Paddack in the Saddle Again

Nick Pollack reviews every starting pitcher performance from Tuesday.

Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch weekday mornings from 9 am-11 am ET.

Chris Paddack vs DET (ND) – 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.

In his last start, Chris Paddack gave me a raised eyebrow for his ability to locate four-seamers effectively at the top edge of the zone. If he can do that again, he’ll have my attention, I thought. Well, he went 5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches today against the Tigers and, you guessed it, he did it again.

What does it mean? It means that when he has a solid secondary pitch to pair his high heaters, Paddack can become a solid pitcher on a given night. And what do you know, Paddack went 40% CSW on his changeup and 39% CSW on his curveball, crafting a beautiful night at the park. It’s still a little too soon to call Paddack a must-add because of this, but you can bet your bottom dollar if he does well against the Rays everyone will be adding him for his start against Oakland later that week.

So do what you’d like — he’s slated for a Sunday start and you may need that outing for your H2H league regardless. If you don’t want to chance this, I don’t blame you as two starts don’t define a pitcher. But three or four? Well then we may be seeing the sheriff riding back into town.

 

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

 

Patrick Sandoval vs CLE (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 38% CSW, 90 pitches.

The Irish Panda strikes again. His changeup went 9/31 whiffs because duh and the Guardians were unable to punish the fastballs he pounded all over the zone. All that said, there was a concerning graphic from the Angels broadcast about Sandoval’s velocity falling from 95+ in the first frame to 90/91 mph by the seventh, represented here. I’d say that’s a product of early-season fatigue, though I can understand the concern that an injury struck, brining Sandoval down to sub 90 mph levels by the end. I have to imagine he would have been pulled & would have worse command than he did if that were the case. I’d ignore it for now and celebrate this glorious outing.

Chris Bassitt @ STL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 94 pitches.

Slider usage is still up, and his sinker is still a called strike pro. The Cardinals couldn’t slappa the Bassitt and we’re all so happy for it. But not the pun. I know. I know. One or two more from Bassitt and that AGA label is coming for ya.

Kevin Gausman vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 19 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 88 pitches.

Aces gonna ace with a Gallows Pole. Gausman has yet to allow a single walk this year while his splitter earned 14/31 whiffs. It’s incredible and Gausman deserves more love.

Daniel Lynch @ CWS (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 98 pitches.

Well hellllllo there Daniel! His four-seamer command was excellent up in the zone while the slider went 74% strikes and six whiffs. It’s not as overwhelming of a breaker outing as I’m ideally seeing from Lynch, but his command was strong enough to let a little luck go his way for a change. He gets the Yankees next and I don’t think I’d take the chance there, but the time for us to begin heavily scrutinizing Lynch has begun.

Logan Gilbert @ TB (W) – 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 104 pitches.

HeCan’tKeepGettingAwayWithIt.GIF. Gilbert is getting his outs without sliders or changeups developing in the way we’ve been hoping they would, boasting a 0.40 ERA through his first 22.1 frames of the year. I’m sad to see those secondaries fail to come through and if they continue to stay mediocre, I don’t think the heater can keep this up.

Dallas Keuchel vs KC (L) – 4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 5 BBs, 2 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 88 pitches.

Five walks in four frames. Keuchel, I’m happy you survived, but I miss the ole days.

Matt Wisler vs SEA (ND) – 2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 27 pitches.

Sure sure sure, the real story is Josh Fleming as he went 2.0 IP with 0 ER (7 UNEARNED), 4 Hits, 1 BBs, and 2 Ks across 60 pitches. And once again, ZERO whiffs on 28 sinkers. Luck didn’t go Fleming’s way (obviously) but y’all know this ain’t the secret hidden gem on the wire. That was Miles Mikolas and Zach Eflin.

Max Fried vs CHC (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. Fried deserves that as starts like these feel natural with his 94/95 mph velocity, 39% CSW curveball, and a slider…that went 0/18 whiffs. Fine, there are improvements to be had, but even so he dominated through six full frames. We’ll so take this.

