Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Zach Eflin (TB) vs MIN (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 101 pitches.
I wanted to take a moment to appreciate Zach Eflin as he’s found his groove this season. The Twins had no shot dealing with a barrage of curveballs, cutters, and sinkers, the latter two stealing 18 called strikes between them, while the curve earned whiffs and outs, catalyzing a 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 101 pitches victory in Minnesota.
It’s a pretty remarkable three-pitch mix. Eflin’s sinker holds a fantastic 35%+ O-Swing to go with its 25% called strike rate, the cutter’s 71% strike rate gets the job done in the zone, and that curve boasts a 90th percentile O-Swing at a 41% clip, propelling six frames constantly for a Rays team that desperately needs to give their bullpen a break every five games.
Eflin’s emphasis on curveballs and the addition of the cutter have turned him into a new animal in 2023. There will be some bumps in the road as the cutter and sinker allow some hard contact, but it’ll be worth it. You could say his success has been ineffable. Did you just write that in case some didn’t understand the headline? …maybe.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Taijuan Walker (PHI) vs DET (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 91 pitches.
Jeeeeez congrats on the Gold Star Walker. The splitter showed up out of nowhere to demoralize the Tigers for 10/42 whiffs at 46% usage, while the sinker and four-seamer combined for 11 called strikes and stayed out of the way. This absolutely was a game where the splitter did all the work and that’s not a bet I like taking for next time.
Lucas Giolito (CWS) @ NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 100 pitches.
Ummmm that’s a 94.2 mph fastball with a legit slider and low changeup. Hey, can you please replicate this for another start to make sure we can actually believe it’s real this time? Because this was awesome.
John Brebbia (SF) @ COL (ND) – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 15% CSW, 26 pitches.
We got 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks of Sean Manaea across 83 pitches as the slider was super loopy as it sat 4.5 ticks down in this one. Maybe I’ll blame Coors for the poor results as I do think this is a better version of Manaea. Maybe I’ll also shake my fist at my wall panels for never staying up for long. There are so many ways to spend my time refusing to pick up Manaea.
Jesús Luzardo (MIA) vs KC (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 86 pitches.
It’s a wonderful feeling when a pitcher gets the results his arsenal deserves. This is what happens when BABIP doesn’t decide to serve you the last banana of the bunch every day. This one is all lumpy and overipe. DEAL WITH IT. His slider returned a stupid good 52% CSW and that was with an array of terrible misses in the dirt, while the change and four-seamer cooked inside the zone. With a solid schedule ahead, he’s on the path of redemption, y’all. This is it.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs HOU (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 101 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. How did I ever doubt you in the pre-season? What is wrong with me.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) @ SD (W) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 97 pitches.
You love to see it from Gilbert, especially when it included a slider that returned 41% CSW across 34 thrown. Wait, not the splitter? Nope, that was just 2/11 whiffs. The slider landed in the zone plenty and the Padres couldn’t handle it, pairing incredibly well with the heater. Huh. I sure hope this is a real thing we can bank on moving forward.
James Kaprielian (OAK) @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 5 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 104 pitches.
Talk about a Dusty Donut with that horrid WHIP and just one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) but hey, you got your Win. Be happy.
Shane Bieber (CLE) vs BOS (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 95 pitches.
Bieber produced for you and yet, he may have lowered his 17% strikeout rate with this outing. I have to open the door slightly for the slider and curve to return, but it really does seem like he’s turned into a Toby – not a Holly. It’s a wild world.
Joe Musgrove (SD) vs SEA (ND) – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 102 pitches.
Some wonderful pitch separation here from Musgrove with his curve, slider, and change all sticking low while the four-seamer and cutter played well at the top of the zone. He’s finding his rhythm, y’all.
Tyler Alexander (DET) @ PHI (L) – 3.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 45 pitches.
Oh hey, it’s T-Lex! Welp, see ya later.
James Paxton (BOS) @ CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 25 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 106 pitches.
YESSSSS. Do you now believe? That’s a Gallows Pole with 25 whiffs as Paxton had the fastball & cutter combo working beautifully. We’re talking 15/72 whiffs on the four-seamer while the cutter exploded for a 33% SwStr rate and 43% CSW. Sure, the curve and change took a backseat, but that’s for a good reason as they weren’t needed. I’ve been waiting so long for this reality to return for Paxton and I’m so happy for Big Maple.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) vs BAL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 98 pitches.
Ahhhhh THERE he is. That’s a King Cole with the only blemish being a two-run shot from…um…Aaron Hicks. After a start where his heater lacked and the breakers stepped up, I’m glad to see the four-seamer go 44% CSW and 15/66 whiffs while the breakers returned 58% strikes. That’s fine with me, just don’t be sub 50% and please keep this four-seamer command in the upper half. You’re so much better there.
Kyle Gibson (BAL) @ MIL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 96 pitches.
Wait. Gibson actually came through in a good matchup?! Unpredictable as ever. THAT RASCAL.
Hayden Wesneski (CHC) @ LAA (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 73 pitches.
