First, let’s get some basics out of the way in terms of how to interpret these rankings. None of this stuff should come as any major surprise, but it never hurts to provide background:
- I’ve gotten more level-headed over the years regarding weighing stolen bases, but I still think they’re precious given how rare they’re becoming. Every steal is important, so don’t take those “chip-in” steals for granted. Finding steals at the end of the season can be a dogfight.
- If I did want to get some insight on whether what I’m seeing is new or if it’s just normal fluctuation, I’d use my favorite tool—the rolling chart. While we don’t have much for rolling data in 2022, you can see where they currently are on a rolling chart and see how it compares to their career trajectory.
- No stat is an island and they should all be taken in proper context. For ranking purposes, the primary starting points I use are plate discipline, wRC+, quality of contact metrics (also known as Statcast batted ball data), and lineup context. I also use various projections (some free, some I buy) and dollar value generators. Unlike Nick, I’ll also look at other rankings as I prepare my own to feel how my colleagues value certain players, positions, or stats. I recommend trying as many of these things as you can until you find what you like.
- Positional eligibility, and specifically multi-eligibility, is really neat but also isn’t a huge factor in many 10- and 12-team leagues anymore due to the prevalence of multi-eligible players. It’s of more value in deeper contests like the NFBC, or in leagues with limited roster moves (draft and hold leagues, transaction limits/costs, extremely short benches, etc.), but even then the value is fairly situational and context-dependent.
- On a similar note, I don’t really penalize players for only qualifying in the utility slot. At most, it is a mild inconvenience if a DH-only player is available at a great value and you already have filled your utility spots.
- Anyone talented enough to make it to the big leagues can be brilliant or putrid for 50 at-bats regardless of true talent. Heck, it could even last a month with no change in potential or skill. It also could be wildly meaningful. We can’t and don’t know which of these will be true until it’s over, though track record, scouting, and trends give us hints.
- If you’d like input on a player or have any feedback, your best bet is to reach out to me on Twitter (@ifthechufits) or in the comments!
Ranking Notes
Check out the Hacks & Jacks podcast featuring myself and Joe Gallina, which also happened to be a finalist for Best Baseball Podcast of 2021 by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)!
Just so you all are aware, instead of “The Next 30”, I decided to convert it to a “Taxi Squad” and leave little blurbs for each player. Enjoy!
TIER 1
- Ronald Acuña Jr. will be a 25/25 guy with a .280 average if he plays 120 games. He’s a 30/30 guy if he plays 135, and a 40/40 guy if he plays 150 (which can’t happen in 2022).
- José Ramírez is still finding ways to get better. It’s becoming silly, really. When you factor in durability and position, it’s becoming harder and harder not to put him at the top.
TIER 2
- Not only is Luis Robert on a 12-game hitting streak, but he’s also on a four-game extra-base streak and multiple-hit streak. A Luis Robert hot streak is a very fun time.
- Tim Anderson has not tried to steal a base in the majors or minors since his injury; however, he did return with back-to-back games with multiple hits. With those, he has achieved multiple hits in 22 of the 42 games he’s appeared in this season. Unbelievable.
- I just need to see Freddie Freeman clear the fences a few times to feel better. He does have four extra-base hits in his last three games, so hopefully that gets the home run juices flowing.
- Bo Bichette is slumping pretty hard at the moment after heating up near the end of May. I’m watching his power output closely—he had tons of doubles in May only to see them evaporate in June. Adjusting is part of the game, and he’ll stay in this tier if he shows he can start turning it around soon and stop the slump before it gets too much worse.
TIER 4
- No one is complaining about Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s .182 batting average this month thanks to the six dingers and four swipes, but the 35.1% strikeout rate will need to get better if the batting average is going to get above the Mendoza line.
- George Springer has injury concerns again. If he’s OK, he stays in this tier. If he’s not, well, crud.