Carlos Rodón vs OAK (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 104 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He’s at 96 mph on his heater now, with his slider looking as filthy as ever. It’s just not fair.

Jake Odorizzi @ TEX (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 78 pitches.

Well how about that, the Astros actually let Odorizzi go six frames! All it took was for him to get it done in fewer than 80 pitches and just two baserunners. The command was solid and helped earn those outs, but it doesn’t mean I think Odorizzi is back to his old ways. AU CONTRAIRE! I think it’s just a good evening, sipping on whiskey with old friends, you know? Those nights are the important ones in life, otherwise we get a little too stuck in our ways. Always feeling the pressure to charge forward without taking time to sit back and reflect. Enjoy the whiskey, Jake.

Zach Eflin vs COL (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 91 pitches.

I’m telling y’all, Rockie Road is still a thing as Eflin came through as today’s streaming pick of the day. He didn’t have the best stuff and his curveball was all kinds of mediocre, but it’s Colorado on the road. It just works.

Sandy Alcantara @ WSH (W) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 96 pitches.

Aces gonna ace. He got a bit of luck here to boast a 1.50 WHIP yet allow just one earned run as the slider has failed to dominate like its second half self. It’ll get there, just like his velocity ticking back up to 98.3 mph in this one, even hitting 100.3 mph this game. He’s too good to fail.

Jordan Hicks vs NYM (L) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 3 Whiffs, 21% CSW, 42 pitches.

Hicks took a liner to the wrist, pitched a touch more, then got pulled from the game. Bummer. He’s still chucking 98 mph heat as a starter, but the overall command and approach just doesn’t scream legit to me. I’d keep waiting for more.

Tony Gonsolin @ ARI (ND) – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 75 pitches.

Huh. After I completed my stupid-long 47-minute video breaking down every pitch from Walker Buehler’s CGSHO, I realized my biggest takeaway was the inadequacy of the Arizona offense. Huh, I wonder if it really matters that Gonsolin’s slider isn’t anything close to its 2020 self after all. Welp, it looks like my positioning of Gonsolin in the “Questionable Start” tier was ultimately correct as he survived just four frames with 2 ER to his name. The slider still isn’t the pitch we want it to be, but OH MY this curveball has appeared for 9/19 called strikes and I’m here for it. That’s fun, but with his fastball at 92/93 and no strong slider, it still isn’t enough. I’d be very careful against the Giants next week.

Nick Pivetta @ TOR (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 98 pitches.

Pivetta is innately a risky pitcher and heading to Toronto just makes it all so much worse. I really don’t think rostering him is a good idea.

Marcus Stroman @ ATL (L) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 86 pitches.

Phew. The slider and cutter were better here, giving his sinker proper support, unlike his earlier starts. Now he gets the lowly Brewers and everything should be A-Okay. It doesn’t mean he’s totally escaped from his damaged floor, but at least you’re feeling better about slotting him in your lineups.

Joe Musgrove @ CIN (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 85 pitches.

Aces gonna ace, even with a worse WHIP and just four strikeouts. 32% fastball usage?! What has gotten into you, Musgrove? It’s not like your curveball was bad — 40% CSW! 8/10 strikes! — you could have thrown a few more of those instead of some meh fastballs. BUT I DIGRESS. Musgrove is a cozy blanket among some of the shaky Top 30 starters you could have drafted instead.

Eduardo Rodriguez @ MIN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 102 pitches.

Another PQS for Rodriguez, but that’s a solid 1.00 WHIP and six strikeouts. The low whiffs are startling to say the least and I’d expect the changeup to perform a bit better than just 4/28 CSW moving forward. He’s not the sexiest of starters, but he’ll help more than hurt and that’s what you drafted Erod for.

Zach Davies vs LAD (ND) – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.

