I’ve been talking about and raising Ryan Helsley up the list for a couple of weeks now, but I did not foresee this ranking for him this fast. Obviously, this current rate can’t continue, but being the top holds option on a team that can win their division gives him a pretty solid floor. The ceiling, well we are seeing it right now and as you can tell by the rest of the list, there aren’t a ton of true “must roster” set-up men in baseball right now. It all leads to an aggressive ranking this week but I think Helsley has put himself in that “must roster” category for holds leagues and even deeper standard formats.
Notes
- Despite losing the closer role following the signing of Kenley Jansen, Will Smith has pitched well for Atlanta so far this season — despite a bit of a downtick in strikeouts. That said, for whatever reason he just isn’t factoring into decisions at all as he has just one hold on the year compared to Tyler Matzek’s 6 and A.J. Minter’s 3. We’re still in the first month of the season but the usage here is not what we are looking for, especially with the other two lefties in the bullpen pitching well.
- We talked about Trevor Stephan on the Pod this week, and after diving a bit deeper into the changes he has made, I feel comfortable moving him up into this secondary holds tier despite coming off a not-so-great week. Stephan’s best pitch last year was arguably his splitter but he only threw it against lefties, leading to an 8.1% usage rate. This year however, he’s been using it as his primary offspeed offering against both sides, as it’s now up to 32.1% usage. Love to see these kinds of changes and it shows in his beautiful savant profile.
- We also talked about Drew Smith and how he should be in line for an increased role with Trevor May sidelined. Smith has quietly put together a nice career so far, and perhaps can take another step forward this season as one of the Mets’ top set-up options. Like with Stephan, Smith has made some changes this year, as instead of throwing a harder cutter, he’s throwing more of a traditional slider, taking 2 MPH off the pitch while his fastball has been almost a MPH harder. The Whiffs aren’t there yet for the pitch, but we can’t argue with a .166 xwOBA.
- While it may be due to a bunch of injuries, Luis García is back in a set up role and someone to keep an eye on once again. His fastball may get hit around a bit, but he has two plus secondaries in his slider and splitter. For now, I’d prefer Steven Wilson in this pen, at least until we get a sense of what his ceiling can be, but you certainly can’t go wrong with García either.
- Despite having a fantastic 2021, the Dodgers have been reluctant to use Alex Vesia in high leverage spots up until this past week. He belongs at the back end of that bullpen and it appears that will be the case moving forward. Expect more holds from Vesia, especially once the team starts playing against more left-handed heavy lineups.
- The Twins bullpen still seems like a work in progress, but Griffin Jax is certainly a name to keep an eye on here as a potential breakout candidate. As I talked about before, we love to see pitchers make repertoire/usage changes in an effort to improve output, and Jax definitely falls into that category now that he’s throwing his slider 51.5% of the time compared to 31.1% last season. His fastball is up 1.5 MPH moving into a bullpen role this year as well, but still remains a pitch he needs to be careful with. The good news is he’s only throwing it 22% of the time this year as compared to 46% in 2021.
Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
