Sit/Start Week 8: Reviewing All Starting Pitcher Matchups From 5/17-5/23

Lucas Zenobi scores every starting pitcher matchup for the week ahead.

Welcome back to Sit/Start, where every Saturday here at Pitcher List, we review all expected starting pitcher matchups for the week ahead.  I will be carrying over Max Freeze’s ranking system from last year.

There are three labels: StartMaybe, and Sit. Starts are sure-fire starts for those particular pitchers. This does not mean that they are incapable of having a bad outing, but I consider them more likely than not to have a good outing if they are designated as a Start.

However, the degree of confidence I have in a pitcher to have a strong outing is judged by their number in the tier. For example, I am much more confident that a Start-10 will have a good outing over a Start-7, even though I expect both to perform well.

The same goes for the other tiers. Maybes are starts that are a bit riskier, but depending on your league size or roster requirements, they may need to be used. A Start-10 is a pitcher who I believe will almost definitely have a strong outing, for example, Shane Bieber at the Detroit Tigers. A Sit-1 is a pitcher who under no circumstances you should consider starting.

We’re starting to see some new pitchers coming into the mix. Take a look below, and see how your rotation shapes up this week. Feel free to question my rankings in the comments, and let’s discuss!

 

Monday – 5/17
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/17 SFG at CIN Webb Maybe-6 Gray Start-8
5/17 NYM at ATL Walker Maybe-4 Fried Maybe-6
5/17 CHW at MIN Keuchel Maybe-4 Happ Sit-1
5/17 WSN at CHC Lester Sit-3 Alzolay Start-7
5/17 NYY at TEX Cole Start-10 Lyles Sit-1
5/17 CLE at LAA Hentges Sit-1 Cobb Maybe-5
5/17 DET at SEA Mize Sit-2 Kikuchi Start-8
5/17 ARI at LAD Bumgarner Maybe-4 Buehler Start-8
5/17 COL at SDP Gray Maybe-4 Darvish Start-8

 

Tuesday – 5/18
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/18 SFG at CIN DeSclafani Start-7 Castillo Maybe-5
5/18 MIA at PHI Neidert Sit-1 Wheeler Start-9
5/18 TBR at BAL Patino Sit-3 Harvey Sit-2
5/18 NYM at ATL Szapucki Sit-1 Davidson Sit-1
5/18 BOS at TOR Rodriguez Start-7 Ryu Start-7
5/18 CHW at MIN Lynn Start-8 Pineda Maybe-5
5/18 WSN at CHC Corbin Sit-1 Davies Sit-1
5/18 PIT at STL Brubaker Maybe-5 Gant Maybe-4
5/18 NYY at TEX Taillon Start-7 Foltynewicz Sit-2
5/18 MIL at KCR Woodruff Start-10 Bubic Maybe-5
5/18 CLE at LAA Plesac Maybe-6 Heaney Maybe-5
5/18 HOU at OAK Javier Maybe-4 Manaea Maybe-6
5/18 DET at SEA Turnbull Maybe-5 Dunn Sit-2
5/18 COL at SDP Gomber Sit-2 Snell Maybe-6
5/18 ARI at LAD Kelly Sit-1 Urias Start-7

 

Wednesday – 5/19
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/19 CHW at MIN Giolito Maybe-6 Shoemaker Sit-1
5/19 COL at SDP Chi Gonzalez Sit-1 Musgrove Start-9
5/19 SFG at CIN Gausman Start-7 Miley Maybe-5
5/19 MIA at PHI Rogers Start-8 Eflin Start-7
5/19 TBR at BAL Yarbrough Maybe-4 Means Start-8
5/19 NYM at ATL Peterson Sit-1 Morton Start-7
5/19 BOS at TOR Richards Maybe-5 Stripling Sit-1
5/19 WSN at CHC Scherzer Start-9 Arrieta Sit-2
5/19 PIT at STL Cahill Sit-2 Flaherty Start-8
5/19 NYY at TEX Kluber Maybe-6 Yang Sit-1
5/19 CLE at LAA Civale Maybe-5 Ohtani Maybe-6
5/19 MIL at KCR Burnes Start-10 Keller Sit-2
5/19 HOU at OAK Greinke Maybe-6 Montas Maybe-4
5/19 DET at SEA Skubal Sit-1 Gilbert Sit-3
5/19 ARI at LAD Smith Sit-1 Kershaw Start-9

 

Thursday – 5/20
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/20 SFG at CIN Cueto Maybe-4 Mahle Maybe-6
5/20 TBR at BAL Hill Maybe-4 Kremer Sit-2
5/20 NYY at TEX German Maybe-5 Dunning Maybe-6
5/20 WSN at CHC Ross Sit-1 Williams Sit-1
5/20 HOU at OAK Garcia Maybe-5 Irvin Maybe-4
5/20 MIN at LAA Thorpe Sit-1 Cobb Maybe-4
5/20 MIA at PHI Alcantara Start-8 Velasquez Maybe-4
5/20 PIT at ATL Crowe Sit-2 Smyly Sit-3
5/20 MIN at LAA Berrios Maybe-6 Canning Maybe-4
5/20 BOS at TOR Pivetta Maybe-4 Matz Sit-3
5/20 ARI at LAD Kelly Sit-1 Price Sit-3

 

