Mahle’s splitter was oh so close to being a money pitch, hitting the zone 39.8% of the time, while getting a 14.2% SwStr% and 48.3% O-Swing.
Mahle’s curveball found the zone 46.7% of the time and held opposing batters to a .196/.250/.393 triple slash. His curve did a stellar job of keeping the ball on the ground with a 50% ground-ball rate.
Mahle’s fastball hit the zone 58.6% of the time and got a 25.4 K% despite a 7.9 SwStr% and 23.2 O-swing%.
Mahle only threw his cutter 6.7% of the time and batters hit the pitch hard, combining a 32.1 LD% with a 33.3 HR/FB% to allow a .477 wOBA.
Mahle throws his four-seamer at a wide variety of speeds with an average velocity of 92.5 mph nestled between a minimum velocity of 85.4 and a max velocity of 98.4 mph. With a pVal of -1.2, Mahle’s main pitch didn’t generate nearly enough whiffs (8.9 SwStr%) while walking far too many batters (11.6 BB%) and struggling with the long ball (18.8 HR/FB%), getting hit for a .273 BAA with a .185 ISO and a 127 wRC+.
While several of the peripheral stats for Mahle’s slider look solid (14.2 SwStr%, 39.1 O-swing%, 22.0 K-BB%), there are just as many that raise red flags (38.9 HR/FB%, .227 ISO, 37.0 LD%). Mahle is going to need to figure out how to keep this pitch in the yard and continue improving its swinging-strike rate if he wants it to become a real No. 2 pitch in 2019.
Mahle’s changeup was a complete disaster in 2018, putting together a rough -10.0 pVal over 241 pitches, perpetuated primarily through a -1.6 K-BB%. It also got hit for a .350 BAA with a .250 ISO and a 172 wRC+. If he ever wants this pitch to succeed, he is going to have to figure out a way to get more whiffs (8.3 SwStr%) without issuing so many free passes.