Just 3 whiffs and 19% CSW is enough to tell you that he’s not dominating enough with the sweeper to get me anywhere hyped enough to chase Wesneski again. Like a group of pounds and kilos trying to describe their identities, we wait. You’ve outdone yourself. I try.
Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs CWS (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 79 pitches.
I’m surprised to see Schmidt last six full frames for a PQS, and for those in non-QS leagues, this was a 4.50 ERA, no Win, and just one strikeout (HAISTBMBWT?!) to earn that 1.00 WHIP. Doesn’t feel worth it, does it? He doesn’t have a stellar putaway offering and that cutter sits too often in the middle of the zone (three hits on broadway cutters). He’s not the guy to chase.
Hunter Brown (HOU) @ TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 96 pitches.
We’ll absolutely take a PQS with a 1.00 WHIP and five strikeouts against the Jays. The four-seamer sneaked by for a 28% called strike rate and his slider returned plenty of outs inside the zone. I wouldn’t call this a fantastic command game for Brown as he went just two pitches, but huge props to him for finding a way to get through the Jays without his best stuff.
Tony Gonsolin (LAD) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 92 pitches.
He allowed 3 ER in the first then settled down to go four scoreless. The regression is hitting a little bit here, but I actually liked what Gonsolin did here. Save for a fair share of clearly wasted pitches, he spotted his heaters, sliders, curves, and splitters well. Sometimes it just is like that.
Dinelson Lamet (COL) vs SF (L) – 3.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
This line is a sad reminder of the man we never saw for a full year. I still dream of one of the best parts of a horrid 2020 year.
Bryce Elder (ATL) vs NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 101 pitches.
Sure, it’s a terrible ERA, but the 1.00 WHIP, eight strikeouts and a Win are fantastic. That slider was brilliant once again at 49% CSW and the sinker + four-seamer managed to allow just two hits on the night. Yes, all four runs came off two longballs from a pair of low sliders. Go figure. We’re still starting him as the season of expected regression continues onward.
Dane Dunning (TEX) vs STL (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 98 pitches.
This start reads like you just paid $20 for a bottle of water. You’re thirsty and were desperate for a Win, but ohhhhh boy is this going to stick with you. At least we can all agree that Dunning isn’t a Vargas Rule any longer and can be left to the wire, yeah? Cool.
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs CHC (W) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 94 pitches.
Nope. Anderson entered this game with a 13.8% strikeout rate, if you can believe it. What a difference a season makes.
Carlos Carrasco (NYM) @ ATL (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
At least the changeup returned 8/32 whiffs and hey! His fastball sat 93 mph, nearly back to normal. He gets the Yankees + Astros next, though, and while I did like the command of the change and slider, I’m not totally sold.
Jake Irvin (WSH) vs ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 83 pitches.
I’ll take predictable outcomes for $200. We’re very obviously not starting Irvin so I don’t even know why you’re still reading this. Go on, do something else, like read a book or something.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) @ TEX (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 85 pitches.
It was Texas, of course it wasn’t going to go well. His velocity was dramatically down across the board, though, sitting a full tick if not two on every offering. Stay very far away as we hope Liberatore can get it sorted out in the future. Does that make him–Yep. A Frozen Banana.
Mitch Keller (PIT) vs OAK (L) – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 20% CSW, 101 pitches.
Against the Athletics?! Really?! Man, the moment I start believing in Keller, a guy who legit deserved his success with stellar command for a good while, he turns into a pumpkin. Seriously, his fastballs + sliders returned 0/79 whiffs across 31 swings. That’s not a typo. The thing is, he’s fanned at least eight in each of his last seven games and it boggles my mind that he fell so flat on his face here. I know the ERA has had it rough the last three starts now (10 ER across his previous two), but I still feel you have to stick it out given his prior strikeout success and improved overall command. What a season this is.
Zack Greinke (KC) @ MIA (L) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 77 pitches.
Greinke does what Greinke does. Is that a saying or something? That’s my way of saying we don’t start him in fantasy but enjoy him from afar. Like a sparrow enjoying the morning dew as it slips on the branch ever so slightly before flying to the next tree? Sure. Oddly specific, but sure.
Tommy Henry (ARI) @ WSH (ND) – 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 81 pitches.
Not even the Arizona defense could save you today, Henry. Why not?! Because you threw 5/16 changeup strikes as your #2 pitch, that’s why. Oh.
Louie Varland (MIN) @ TB (L) – 6.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Oh no. Kinda wild to see a 48% CSW four-seamer and such destruction regardless. I’ve been generally impressed with Varland’s overall command this season and this was a step back. Pro tip: you don’t want to do that against the Rays. Varland has the Jays next to conclude his horrific gauntlet and while there’s a chance he pitches like he did against Houston, this game should be enough of a detriment.
Luke Weaver (CIN) vs LAD (ND) – 3.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 86 pitches.
When Weaver can’t confidently turn to his changeup, you know he’s in trouble. Isn’t he normally in trouble? Yeah, so you can imagine what this would be like. Ohhhhhhh.
Game of the Day
Reese Olson vs. Zack Wheeler – I’m happy to get another look at Olson (via the worst camera angle in baseball at Philly. Ugh.) while we all want Wheeler to be back to his normal self.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
Deterrent not detriment