Prospect Wars: The Top 100 Hitting Prospects

Travis Scherer and Adam Lawler look at the top 100 pitching prospects.

Travis Sherer and I have taken an immeasurable amount of minutes and a lot of thought (comparatively speaking to our normal amount of thinking) into the list below. Travis published an article yesterday discussing how we developed our list and what went into our less-than-scientific formulas. Later this week, we will each release a piece highlighting some names in which we differed – for better or worse – to provide some additional in depth analysis on the arms below.

Also, in case you are interested, here’s the plan for our releases over the next two weeks:

Prospect Wars Schedule:MethodologyRankingsTravis’ Ranking HighlightsAdam’s Ranking HighlightsOn the Farm Podcast
Top 100 PitchersJune 24June 25June 26June 27July 5
Top 100 HittersJuly 1July 2July 3July 4July 5

 

So here it is, without further adieu:

[table id=83 /]

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@freshmeatcomm on Twitter)

Adam Lawler

Fun dad. Generally tired. Follow me @TheStatcastEra.

  • Avatar Lion says:

    Right off the bat question for Travis:

    How are K Tucker and L Urias so low with how they are destroying AAA and done everything possible to prove themselves besides big league performance? I see you and Adam strongly differ on them both. Any particular reason?

    @Adam:
    Same question on Brendan Rogers and Nate Lowe?

    • Avatar Adam Lawler says:

      Rodgers is a mixture of bad organizational development, road blocks at the big league level that would lead to consist PAs, and an inconsistent track record during his journey. I don’t see a situation where he receives 450+ PA in a season to figure himself out. Do you?

      Nate Lowe: I said this in my methodology, but I’ll reiterate here. I fade 1B only prospects. The Rays have Diaz, Choi, and McKay eating up positional starts. Not only that, but the Rays don’t have a track record of producing prospects in his makeup. Remember how well regarded Jake Bauers used to be? I’m getting vibes that this organization may end up flipping him for other assets in the near future. Last, and take this as anecdotal, I’ve seen Bauer a dozen times at AAA and came away unimpressed.

      • Avatar Lion says:

        Thanks for the explanation Adam! I am not necessarily for or against, but with such a large discrepancy between those four “upper ranked” prospects, it seemed worthy of further discussion. :)

    • Avatar Travis Sherer says:

      Thanks for reading!

      I think you inadvertently answered your own question, at least partly. First of all, everybody is killing it in Triple-A (it’s almost as if the ball is different this year…). Also, you just mentioned four prospects and I have none of them lower than 33. I don’t think that shows an excessive lack of confidence in any. The lowest is Urias who has been known to not have much power but has exploded this season (like everybody else) — that concerns me, especially since he has been very bad in two cups of coffee and he is without any clear path.

      All of the things that Adam said about Rodgers can be said about Tucker. The Astros are a better organization than the Rockies, but there isn’t a clear path for him and the Astros have such a glut of prospects that he can never really be given proper time develop in the majors because if he doesn’t hit right away, there is another young outfielder waiting in the wings. Yes, he’s destroying Triple-A but he’s also in the Pacific Coast League — a notoriously hitter-friendly league — and with the new ball. Those two facts will definitely inflate his numbers. By how much? It’s hard to say. I do Tucker, and my ranking of 26 says two things: (1) proximity to the majors does not mean much to me, and (2) while he’s a nice prospect, I don’t believe in his ceiling like Adell, Kelenic, Kirilloff, Pache, Rodriguez, and Valera. I think his ceiling is the same as Larnach.

      • Avatar Travis Sherer says:

        *I do like Tucker, and my ranking of 26 says two things: (1) proximity to the majors does not mean much to me, and (2) while he’s a nice prospect, I don’t believe in his ceiling like Adell, Kelenic, Kirilloff, Pache, Rodriguez, and Valera. I think his ceiling is the same as Larnach.

  • Avatar MJ says:

    Biggio’s ranking makes sense, but curious if he is rising as we speak? His minor league numbers the past two years are impressive. Not mention his handling of mlb at bats to date. All of this coinciding with the adjustment(s) made at the plate.

  • Avatar RB says:

    Can you give a couple of names that you feel will make the biggest jumps on these lists from midseason to preseason 2020?

  • Avatar Codie B says:

    I know you said you fade 1B, but how can’t Evan White make this list?

  • Avatar Codie B says:

    Thanks for the reply. Why did you downgrade Evan White, outside of his position? He is hitting .300, slugging .500, is close(in AA), is a great fielder, and has no one in front of him now after the Encarnacion trade. He might never be a big power hitter, but players who hit like him have a good chance of still posting more than solid numbers across the board. Just curious about your thoughts.

    • Avatar Adam Lawler says:

      All of those numbers are fine. They’re not great, but they’re not bad. Then, you factor in his age relative to assignment and it’s like…”eh, yeah. OK, I guess.” But then you consider he’s a first baseman on top of all of that? Do I want or need an at best second division 1B on my roster? I could do worse, but probably not. In the end, I am properly whelmed by Evan White. Because I am just that, he doesn’t merit a top 100 designation, but he’s not very far off.

      Also, to be sure, there is all star Danimal Vogelbach playing there at the moment and the wild man Dipoto is already floating available players for future assets. Any number of things can happen to block White from being a core piece to the future M’s squad.

      • Avatar Codie B says:

        Thanks. I was surprised both you and Travis had George Valera ranked so high(I have him on my AL fantasy team). What is your take on him? Plus, I have X Edwards on my NL team. His potential skill set, and current results, look special, especially from a fantasy perspective. What do you think?

  • Avatar Dan says:

    Any talk of Alek Thomas making the list? Only 19, has hit over .300 at every stop, plus sneaky Power/Speed combo potential in the future. 8/8 HR/SB so far in A ball with a .900 OPS. Close?

  • Avatar Hairstyles says:

    Great blog post. Things i would like to bring about is that laptop memory is required to be purchased but if your computer cannot cope with anything you do along with it. One can add two RAM memory boards having 1GB each, in particular, but not one of 1GB and one having 2GB. One should always check the maker’s documentation for one’s PC to ensure what type of memory space is needed.

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