|Pitcher||Why They Missed The Cut|
|Jimmy Nelson||With the recent ETA sitting in Early May, I figured I’d simply leave Nelson off until he returns. He’ll then be placed around the early 50s.|
|Tyler Skaggs||Update: Hit the IL with an ankle sprain the moment as I published today’s List, he’s been removed until he returns.|
|Luis Severino||The recent injury news sets him back to July 1st, hopefully. He’ll be Top 15 then.|
|Mike Clevinger||His injury has Clev out until middle July. He’ll be Top 20 then.|
|Hyun-Jin Ryu||Ryu is recovering from a groin injury and will miss a few weeks. Ryu is off The List as he’s turned “short” IL stints into long ones prior. He’d be in the low 30s.|
|Sean Newcomb||Newcomb has been demoted to Triple-A|
|Kyle Wright||Wright has been demoted to Triple-A|
|Alex Wood||I’m just going to wait until he’s back to properly rank him. Most likely in the 50s.|
|Yonny Chirinos||I don’t believe he’ll be without an opener for long + he has a low IPS and is a bit too volatile to recommend.|
|Forrest Whitley||He’s still a guy to stash, there are just too many guys that I wanted to fit in on The List.|
|Justus Sheffield||Same with Sheff – he’s a good stash option, but I want to focus on guys in the majors now this week.|
|Martin Perez||Spring Training velocity reports are definitely interesting but I need to see it during the season first.|
|Dallas Keuchel||He won’t be starting until May at the earliest and he’s not worth the stash on your roster.|
|Vince Velasquez||A massive Cherry Bomb without the clear path to working out of it with inconsistent secondary options. A poor schedule ahead makes this not the right time for a pickup.|
|Andrew Heaney||Shut down again with elbow trouble. That’s scary and makes his expected return even later.|
|Jake Odorizzi||Had a great first, then was atrocious. Not worth the investment as he’s a Cherry Bomb with more bad than good.|
|Trevor Cahill||He may improve as April continues, for now, I’d wait and see.|
|Ivan Nova||Just not enough upside and while he’s a decent streamer, it’s never for a high ceiling. Just not enough there.|
|Sandy Alcantara||He’s incredibly raw and the ceiling is not worth the destruction along the way.|
|Reynaldo Lopez||Once he can harness both his changeup and slider during a start, he’ll return.|
|Lucas Giolito||He’s still struggling with consistency making this too much of a risk each start.|
|Zack Godley||There’s nothing to latch onto to help us believe in a positive stretch ahead.|
|Zach Davies||He had an impressive outing, but he has a tough schedule and I wouldn’t put stock in it.|
What is happening!
It’s a new season and the weekly updates to The List have returned. I’ll be ranking the Top 100 Starting Pitchers every Monday from now until the end of the season.
Before I dive into the player notes, here are the new List features from last year’s editions:
- Previous/Best/Worst columns removed
- These took a heavy chunk of loading time and ultimately provided very little value. The change arrows themselves are all that’s needed
- Tiers added
- As much as I hate making tiers (When do they start and end? How big are the cliffs?), ya’ll have been asking for them and I’m here for all of you. Please understand how hard it is to accurately place them and don’t get too worked up about it.
- Labels added
- There’s often confusion as to why a pitcher is a spot or two above or below another. These labels should help understand what each pitcher brings to the table, showing that some pitchers may be better or worse for what you need.
- Hover over them (or tap on mobile) to see each label’s name next to the pitcher.
- Ratio Focused = Their value lies in you chasing their ERA/WHIP more than strikeouts and Wins.
- Toby = Boring arm that doesn’t excite you, but you stare at the waiver wire and accept that he just okay enough. You don’t like that he’s around the office, but he gets his work done.
- Cherry Bomb = Volatile pitchers who are either “super sweet” or “blow up in your face.” Heed warning.
- Ace Potential = I define an ace as: 3.40 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 24% K rate, 6.0 IPS. It’s why you see some surprising names as having the upside of an ace.
- Fringe Starters added
- There are always a handful of starters I badly want to add to The List but I don’t have enough room. I’ll always have this table at the end for a collection of starters – in no order – that I also heavily considered, as well as why they could be relevant
- This will be where IL Players will land. I’ll mention where they would slot when healthy.
Please let me know how you feel about these changes and I’m looking forward to another fun year assessing the wonderful entity that is the SP Landscape.
On to the notes! Remember, these ranks are for 12-teamers in H2H leagues.
- This is the week when I needed to make sweeping changes. Who are the “stable” guys in the 30s/40s? Is it time to cut bait on some arms and chase other upside plays? Lots of movement and I won’t get to all of it here. Hopefully the roundups covered my thoughts through the week :)
- Please note that multiple names fell off the list due to injury or demotions, inherently giving positive movement to about 90% of The List. Don’t look at the color, look at the relative movement.
- I struggled the most with the mini-tier Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Freeland, and J.A. Happ. These are arms that should be solid ratio arms through the year, but simply haven’t performed up to snuff thus far. It’s April 15th and I truly believe all of them will get there, but is it worth it to stick around with them now and turn down guys like Touki Toussaint and Trevor Richards for that? Yes and no. They are in the same tier for a reason, go for it if you feel comfortable letting them go, I get the feeling we’ll see most of these “stable” arms jump significantly in a week or two as they get their footing.
- I gave love to Jose Berrios, Patrick Corbin, and German Marquez for their hot starts and lowered Chris Sale to a point that I imagine is even value on the trade market. It just seems so wrong to turn down Kershaw, Carrasco, Marquez, etc. for Sale when he presents such an enigma. Zack Wheeler‘s next start will be heavily scrutinized as he could fall under Luis Castillo if I’m not loving his fastball command.
- Jameson Taillon and Miles Mikolas each fell given their lack of strikeouts thus far. I think they will both recover as the season continues, but for now I understand favoring others.
- I imagine the biggest splash will be the jumps made by Matt Boyd (Boyd Boyz for life!), Tyler Glasnow, Joe Musgrove, Chris Archer, Caleb Smith, and Collin McHugh. It’s a product of their strikeout success and the horrid SP Landscape that plagued many of the 30s/40s names. These are better arms to bet on for now and let’s see how it plays out.
- Major – and expected! – hits came to Nick Pivetta, Corbin Burnes, Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Nathan Eovaldi. All of these names could make jumps against quickly – well Peralta may take more time – so monitor them and be quick to jump on the wire if they make distinct changes.
- A few Toby types looked fantastic this week, including Sonny Gray, Jake Arrieta, and Jose Quintana. This could be the start of a trend, it could be nothing, but they definitely deserved the raises.
- It’s time for Brad Keller to join the party as he’s effectively throwing heat up with breakers down. I don’t love his stuff, but this approach will make him a good Toby in a weak division. It took me long enough to put him here!
- Joining The List this week are Drew Pomeranz, Nick Margevicius, Clay Buchholz, Carlos Rodon, CC Sabathia, Lance Lynn, Tyler Mahle, and Luke Weaver. Margevicius is a Vargas Rule, Lynn Pomeranz, and Mahle could be decent streamers on a given day, Sabathia will ramp up to be a cheap Win Toby, Rodon is volatile buy is earning a decent amount of whiffs, and both Buchholz and Weaver could turn into decent 12-teamer options if they repeat their recent outings.
(Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire)