Prospect Wars: The Top 100 Hitting Prospects

Travis Sherer and I have taken an immeasurable amount of minutes and a lot of thought (comparatively speaking to our normal amount of thinking) into the list below. Travis published an article yesterday discussing how we developed our list and what went into our less-than-scientific formulas. Later this week, we will each release a piece highlighting some names in which we differed – for better or worse – to provide some additional in depth analysis on the arms below.

Also, in case you are interested, here’s the plan for our releases over the next two weeks:

Prospect Wars Schedule: Methodology Rankings Travis’ Ranking Highlights Adam’s Ranking Highlights On the Farm Podcast
Top 100 Pitchers June 24 June 25 June 26 June 27 July 5
Top 100 Hitters July 1 July 2 July 3 July 4 July 5

 

So here it is, without further adieu:

Top 100 Hitting Prospects

NAMEAdam RankTravis RankComposite RankDifference
Wander Franco211.51
Yordan Alvarez142.5-3
Keston Hiura4232
Jo Adell3330
Luis Robert565.5-1
Bo Bichette9574
Alex Kirilloff137106
Adley Rutschman128104
Carter Kieboom111010.51
Vidal Brujan101211-2
Gavin Lux14911.55
Andrew Vaughn1911158
Nick Madrigal151615.5-1
Cristian Pache82315.5-15
Kyle Tucker62616-20
Nolan Gorman221518.57
Joey Bart201718.53
George Valera172119-4
Luis Urias73320-26
Alec Bohm182722.5-9
Jerred Kelenic2719238
Drew Waters163023-14
Jesus Sanchez212925-8
Trevor Larnach242826-4
Taylor Trammell292426.55
Royce Lewis282526.53
Marco Luciano34222812
Nico Hoerner233428.5-11
Bobby Witt Jr.431830.525
Brendan Rodgers53133340
Cavan Biggio254334-18
Julio Rodriguez50203530
Yusniel Diaz334539-12
Nate Lowe651439.551
Triston Casas325041-18
Heliot Ramos374742-10
Kristian Robinson4640436
Ryan Mountcastle355645.5-21
Jordan Groshans553846.517
Xavier Edwards61395022
Jarren Duran445851-14
Jonathan India307351.5-43
Travis Swaggerty396552-26
Dylan Carlson267952.5-53
Ke'Bryan Hayes60465314
Antonio Cabello674857.519
Leody Taveras625558.57
Nolan Jones76425934
Monte Harrison477259.5-25
J.J. Bleday705361.517
Estevan Florial645961.55
Trent Grisham547062-16
Jazz Chisholm527563.5-23
Brendan McKay319965-68
Nick Solak824965.533
Keibert Ruiz101316670
Daulton Varsho1013266.569
C.J. Abrams72626710
Josh Naylor498567-36
Seth Beer983767.561
Riley Greene101356866
Jasson Dominguez1013668.565
Andres Gimenez3610168.5-65
Greg Jones716869.53
Seuly Matias3810169.5-63
Jorge Mateo4010170.5-61
Brayan Rocchio101417160
Isan Diaz4110171-60
Luis Garcia4210171.5-59
Luis Garcia4210171.5-59
Luis Arreaz1014472.557
Jordyn Adams4510173-56
Keoni Cavaco747876-4
Bobby Bradley5110176-50
Jake Fraley1015276.549
Austin Hays1015477.547
Brandon Marsh817477.57
Oneil Cruz639277.5-29
Mark Vientos966178.535
D'Shawn Knowles5610178.5-45
Brice Turang101577944
Luken Baker5710179-44
Victor Victor Mesa788179.5-3
Malcom Nunez5810179.5-43
Jahmai Jones5910180-42
Luis Garcia (WAS)1016080.541
Hunter Bishop689481-26
Robert Puason101638238
Brett Baty1016482.537
Sean Murphy1016683.535
Jake Cronenworth6610183.5-35
Zack Collins101678434
Mauricio Dubon101698532
Matt Thaiss6910185-32
Khalil Lee7310187-28
Julio Pablo Martinez7510188-26
Ronny Mauricio7710189-24
Shervyen Newton7910190-22
Tapacito Marcano8010190.5-21
Adam Haseley8310192-18
Josh Jung8410192.5-17
Kevin Cron8510193-16
Cedric Mullins8610193.5-15
Sheldon Neuse909894-8
Daz Cameron8710194-14
Lucius Fox8810194.5-13
Shed Long8910195-12
Bobby Dalbec9110196-10
Franklin Barretto9210196.5-9
Will Craig9310197-8
Bubba Thompson9410197.5-7
Abraham Toro9510198-6
Kyle Lewis9710199-4
Tyler Nevin99101100-2

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Adam Lawler

Fun dad. Generally tired. Follow me @TheStatcastEra.

sdf

Comments


Lion

Right off the bat question for Travis:

How are K Tucker and L Urias so low with how they are destroying AAA and done everything possible to prove themselves besides big league performance? I see you and Adam strongly differ on them both. Any particular reason?