Friday – 5/21
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/21 BAL at WSN Lopez Sit-1 Strasburg Sit-2
5/21 CHW at NYY Rodon Start-7 Montgomery Maybe-4
5/21 BOS at PHI Perez Maybe-4 Nola Start-7
5/21 MIN at CLE Maeda Maybe-5 McKenzie Sit-1
5/21 MIL at CIN Houser Maybe-4 Hoffman Sit-2
5/21 NYM at MIA Stroman Start-7 Holloway Maybe-4
5/21 PIT at ATL Anderson Sit-3 Anderson Start-8
5/21 TBR at TOR Glasnow Start-8 Kay Sit-1
5/21 HOU at TEX Ivey Sit-3 Gibson Maybe-5
5/21 DET at KCR Urena Maybe-4 Minor Sit-2
5/21 CHC at STL Hendricks Maybe-4 Martinez Maybe-4
5/21 ARI at COL Frankoff Sit-2 Marquez Sit-2
5/21 OAK at LAA Kaprielian Maybe-4 Quintana Sit-3
5/21 LAD at SFG Bauer Start-8 Wood Maybe-6
5/21 SEA at SDP Flexen Sit-2 Paddack Maybe-6

 

Saturday – 5/22
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/22 CHW at NYY Cease Maybe-6 Cole Start-9
5/22 ARI at COL Bumgarner Maybe-4 Senzatela Sit-1
5/22 HOU at TEX McCullers Start-8 Lyles Sit-1
5/22 BAL at WSN Zimmermann Sit-1 Lester Sit-3
5/22 PIT at ATL Keller Sit-1 Wilson Sit-1
5/22 DET at KCR Boyd Maybe-4 Singer Maybe-5
5/22 MIN at CLE Happ Sit-3 Bieber Start-8
5/22 NYM at MIA Lucchesi Sit-2 Lopez Start-7
5/22 MIL at CIN Anderson Sit-1 Gray Start-8
5/22 LAD at SFG Buehler Start-7 Menez Sit-1
5/22 CHC at STL Alzolay Maybe-6 Mikolas Sit-2
5/22 BOS at PHI Eovaldi Maybe-6 Anderson Sit-1
5/22 TBR at TOR McClanahan Maybe-5 Ray Start-7
5/22 SEA at SDP Sheffield Sit-1 Weathers Maybe-5
5/22 OAK at LAA Bassitt Maybe-6 Bundy Maybe-6

 

Sunday – 5/23
Date Game Away Pitcher Sit / Start Home Pitcher Sit / Start
5/23 CHW at NYY Keuchel Maybe-4 Taillon Maybe-6
5/23 BOS at PHI Rodriguez Maybe-6 Wheeler Start-7
5/23 BAL at WSN Harvey Sit-2 Corbin Sit-3
5/23 TBR at TOR Fleming Maybe-4 Ryu Start-8
5/23 MIN at CLE Ober Sit-1 Plesac Maybe-5
5/23 NYM at MIA Reid-Foley Maybe-4 Poteet Sit-3
5/23 MIL at CIN Peralta Start-8 Castillo Maybe-5
5/23 PIT at ATL Brubaker Maybe-5 Fried Start-8
5/23 DET at KCR Mize Sit-2 Bubic Maybe-5
5/23 HOU at TEX Javier Maybe-5 Foltynewicz Sit-1
5/23 ARI at COL Martin Sit-1 Gray Maybe-4
5/23 LAD at SFG Urias Start-8 DeSclafani Maybe-6
5/23 OAK at LAA Manaea Maybe-5 Heaney Maybe-5
5/23 SEA at SDP Kikuchi Maybe-4 Darvish Start-9
5/23 CHC at STL Davies Sit-1 Wainwright Maybe-4

 

 

 

 

Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)

Lucas Zenobi

Lucas Zenobi is a graduate of the University of Pittsburgh and a life-long Pittsburgh Pirates fan. His other interests include film, music, and any and all things Pittsburgh.

  • Avatar Alan2112 says:

    Hi,
    Why are Kikuchi and Brubaker left off the list? They both have two starts according to CBS.

  • Avatar Sean says:

    Coming off of a 7 inning, 9k gem with no walks… Nick in his recap called him ‘brilliant’ and removed the TIARA tag. “Corbin was better than we could have dreamed”. Sitting 92.7, ‘higher than any season average on his FB’ with ‘impeccable’ location. “Welcome back Patty C”…

    A “Sit-1” grade doesn’t add up here? I love cross referencing you guys with BaseballHQ who grades the Corbin start @CHC very favorably (+1.3 is in well above the +.77 threshold for a 75th percentile start in a 12-team mixed).

    As I’m digging around I think I’ve got my answer in that Pollock’s a bit higher on Corbin than you with a ‘probably start’ tag on him today. I’d love to hear the logic behind the sit as I am in a ’12-start max’ league and have 16 starts dialed in. Corbin is penciled in for both.

    • Lucas Zenobi Lucas Zenobi says:

      I don’t think Corbin’s recent and brief stretch of solid starts is him turning things around. His slider just isn’t performing as it used to, and when he doesn’t have that, he doesn’t really have anything else. He rates toward the bottom 5-7 percent of the league in all of these: xwOBA allowed, xERA, xBA allowed, and xSLG allowed. Simply put, hitters are (or should be) teeing off on him. Each of his starts has the ability to end in disaster. It’s a tight-rope walk.

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