It was the Dodgers and it was Davies. That’s a double negative. Doesn’t that usually make a positive? No, I’m positive it’s negative. Just doubly so. The math checks out.

Luis Severino vs BAL (W) – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 77 pitches.

Here’s your Careful, Icarus as he tossed five no-hit frames before a three-run shot in the sixth, then coming in for just one batter in the seventh, who smacked a double and ultimately scored. It ain’t fair. Well maybe a little fair: Severino was down over two ticks on the heater to just 94.9 mph after averaging 97+ prior, while he still hasn’t quite figured out how to replicate his breakers to match the start against the Jays. It’s still a very clear “start” each time, but I wish we saw some more consistency from Severino instead of looking a bit like Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as a premium Cherry Bomb.

Triston McKenzie @ LAA (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 90 pitches.

I think Triston pitched decently well here. Fastballs were a bit too hittable at times and they didn’t earn enough whiffs (just 4/33, blegh) but he still showed these moments of strength, flashing what he could be if he could harness his arsenal. It makes you feel good about the Athletics coming up next.

Josiah Gray vs MIA (L) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 10 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 98 pitches.

It’s not every day you see horrific ratios and a trio of walks come with a King Cole but here we are. The story of Josiah is outlined in this very start — volatile ERA & WHIP, high strikeouts. It makes for a Cherry Bomb and at least you’re aware of what you’re dealing with. On the plus side in this one, Gray’s slider was better than any start we’ve seen this year at 42% CSW. Let’s hope that sticks.

Taylor Hearn vs HOU (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 84 pitches.

I mean, it was the Astros. That said, I don’t expect a Swift recovery from Taylor as he gets Atlanta next.

Mitch Keller vs MIL (ND) – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 75 pitches.

But the Brewers are a terrible offense! Keller laughed at your logic as you underestimated his lack of ability. I took no pleasure in writing that. You really need to drop Mitch.

Brandon Woodruff @ PIT (ND) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.

Aces gonna…oh no. I THOUGHT WE WERE OVER THIS. His changeup was spectacular at 9/21 whiffs but he labored with heaters and a tough fifth frame knocked him out of the game. Ugggggh. You just have to keep starting him and hope it improves. When the fastball dominates — as it should — you’ll know everything is fine again. This feels like a buy-low in my book but I’m sure to get a comment about how “Woodruff doesn’t look great with his heaters and thus isn’t a buy-low”. But that’s what makes him a buy-low: If he looked good with heaters, he’d be accurately priced. Up to you if you believe he’ll recover, I think it’s destined to happen.

Germán Márquez @ PHI (L) – 3.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 80 pitches.

When do you start Márquez? Seriously, I have no idea.

Daulton Jefferies @ SF (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 72 pitches.

He’s a Toby at best, which means you don’t start him against the Giants. It’s that simple.

Jordan Lyles @ NYY (L) – 4.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 93 pitches.

Womp womp. I don’t think any of you actually chased Jordan here, but I still feel like I need to deliver those Price Is Right trumpets. They’re perfect.

Reiver Sanmartin vs SD (L) – 3.0 IP, 9 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 62 pitches.

Oh you thought this was a stream? There’s a huge difference between a stream and Reiver. Get your hydrology straight.

Game of the Day 

Julio Urías vs. Zac Gallen – I’d love to see Julio sit 94+ and y’all know I’m a Gallen Gal.

But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.

Have Questions? – Join my morning Twitch livestream! I answer all questions there for free: 9:00 am – 11:00 am ET Monday through Friday.

Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former college pitcher, travel coach, pitching coach, and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

2 responses to “Paddack in the Saddle Again”

  1. Hoff says:

    Would like to point out, Gray’s last batter was a decently hit ball that bounced off Escobar’s glove and was ruled a hit. If he catches that, like an above average SS should, you have a QS and we’re much more encouraged about that line. Very volatile like you said, but he’s definitely making progress.

  2. Chief says:

    The Irish Pickle after brining down last night.

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