(Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)
We haven’t seen much of Freddy Peralta, who got his first start since July 11th last night and it went poorly to a tune of 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. The dude got lit up. He surprisingly turned to his curveball over 20% of the time here – surprising only because he barely does that, but when you’re heater is getting crushed and walking batters, you’re going to find another answer. If you’re thinking of flat out dropping Peralta I understand – it’s 3+ walks in four straight – though I feel obligated to tell you that even with a 7 ER game, he still has a 3.74 ERA. His heater is still sporting a 13% whiff rate with a 54% zone rate. Not to mention its .151 BAA on a pitch he throws over 75% of the time. Yes he’s going to be terrible at times, he is as much a Cherry Bomb as they come, though I can imagine some teams that need the upside of Peralta to have a fighting chance. Don’t rage quit here.
Let’s see how every other SP did Wednesday:
Trevor Bauer – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. 37 CSW with 16 whiffs because duh. I’ve heard people wanting Bauer in the Top 5 and I don’t blame em. Maybe 6 ahead of Kershaw and Kluber. We’ll see.
Tanner Roark – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks. Whoa whoa whoa. After being terrible for so long, Roark found his deuce with his heater and had himself a day. Problem is, when I say terrible, I mean terrible. I just can’t get on board again after you’ve been struggling against teams like the Mets, Marlins, Phillies, and Jays prior. Sorry, bud.
Ryne Stanek – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Uggggh, Schultz was the three-inning guy here as I roll my eyes again and move on to better days. I need a term to write these off quickly. Ummmmm, I’ll need some help here, leave your best in the comments. Please, I need you.
Jon Gray – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. It was Coors and the Astros and Gray didn’t care. That’s two solid starts since returning from the minors – 2 ER, 3 BBs, 12 Ks in 14.1 IP – and the biggest change I’m seeing is a stronger focus on keeping his fastball down at the knees. I’m not too sure if this something that can help him maintain this success, but it sure is better than spotting it right. Down. The. Middle. Worth the flier if he’s treated like a leper on the wire.
Derek Holland – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. We’ve been talking about Holland a bit in the Discord server (come join us!) where it was mentioned how Holland moved to the 1B side of the rubber in the middle of June. I totally missed that before and I love it (you guys in the community chat, you’re awesome). Considering how Jeff Samardzija is laboring on the DL, Johnny Cueto isn’t what he once was, and Chris Stratton is a joke, Holland may be getting more chances moving forward. I’m all for it.
Jon Lester – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Hey, Lester stopped his freefall regression! Hey it was 28/103 CSW as his curveball and cutter return 2/38 whiffs! Nope nope nope.
Charlie Morton – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks. Morton went off the Coors and we had some hesitation, but we’ll definitely take this. Yes, four walks n all, though he had allowed just two in each of his last four starts. I feel very on edge with Morton these days given his horrid injury history + momentary lapses through the season + a walk rate nearing 10%, but you best continue rolling him there.
Martin Perez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Sure, whatever Perez.
Robbie Ray – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Ray got the Cubs and a lot of people wanted no part of it. After all, Ray was poor in three of his last four and these were the Cubs! But we got was Ray finding his curveball and cruising through seven frames. I didn’t see the overpowering of his heater like we have in vintage Ray starts, but this was the outing he needed to take a step forward. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was the launching pad for one of his patented dominant months.
Tyler Skaggs – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks. It’s nice when a pitcher can show the other arms on the squad what you’re supposed to do against a terrible offense. Fastballs up, Curveballs down en route to 33/96 CSW overall. Y’all know I question if his elevated four-seamer is enough, but it doesn’t matter. You start Skaggs.
Jake Arrieta – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Arrieta pumped the zone with sliders – 26/30 for strikes! – and it paid off for him as his sinker did good work as well against the Dodgers. Still hesitant to buy in given his repertoire not speaking to constant success, but there’s a reason he’s Spiderman, king of the Tobys.
Matt Boyd – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. This is Boyd’s second straight solid start and I’m a little intrigued. Not enough to stop Boyd Watching as, you know, Blame it on the Royals, but I’ll see what happens next time.
Luis Cessa – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Luis got the start against the Rays and was fine. He’s a Cup of Schmo and not worth your time in 12-teamers so fly out of here like a Cessa 172…I got you, pilots. I got you.
Mike Leake – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. This is the kind of boring start that Leake lives on. He now has 11 strikeouts in his last four games combined. Yeah.
Corey Oswalt – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. The False King got the Padres and was fine. I guess. He got the dub because the Mets happened to put up 4 ER after his final frame and that’s cool. I mean, you’re still a Cup of Schmo n stuff.
Sal Romano – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Romano was just one off from a Gallows Pole at 16 whiffs, surprisingly enough, and he had himself a decent game against the Cardinals. Bad news is that this is his ceiling and it’s just not enough to deal with the floor of a 5.07 ERA and 6.46 K/9.
Jameson Taillon – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Taillon got the Indians and showed no signs of slowing down. Just kidding, he only threw 11 sliders in this outing, good for 1 CSW. WHAT. No. No no no no. This isn’t how it’s supposed to be. Only 8 whiffs overall in 89 pitches and while I’m very happy with the result, I’ve been super into Taillon because of that slider. Where did it go and what have you done to it. It would be too rash to make a move based on this one start, so we hold back for now, though you best show me that slide piece next time. YOU BETTER.
