Luis Patino vs NYY (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches.
With a handful of young arms jumping up The List last Monday, I was a little reticent to give Luis Patiño a push as he hadn’t quite displayed the ability of a stud quite yet, floundering an opportunity against Cleveland last week. Well, he got the Yankees today and it was glorious – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 97 pitches. He even had the brass to flirt with a King Cole while facing the man himself. I know what you’re thinking — Nick, is Patiño a must-add right now? The answer is a straightforward absolutely.
The youngin’ earned 19 whiffs using a mix of 96/97 mph heaters + a slider that returned 38% CSW. It’s Huascar Ynoa SZN in Florida, except the heater is the legit pitch and the slider is hoping to catch up. We’re talking 12/53 whiffs on four-seamers as he displayed good control and limited the overt wild pitches to only a handful. And even for the Rays, they let him go 97 pitches — 97! — and a full six frames. Somewhere, Blake Snell is in shambles. He has been for two months. Oh. Right. Anyway, it’s a small sample of success and who knows, the Rays could get another starter or two tomorrow, kicking Patiño back to Triple-A, but I’d pick him wherever I could for his potential start against the Mariners. The kid has the electricity you’re looking for and I’m thrilled to see it all come together.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Casey Mize vs BAL (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 88 pitches.
Wait, Mize. You’re not supposed to go 88 pitches, let alone a full seven frames. Don’t you know you’re shut down?! I’m a bit amazed he went seven frames easily with just two strikeouts and five whiffs (that screams TEEs) and I’d monitor what the Tigers say about this one. If he’s allowed to toss more than 80 pitches, he’s likely worth a pickup…after his Boston start next time out. In short, the stuff is not nearly as good as those ratios look — it’s a sinker/slider and neither are elite — and be careful here.
Freddy Peralta @ PIT (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 68 pitches.
First Mize, now Peralta. Unreal. I take no joy trying to predict innings/pitch counts and here’s a case of a pitcher being oddly efficient for once, allowing him to do more on less. It gave us no answers — will the Brewers keep him limited under 70 pitches or was this just a blowout where they didn’t need to push it? — and I guess I’ll raise Peralta a decent amount until we get more clarity. It’s funny, y’all know he’s dope when he pitches, so the ranking doesn’t really mean much — if he’s acting like a regular starter, then start him like an ace. Otherwise, you may want to move on. See? The actual act of playing fantasy is easy, it’s only the ranking that’s hard. Alright, I kid, I hope they let him go more, but I think it’s obvious Peralta will be limited severely across the final ten weeks of the year. Plan accordingly.
Hyun Jin Ryu @ BOS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 87 pitches.
Amazing. Ryu shoved for six frames despite just 2/17 whiffs on changeups, though he was able to convert slow balls and cutters into outs while his four-seamer was able to live rent-free inside the strike zone with 12 called strikes. It’s not the start that convinces me he’s turned the corner, but Cleveland is next and that should be fine. I’m still a bit worried for the rest of the second half, though.
Carlos Hernández vs CWS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ohhhhhh hello there. Carlos sat plenty slower than usual (96 mph vs. 98 mph), but it was a better commanded heater paired with solid sliders for strikes. He got a bit lucky through the outing and in all likelihood this was a Birthday Party — just seven whiffs is the dead giveaway — but hey, I hope it sticks.
Johnny Cueto vs LAD (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 77 pitches.
Look at you, Cueto. Making it work. There’s nothing new to report, he just made the fastball/slider/changeup approach get through nearly six frames for a night. Props.
Frankie Montas @ LAA (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 24 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 109 pitches.
“Of course you did” — Nick said, looking at this line for the first time. His splitter went 13/41 whiffs, four-seamer went 54% CSW, and the sinker/slider got strikes and outs. I was serious when I said y’all should be blindly starting him now. Think of a Vargas Rule but for actually dope pitchers. That’s what Montas is doing and I have no idea how long it’ll last. Let it ride, let it ride. Enjoy that Golden Goal, you beautiful man.
Joe Musgrove vs COL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 11 Ks – 21 Whiffs, 40% CSW, 91 pitches.
Phew. Musgrove took full advantage of Rockie Road by earning a share of the King Cole as he upped his fastball usage to 25%. That’s more than sub-20%! And while those pitches themselves weren’t great, it made his slider and curveball better, with the sweeper earning a massive 59% CSW and the yacker going 42%. You love to see it.
Kyle Freeland @ SD (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 19% CSW, 91 pitches.
Nine baserunners. One run. Of course, Freeland, of course. Some may be calling for a Vargas Rule as Freeland has allowed just nine earned runs across his last seven starts. Please don’t, I don’t want to see you get hurt. This is a TEEs. You don’t want a TEEs on your roster.
Max Scherzer @ PHI (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 88 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. Now he’s a part of the Dodgers, and you can bet your bottom dollar he’s going to excel. A higher win potential is all Scherzer needed.
Drew Smyly @ NYM (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 85 pitches.
Smyly left his previous start early with a knee injury and even if his whole season looked a bit like this line, I can’t help but wonder if he was still dealing with it here. Either way, y’all don’t want no part of this
Alec Mills vs CIN (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 96 pitches.
