Tier 2 is basically the shared closer role relievers who didn’t make the closers list. Adbert Alzolay and Hunter Harvey remain the best pitchers in their respective bullpens, and recently have seen some save opportunities. Alzolay isn’t missing bats at a huge rate (28.6% CSW) but he’s not allowing free bases (4% BB rate) and limiting hard contact. He’s basically doing what they had hoped/expected Michael Fulmer to do. Harvey on the other hand has had a bit of an issue with hard contact, but he has been able to manage a 31.7% K rate despite not having a true out pitch. He’s managed 5 SV+HLD’s since May 20th, and should be an option to take over the full time closer role in Washington once the team decides to move on from Kyle Finnegan.
Notes
- Miguel Castro is also part of a closer committee, and while he has been very lucky this season, perhaps he may be this season’s Rafael Montero of sorts. I hate the 14.6% K-BB rate and just a 12.5% SwStr rate and the 4.01 xFIP isn’t ideal but he’s making it work for the most part with a 2.22 ERA and WHIP under 1.00. He’s been one of, if not the, best reliever in the game at limiting hard contact and missing barrels, so as long as he can keep that up, there’s no reason not to roster him.
- Adam Ottavino continues to see occasional saves as well as hold chances, but the 4.23 ERA (backed by a 4.22 xFIP) keeps him out of the top 10 for now. He’s still struggling to get swings and misses (10.2% SwStr rate) but he has been getting plenty of called strikes, leading to a 32% CSW. What’s wild to me here, is we’ve all seen Ottavino’s sweeper, the pitch has been featured in our “Nastiest Pitches” segment for years now, but this season he only has a 13.9% Whiff rate with the pitch somehow. That’s one of the lowest in baseball for a breaking ball.
- Joel Payamps continues to succeed with the Brewers and he’s a great example as to why throwing strikes and limiting walks can lead to good things. Payamps doesn’t do anything special. His 10.2% SwStr and 26.6% CSW rates are really bad, but he only has walked 3.7% of batters so he’s able to sustain a 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. The Brewers trust him as a setup man now, leading to five holds since May 21st.
- Phil Maton may only have 4 holds on the season, but 3 have come over the past two weeks and with others struggling in this bullpen, he should continue to see some high leverage work, especially with how dominant he has been this season. Despite averaging 89.5 MPH on his fastball, Maton is able to generate crazy spin rates on his pitches, leading to a 5.48 PLV on the season and he currently has a 28.4% K-BB rate.
- Steven Okert was one of my favorite unheralded relievers heading into the season and, while an injury slowed his start, he’s back to dominating hitters again, with a 40.6% K rate over 17.1 innings this season so far. That will certainly come back down to earth over time, but he’s still a quality reliever who happens to have 3 holds over the past three weeks.
- Ben Joyce is up with the Angels now and while everyone can get excited about him because he throws 100+ MPH, I think we should also remember that there’s a guy in St. Louis who also does. Jordan Hicks also has a longer track record and despite his injury and command concerns, they aren’t nearly as concerning as Joyce’s. Joyce does have a bit more swing and miss in him, but this is a guy who walked 13 batters over 15.2 IP at AA this season and has thrown a total of 82.2 innings in six years. Joyce has immense upside, but there’s a very low floor here as well.
- With Brooks Raley back in the Mets bullpen, Drew Smith is likely to become more of an afterthought now, especially seeing how he’s allowed runs in his last four outings. With a 26.1% CSW and 12.5% BB rate, I’m out on Smith at the moment
- The White Sox bullpen actually has a chance to be really strong with Liam Hendriks back in the mix now. Joe Kelly scuffled this past week but Reynaldo López has been pitching well again, and they are getting quality innings from Keynan Middleton as well. It will be interesting to see who gets the most hold chances between these three and Kendall Graveman, as each one has significant upside (outside of Graveman).
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