Chafin mixes both a four-seamer and sinker, and last year’s numbers with the mix were odd. The sinker was far more effective, depite a walk rate four times higher than the four-seamer, and a K rate a third lower. Contact just wasn’t there against the sinker, but the four-seamer was hit hard.
Steady numbers over the last three seasons are due in large part to a filthy slider that carries almost an 11:1 K/BB ratio. Over that stretch, the pitch’s SwStr% has slowly risen from 20 to 27%.
Chafin’s slider was the clear second option in his repertoire from a usage standpoint, but it was used as the main out pitch as evidenced by the 44.6 K%. Opposing hitters managed just a .183 batting average against the pitch in 2018 while slugging just .268. Despite that, pVal considered it a negative value pitch at -0.2.
It’s up for debate whether Chafin truly has two separate heaters, though it does appear that Chafin at the very least dabbled with a sinker in 2018, featuring the pitch to jam left-handers inside.
Averaging 93.6 mph in 2018, Chafin’s four-seam fastball was a quality weapon for him in 2018, limiting hitters to a .268 batting average against and just a .333 slugging percentage against. The pitch generated ground balls at a 52.9% clip, which helped Chafin manage an 83.4% contact rate against the pitch. Overall, it was his best offering in terms of pVal last year with a 5.0 mark.