Spencer Turnbull

Age 28 SP
  • Born 09/18/1992
  • Bats R
  • Team: Detroit Tigers
2019 Statistics
2020 Prediction
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2.9% Thrown 86.7 MPH 12.8 CSW%
12.3% Thrown 80.4 MPH 28.5 CSW%
45.3% Thrown 93.6 MPH 28.6 CSW%
19.4% Thrown 94.1 MPH 19.5 CSW%
20.1% Thrown 86.5 MPH 26.4 CSW%

Turnbull’s rarely-used changeup appears pretty neutral; it hasn’t been hit hard, but it’s been hit often. It rarely misses bats and is so far an afterthought in Turnbull’s arsenal.

GIF made by Rich Holman. Blurb written by Nate Musser

Though Turnbull’s curve had a -5 pVAL in 2019, there may be a positive regression coming. His batted ball luck has been awful (.415 career BABIP), but other peripheral numbers support an effective deuce. There may be better results coming for Turnbull.

GIF made by Rich Holman. Blurb written by Nate Musser

Though his secondary offerings leave plenty to be desired, Turnbull’s heater is very good. It carried a sweet 14.7 pVal in 2019, and he’s held opposing batters to a .313 wOBA over the course of his short career.

GIF made by Rich Holman. Blurb written by Nate Musser

Turnbull dialed back his sinker usage from about 42.2% in limited 2018 action to 19.4% last season, and for good reason: Batters absolutely torched the pitch for a .346/.478/.486 slash line, good for a .420 wOBA. A well-above average 65.6% ground-ball rate may be his sinker’s only saving grace when it’s also posting a 25% HR/FB rate and earning a -11.1 pVAL.

GIF made by NP. Blurb written by Erik van Rheenen

Turnbull commanded his slider well in 2019, and managed a 35% O-Swing and only a .270 wOBA against. It’s easily his second best pitch, and we may see an uptick in usage in 2020.

GIF made by Rich Holman. Blurb written by Nate Musser
45.6% Thrown 93.9 MPH
22.0% Thrown 93.8 MPH
17.4% Thrown 81.1 MPH
12.9% Thrown 88.7 MPH
2.1% Thrown 86.2 MPH

His most used pitch at 42.2%. The sinker averaged 94.4 mph and had a horrid whiff rate of just 5.1% while allowing a .297 batting average and .349 wOBA.

Turnbull’s four-seamer had a surprisingly good whiff rate of 32.3% and did a great job at limiting hitters with a .125 wOBA and .100 batting average. Its cut action makes it a strong force inside his repertoire.

Turnbull’s primary breaking pitch with he threw 18.1% of the time and used much more against lefties (38/51). It had a whiff rate of 26.3% and a 25% chase rate along with a .330 wOBA allowed.

A much less used iteration of his fastball at just 12.4%. It showed some swing-and-miss ability with a 53.3% whiff rate but again we are dealing with the pitfalls of a very small sample here as he threw just 35 cutters in total last year across 16 IP.

First thing to note with Turnbull is that we have only a meager 16-inning sample. His changeup was his least used pitch at 6.4% and was used mostly against lefties (14/18). The batted-ball results were adequate with a .220 wOBA and .250 batting average allowed. Its whiff rate of 25% was relatively nondescript.

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