@Adam:
Same question on Brendan Rogers and Nate Lowe?

Adam Lawler

Rodgers is a mixture of bad organizational development, road blocks at the big league level that would lead to consist PAs, and an inconsistent track record during his journey. I don’t see a situation where he receives 450+ PA in a season to figure himself out. Do you?

Nate Lowe: I said this in my methodology, but I’ll reiterate here. I fade 1B only prospects. The Rays have Diaz, Choi, and McKay eating up positional starts. Not only that, but the Rays don’t have a track record of producing prospects in his makeup. Remember how well regarded Jake Bauers used to be? I’m getting vibes that this organization may end up flipping him for other assets in the near future. Last, and take this as anecdotal, I’ve seen Bauer a dozen times at AAA and came away unimpressed.

Lion

Thanks for the explanation Adam! I am not necessarily for or against, but with such a large discrepancy between those four “upper ranked” prospects, it seemed worthy of further discussion. 🙂

Travis Sherer

Thanks for reading!

I think you inadvertently answered your own question, at least partly. First of all, everybody is killing it in Triple-A (it’s almost as if the ball is different this year…). Also, you just mentioned four prospects and I have none of them lower than 33. I don’t think that shows an excessive lack of confidence in any. The lowest is Urias who has been known to not have much power but has exploded this season (like everybody else) — that concerns me, especially since he has been very bad in two cups of coffee and he is without any clear path.

All of the things that Adam said about Rodgers can be said about Tucker. The Astros are a better organization than the Rockies, but there isn’t a clear path for him and the Astros have such a glut of prospects that he can never really be given proper time develop in the majors because if he doesn’t hit right away, there is another young outfielder waiting in the wings. Yes, he’s destroying Triple-A but he’s also in the Pacific Coast League — a notoriously hitter-friendly league — and with the new ball. Those two facts will definitely inflate his numbers. By how much? It’s hard to say. I do Tucker, and my ranking of 26 says two things: (1) proximity to the majors does not mean much to me, and (2) while he’s a nice prospect, I don’t believe in his ceiling like Adell, Kelenic, Kirilloff, Pache, Rodriguez, and Valera. I think his ceiling is the same as Larnach.

Travis Sherer

*I do like Tucker, and my ranking of 26 says two things: (1) proximity to the majors does not mean much to me, and (2) while he’s a nice prospect, I don’t believe in his ceiling like Adell, Kelenic, Kirilloff, Pache, Rodriguez, and Valera. I think his ceiling is the same as Larnach.

MJ

Biggio’s ranking makes sense, but curious if he is rising as we speak? His minor league numbers the past two years are impressive. Not mention his handling of mlb at bats to date. All of this coinciding with the adjustment(s) made at the plate.

RB

Can you give a couple of names that you feel will make the biggest jumps on these lists from midseason to preseason 2020?

Codie B

Thanks for the reply. Why did you downgrade Evan White, outside of his position? He is hitting .300, slugging .500, is close(in AA), is a great fielder, and has no one in front of him now after the Encarnacion trade. He might never be a big power hitter, but players who hit like him have a good chance of still posting more than solid numbers across the board. Just curious about your thoughts.

Adam Lawler

All of those numbers are fine. They’re not great, but they’re not bad. Then, you factor in his age relative to assignment and it’s like…”eh, yeah. OK, I guess.” But then you consider he’s a first baseman on top of all of that? Do I want or need an at best second division 1B on my roster? I could do worse, but probably not. In the end, I am properly whelmed by Evan White. Because I am just that, he doesn’t merit a top 100 designation, but he’s not very far off.

Also, to be sure, there is all star Danimal Vogelbach playing there at the moment and the wild man Dipoto is already floating available players for future assets. Any number of things can happen to block White from being a core piece to the future M’s squad.

Codie B

Thanks. I was surprised both you and Travis had George Valera ranked so high(I have him on my AL fantasy team). What is your take on him? Plus, I have X Edwards on my NL team. His potential skill set, and current results, look special, especially from a fantasy perspective. What do you think?

Dan

Any talk of Alek Thomas making the list? Only 19, has hit over .300 at every stop, plus sneaky Power/Speed combo potential in the future. 8/8 HR/SB so far in A ball with a .900 OPS. Close?

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