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Even with every MLB club in action, Tuesday night’s full slate once again revolves around Coors Field. Given all of the marquee sluggers performing at Colorado, this rundown eschews the top aces to save expenses. The drop in quality, however, is not debilitating given a pair of affordable hurlers on the hill.
Top SP: Brad Peacock, HOU ($8,800) vs. MIL
Yes, I indeed just labeled Peacock the “Top SP” on a slate featuring Chris Paddack, Luis Castillo, Patrick Corbin, James Paxton and Trevor Bauer. It’s all relative to price. Saving more than $1,000 by forgoing one of those aces allows the flexibility to pay for a stud hitter at Coors. Peacock has quietly posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP supported by a 17.8 K-BB% and 3.19 FIP. The matchup has mitigated his cost, but facing the Brewers at home isn’t as bad it may seem. They possess a slightly below-average 98 wRC+ away from Miller Park and have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties (25.1%) this season. There’s plenty of risk to testing a starter against Christian Yelich and Co., especially when giving them a DH, but Peacock remains a high-upside play who has ceded five runs in his last six starts.
Value SP: Martin Perez, MIN ($6,700) vs. SEA
Perez has come crashing back to earth, allowing 13 runs over his last three starts while managing just seven strikeouts to eight walks. The Mariners have also delivered a 112 wRC+ against lefties, so one of 2019’s finest reclamation projects suddenly costs just $6,700. At that rate, let’s take the gamble. He gets to pitch at Target Field—where he holds a 2.51 ERA—for the first time since May 12. Despite Seattle’s success off southpaws, the club also strikes out at a heavy clip (26.4%) and is missing a top righty bat in Mitch Haniger. Perez should also continue to see plenty of run support with the Twins teeing off against Mike Leake.
There’s only room for one star playing at Colorado. The nod goes to Rizzo, who didn’t need Coors Field to slash .291/.400/.582 against righties before going yard Monday night. Lambert excelled (7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K) in his MLB debut against the Cubs, but Coors is an entirely different beast. While he costs $200 more than Kris Bryant and the same cost as Nolan Arenado against a lefty, there are more enticing options at the hot corner.
Desmond has not made the most of Coors Field, batting a paltry .246/.326/.430 in the hitter’s paradise since joining the Rockies last season. He’s not even guaranteed to start with Charlie Blackmon back from the IL. If getting the nod, that’s how you get Coors Field exposure with a platoon advantage for $4,100. Desmond, who went on a .319/.430/.587 tear in May, has staked lefties to a .632 slugging percentage this season. If he still sits, pivot to Raimel Tapia for $200 more.
Dozier finally looks healthy again. Following a slugging start to 2019, the second baseman has gone 10-for-27 with three doubles and three home runs in June. Although the overall numbers remain lethargic, he has decimated lefties to a .465 wOBA in 54 plate appearances. He gets a weak one in Banuelos, who has surrendered 11 home runs and a 7.36 ERA this season. Washington’s entire lefty-killing lineup is in play, but Dozier is especially a strong cash-game or tournament option with a subdued cost.
Lineup Stack: Astros vs. Brewers (RHP Freddy Peralta)
I’ve seen this song and dance too many times to trust Peralta. Although he’s coming off a gem against the Marlins, the highly erratic righty hasn’t tossed two straight quality starts since June 19 and 26 last season. He has permitted a .364 wOBA to lefties over 122.1 carer big league innings. Michael Brantley, meanwhile, has returned to peak form. The 32-year-old outfielder boasts a .317/.374/.512 slash line entering Tuesday night, and that type of All-Star typically goes for more than $4,100 against an opponent with such destitute downside. Stacking the injury-ridden Astros wasn’t the initial plan, but the recently promoted Yordan Alvarez is available for $3,800. Alex Bregman’s $4,500 is also awfully reasonable for a superstar sporting a .390 wOBA with 18 homers.
Honorable Mentions: Nationals at White Sox Banuelos; Twins vs. Mariners (Leake); Rockies at Cubs (Quintana).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is akgould4) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).