Jack Flaherty – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Flaherty ran into a 2-run shot in the first and that was about it. I’m a little disappointed that he’s survived a full six frames just five times in 16 starts, preventing his near 30% strikeout rate to truly breathe but hopefully as he gets more time he’ll begin to figure out how to lengthen his starts. We believe in you.
Sam Gaviglio – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Our Call Boy did nothing to help, which means I’m taking yet another L. Streaming Record: 59-35. I just can’t reach #60, can I.
Ervin Santana – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Santana had a DLH and was throwing 3mph slower than last year without whiffs on his slider. Yeah, I’m waiting here. A lot.
Walker Buehler – 4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Bleeeegh. 29/90 CSW is fine and I didn’t see anything here that really startled me, but it didn’t go Buehler’s way and you want better, especially against the Phillies. I’d expect a rebound next time out against the Brewers.
Edwin Jackson – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Ahhhh there’s the EJax we know and hate. Maybe with fewer walks than normal but this is…well, bad. That’s good as you definitively know what to do now. Nothing. You want nothing to do with EJax.
Clayton Richard – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. It’s the wrong Clayton! I was actually at this game as my sister and brother-in-law visited town and I have to say, sitting and enduring Richard’s mechanics is something else. Shudders. Oh and just one strikeout against the Mets? HASTFMFWT?!
James Shields – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Jimmy Bucklers wasn’t able to matain the ridiculous ERA stretch he’s been on, but he somehow also walked away with a Gallows Pole at 17 whiffs. Yeah, I’m shocked too.
Danny Duffy – 5.2 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Awwwwww. I kinda wanted this to be a thing where we go a full 180 on Duffy and he’s a saving grace for the second half. I’m not completely writing off that possibility, but this was the Tigers and this should have been plenty better.
Nick Kingham vs. New York Mets – How is he owned in under 20% of leagues still. How.
Pablo Lopez vs. Washington Nationals – There’s some upside here and the Nationals are not scaring me.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jaime Barria vs. Seattle Mariners – I don’t want to do this. Only other options are Brett Anderson vs. Coors, Lucas Giolito vs. Jays, Francisco Liriano vs. Indians, Trevor Williams vs. Mets and Trevor Richards vs. Nationals SO HERE I AM.
Game of the Day
Nick Kingham vs. Steven Matz – Not many interesting games today, so why not, let’s watch some Kingham. Oh and I guess Matz too.
Can Beeks or Reid-Foley break into the top 100 this year or at least be useful?
A while ago I read your article on Skaggs in Fangraphs. Since then, I see you have lingering doubts and yet his ranking has risen. Can you share with us what he’s doing right?
Definitely – it’s the elevated four-seamer that is getting things done. Love to see the near 12% whiff rate on it.
I still don’t love the overall skillset, but there’s something to be said about a guy not letting his ship get rocked – often times I don’t like a pitcher because if one element isn’t there in a given day, then the other options aren’t enough to salvage the start. He’s been consistent with his stuff across the board and there’s something to be said about that.
[General] Would you be okay with dropping a SP ranked 80-100 here for a UR streamer on Sunday?
[Specific] Drop Mahle to add Bucholtz on Sunday? Seems like Mahle is borderline top 100 as it is, so that’s probably my answer. :)
Yep! Outside the Top 80 are generally just streaming options themselves.
I’m cool with that swap.
Why is Patrick Corbin 20th on the Pitcher List? He’s 2nd in xFIP, 4th in FIP, 9th in K/9, 7th in K/BB, 10th in WHIP, 14th in GB%, and 17th in ERA. Seems like top 10, no?
There’s a sense that he shouldn’t be doing what he is doing. He’s giving up a lot of hard contact, his velocity is down, he’s never pitched this well before, he’s got a history of injury problems….
Very good point. But Greinke’s hard hit rate is the same, and he’s successful (and in the same park)
Re: Taillon and his slider usage.
You got me thinking so I looked it up, yup the Indians lead the league in slugging against the slider. By a lot.
Am I reading Fangraphs right when I see that Freddy Peralta’s fastball was averaging under 90mph yesterday? Is that normal?
Hi Nick! I love all of your works!
I have a question. Can you order Eovaldi(Ver. Red Sox), Gibson, Jon Gray and Sonny Gray??
Edit: please order with Bundy too!
My first nickname for Rays opener is “Orange Slice”, might be good for you, but it’s small and only part of a balanced breakfast. Plus the Rays play at Tropicana Field. Bad outing can then be an “Orange Peel”, just covering up for what’s better behind it
I rather take T. Williams vs the Mets over Barria vs the Mariners.
Maybe a “pick up line” aka an opener for a relief pitcher that gets thrown at the start of a game for an inning or two. Anybody with multiple such good appearances is obviously a “pick up artist”, and the guy behind the opener is the “Sloppy Second.”
What about calling them Glen Gary’s after the famous “closer” scene from the movie?
How about “soup or salad”?
Is Gibson a “maybe” against the Sawx today?