89	Drew Rasmussen	Toby	-8
90	Mitch Keller	Streaming Option	-
91	Ian Anderson	Cherry Bomb	-
92	Kyle Gibson	Toby	-9
93	Marco Gonzales	Quality Starts	+5
94	Chris Flexen	Toby	+3
95	James Kaprielian	Streaming Option	+UR
96	Keegan Thompson	Streaming Option	-4
97	Jakob Junis	Streaming Option	-11
98	Justin Steele	Streaming Option	+UR
99	Andre Pallante	Streaming Option	+UR
100	Bailey Falter	Streaming Option	+UR

 

Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)