I’m floored. Mills was able to produce a VPQS without earning a single strikeout. HAISTBMBWT?! I’m shocked. You just don’t see a man surviving for six frames like that.
Luis Castillo @ CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 105 pitches.
Hmmm, I guess I’m okay with a VPQS from Castillo. Not thrilled about it, especially when the changeup that had apparently returned last start went just 1/20 whiffs here. His fastball sat a whopping 98 mph, though, and his slider went 43% CSW, but man, I want that famous changeup back. I feel for it in 2017 and I need it in my life again.
Zack Wheeler vs WSH (L) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 100 pitches.
Aces gonna…meh. He went all seven innings of this but ran into trouble in the seventh (Careful, Icarus) and that was that. He’s still fantastic (42% CSW on 31 four-seamers) and this start changes nothing.
Chad Kuhl vs MIL (L) – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
If he had two more outs in him, I’d call it a win, but nah. This helps no one. Streaming Record: 64-47. His slider is still fantastic, it’s just an issue of everything else, including a fastball sitting just above 93 mph. If only that heater can take a major step forward…If only.
Dylan Bundy vs OAK (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches.
Ohhhhh right. This was happening today. Welp, nothing to report here, keep doing your best to forget about Bundy’s 2021 (hey, at least April was okay…?). Man, I really thought he’d turn it around once he started doing poorly in May. I really did.
David Price @ SF (L) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 64 pitches.
Blegh. With the Dodgers getting Max Scherzer and Josiah Gray going the other way, there are technically no lost spots in the rotation for now with Clayton Kershaw on the IL. But when he comes back, will Price or Gonsolin get the hook? I’ve been leaning Gonsolin, but this mediocrity isn’t helping Price’s case, especially when he’s earning 1/29 whiffs on changeups and cutters. I was calling this one the first real test for Price, and I’m sad to see him stumble. He’ll have to recover against the Astros next week and I’m perfectly fine pushing him to the waiver wire instead. The ceiling isn’t what it used to be and the floor is a reliever role in two weeks.
Patrick Corbin @ PHI (ND) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 86 pitches.
Sigh. FINE. Look, you can’t blame me for at least being a little interested in Corbin as he peaked his velocity last time out and even though he sat 92/93 mph here, he’s still missing that command. Leave him on the wire, my intrigue is gone. My day is ruined.
Carlos Rodón @ KC (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 74 pitches.
This is getting a little scary as it’s Rodón’s second straight start under 95 mph (he sat 97 mph in the start prior). It’s also the second straight outing he was pulled a little early and it’s hard not to get a bit spooked by it. I’m personally going to be brave and start him in a repeat matchup against the Royals next week, but man do I want that velocity to come back as he goes at least five strong. You got this Carlos.
Cristopher Sánchez vs WSH (ND) – 0.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 1 Whiffs, 13% CSW, 15 pitches.
Christopher led the bullpen game and showcased why it’s not great to have a bullpen game. Thanks, Christopher.
Alexander Wells @ DET (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Alls Wells That Ends ties with Wells. I think that’s how it goes.
Taijuan Walker vs ATL (L) – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 87 pitches.
Oh no. That’s another tough outing and while the strikeouts did return a bit, the command did not. Remember, there’s nothing in his repertoire to save him when the fastball can’t survive on its own, and this is becoming a problem. On one hand, we didn’t expect Taijuan to be a legit arm for all six months, but on the other, we initially expected him to be a 4.50-ERA arm and that’s kinda what we’re getting now. Look, I’m not saying drop Walker, just exploring the possibility that things are crashing down for him after overperforming for about three months. Then again, he is throwing 94/95 mph with his fastball still. Whatever, it’s Miami next, surely he can’t fail in that one…right?
Eduardo Rodríguez vs TOR (L) – 3.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
The Jays came to swat and swat they did, save for doing an obnoxious prank call that I’ve never found funny. Look, let’s be real. It’s the Blue Jays. They’re legit. He gets the Tigers next. They’re not nearly as legit. The Jays are too legit to quit Eduardo.
Gerrit Cole @ TB (L) – 5.1 IP, 7 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 23 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 105 pitches.
Oh my. Cole. This is bad. You’re not allowed to have a start like this, I don’t care if it came with one whiff off a Gallows Pole. Sure, the ten strikeouts are nice to salvage ‘n’ whatnot, but seven earned runs? Seven?! I’m reacting the same way as if someone told me they hated that movie with Morgan Freeman and Brad Pitt. Pure incredulous exasperation. Obviously you don’t need me to tell you to ignore it and move on, but I’m here to share the pain. I feel y’all. This stung.
Game of the Day
Sonny Gray vs Carlos Carrasco – Please recover Gray + It’s Carrasco! We’ve waited all season for him to return. It’s a Still ILL but I’m excited to watch.
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
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Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
In case you missed it. Casey Mize’s pitch count was going to be limited only for a number of games before getting eased back to normal workload. Part of Tigers’ plan that allows young pitchers to have workload in check while pitching to September. It was reveled in an interview with the manager.