Pitcher List is proud to partner with DraftKings for the 2019 season. We’ll be featuring our top picks for every daily slate through the season and feature articles dedicated to the GPP.
Top Play SP: Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,200) vs. SEA
If you’re not too busy watching football, today’s baseball slate features 11 games. At the top of the board today is the impending free agent Gerrit Cole (32.4% K-BB%, 2.76 SIERA) who gets about as great of a matchup as you could possibly ask for in the Mariners. They have been a mess offensively since the beginning of July amassing a .308 team wOBA and 94 wRC+ to go along with an awful 26% K rate. The Astros, as you’d expect, are positively massive -430 favorites. The sky’s the limit for Cole today.
Honorable mention: Scherzer, WAS ($10,900) at ATL (Mike Soroka); Clevinger ($11,700) at MIN.
Value SP: Mike Montgomery, KC ($4,400) at MIA
Here’s you punt du jour this afternoon as the Royals will finish up their three-game set at Miami with Mike Montgomery taking the hill. He hasn’t been great this year (10.7% K-BB%, 4.61 SIERA) but the rock-bottom price tag and a matchup against the lowly Marlins (.291 team wOBA, 80 wRC+ vs LHP this year) makes up for it. Today’s game in Miami is set at a pick ’em with both teams implied run totals sitting at just over four runs.
One other thing worth mentioning today, if you’re thinking about Tyler Glasnow ($4,900) keep in mind that he’s set to throw around two or perhaps three innings at most which pretty much takes him off the board.
Honorable mention: Adrian Houser, MIL ($5,500) vs. CHC (Jon Lester); Dylan Cease (GPP), CWS ($7,400) vs LAA (Jaime Barria).
Top Play: OF Michael Brantley, HOU ($4,400) vs. SEA
Felix Hernandez will get the start today for the Mariners at Houston. Father Time has rendered the one-time King a shell of his former glory (12.9% K-BB%, 4.69 SIERA) and chances are a trip to Houston won’t do his ERA any favors. Lefties have touched him up for a .380 wOBA this year and .353 last year. Michael Brantley, who has assaulted RHP this year to the tune of a .331 batting average, .391 wOBA, and 151 wRC+, gives us some affordable exposure to the Astros and their slate-leading implied total of six plus runs.
Honorable mentions: OF Michael Conforto ($4, 800) vs PHI (Vince Velasquez); 1B Carlos Santana ($4,500) at MIN (TBD); OF Shin-soo Choo ($4,600) at BAL (Asher Wojciechowski); 1B Shohei Ohtani ($4,400) at CWS (Dylan Cease).
Top Play: 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4,800) at MIL
Adrian Houser (16% K-BB%, 4.01 SIERA) looks like a solid potential value play on today’s slate but if you’re fading him in lieu of other options, Anthony Rizzo makes sense as a prime buy-low target. Houser, similar to DeSclafani, has shown some very sharp splits with a .364 wOBA allowed to LHB as opposed to just .266 against RHB. Rizzo meanwhile has managed a .404 wOBA and 150 wRC+ vs RHB this year.
Honorable mentions: OF Yordan Alvarez ($5,400) vs. SEA (Felix Hernandez); OF Willie Calhoun ($5,000) at BAL (Asher Wojciechowski); 3B/SS Alex Bregman ($5,400) vs SEA (Felix Hernandez); OF Tommy Pham ($4,900) vs. TOR (Jacob Waguespack); OF (GPP) Kyle Schwarber ($5,300) at MIL (Adrian Houser).
Value: OF Josh Rojas, ARI ($3,200) at CIN
While Anthony DeSclafani has been very solid overall (17.2% K-BB%, 4.29 SIERA) he has some of the sharpest splits you’ll ever see allowing a .361 wOBA (21.9% K rate) to lefties while against the righties that number drops all the way down .261 (27% K rate). A season-ending injury to David Peralta has afforded the rookie Josh Rojas, who was acquired by the D-Backs in the Zack Greinke trade, more regular playing time. The results haven’t been there in his short stint so far but Rojas had excellent numbers for AAA Round Rock this year including a .410 wOBA, .237 ISO, and 137 wRC+.
Honorable mentions: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr./b> ($3,300) at TB (Glasnow); 2B Jason Kipnis ($3,800) at MIN (TBD); 2B/OF Josh VanMeter ($3,800) vs ARI (Mike Leake); 2B Robinson Cano ($3,900) vs. PHI (Velasquez); OF Lorenzo Cain ($3,700) vs.CHC (Lester); OF Eloy Jimenez ($4,100) vs LAA (Jaime Barria).
Top Stack: HOU vs SEA (Felix Hernandez)
As mentioned earlier, the Astros find themselves as the top stack of the day by virtue of their matchup against Felix Hernandez whose once ace skills have long since faded. Both lefties (.380 wOBA allowed) and righties (.369 wOBA allowed) have hit Hernandez hard this year. His average exit velocity of 91.3 MPH is also in the bottom 1% of the league. In particular, his sinker, which he throws roughly 30% of the time, has relinquished an xwOBA of .442. This certainly qualifies as a likely eruption spot as he is set to face a lineup loaded with batters who have hit RHP very well this year starting at the top with George Springer (.401 wOBA, 158 wRC+), Jose Altuve (.342 wOBA, 118 wRC+), Yordan Alvarez (.433 wOBA, 179 wRC+), Alex Bregman (.400 wOBA, 157 wRC+) in addition to the aforementioned Brantley. Also keep an eye out for Abraham Toro he showed fantastic numbers in AA (.402 wOBA, 153 wRC+) before his call up and at $3,000 he could be very useful value piece to help round out the stack.
Honorable mentions: CLE at MIN (TBD); NYM vs PHI (Velasquez); TEX at BAL (Wojciechowski).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.