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Top Play SP: Max Scherzer, WAS ($11,000) vs. PHI
There’s not much left to say about Gerrit Cole (33.2% K-BB, 35% CSW, 2.70 SIERA) at this point, especially after notching his 300th K of the year his last time out. He’s just been otherworldly good this year. Theres no real reason to expect him to not continue to dominate against a less than stellar Mariners lineup tonight. His $13,000 price tag, though, is a little prohibitive, so we’ll take the discount with Max Scherzer (30% K-BB, 34.3% CSW, 2.96 SIERA). He was able to get his pitch count all the way up to 109 while also notching 11 K’s in his last start, which seems like a good indication that he’s been able to further distance himself from the injury that sidelined him back in August. He gets a Phillies lineup that’s been a bit of a disappointment this year with just a .316 team wOBA (18th) and 92 wRC+. The Nationals are solid home favorites at -160.
Honorable mentions: Cole, HOU ($13,000) at SEA (Dunn/Milone); Clevinger, CLE ($11,800) at CWS (Santiago).
Value SP: Madison Bumgarner, SF ($8,200) vs COL
From a DFS standpoint Madison Bumgarner (18.8% K-BB, 28.4% CSW, 4.18 SIERA) has been underwhelming really since his August 30th start against the Padres. Tonight, though presents a really solid buy back opportunity as this is the lowest we’ve seen him priced for a home start in quite some time. The matchup against the road Rockies is a good one too as their away team wOBA of .288 is actually worse than the Tigers (.290) and just ahead of the Marlins who, of course, have the league’s worst mark at .283.
Honorable mentions: Bailey ($8,400) at LAA (Dillon Peters).
Top Play: 3B Matt Chapman, OAK ($4,200) at LAA
Matt Chapman (.351 wOBA, 123 wRC+ in 2019) and the A’s will be on the road taking on the southpaw Dillon Peters (9.4% K-BB, 26.5% CSW, 5.11 SIERA) in Anaheim. Peters hasn’t been sharp this year with a 1.51 WHIP while allowing a 39.2% hard-hit rate and .350 xwOBA. He’s also surrendered a .387 wOBA to opposing RHB. Meanwhile, Chapman has amassed a .358 wOBA and 128 wRC+ vs LHP the past two seasons combined. This is a nice price for the two hole-hitting Chapman, whose team holds a robust implied team total just short of six runs.
Honorable mentions: 3B Josh Donaldson ($4,200) at KC (Danny Duffy); OF Yasiel Puig ($4,400) at CWS (Hector Santiago); 1B Carlos Santana ($4,900) at CWS (Hector Santiago); 1B Paul Goldschmidt ($4,500) at ARI (Mike Leake).
Top Play: SS Francisco Lindor, CLE ($5,000) at CWS
The Indians have one of the best implied totals of the evening, hovering just under six runs. It’s not surprising in the least, considering their opponent this evening will be one Hector Santiago (7.4% K-BB, 29.3% CSW, 5.37 SIERA). He’s been a disaster in 28.2 IP with a 1.81 WHIP while also allowing a .358 xwOBA and 11.4% barrel rate. So we should be giving a long look at the Indians offense tonight. Their star shortstop Francisco Lindor holds a .383 wOBA, 213 ISO and 138 wRC+ against enemy LHP the past two seasons.
Value: 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($3,800) vs. BAL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr (.336 wOBA, 109 wRC+) has been a disappointment relative to the huge expectations heading into his rookie season. Still, we know he’s a phenomenal talent and at sub $4,000 price tag, I’d be more than willing to play him against Dylan Bundy (14.8% K-BB, 29.7% CSW, 4.54 SIERA) who, in addition to allowing a .338 wOBA to RHB this year, has surrendered the third-most home runs of the slate at 28.
Honorable mentions: OF Austin Riley ($3,900) at KC (Duffy); 1B Justin Smoak ($3,600) vs. BAL (Bundy); C Yadier Molina ($3,700) at ARI (Leake); OF Khris Davis ($3,600) at LA (Dillon Peters); OF Austin Hays ($3,800) at TOR (Kay); OF Dexter Fowler ($3,900) at ARI (Mike Leake).
Top Stack: OAK at LAA (Peters)
The rookie Justin Dunn will open for the Mariners and he’ll be followed by the lefty Tommy Milone (16.4% K-BB, 30.1 CSW, 4.21 SIERA). So it’s a possible eruption spot for the Astros and their talented lineup. Though stacking the likes of George Springer, Alex Bregman, and Yordan Alvarez will cost you quite a bit. And there’s opportunity cost too on tonight’s slate which features some excellent options to pay up for at SP.
The Red Sox are down at Globe Life Park in Arlington, where they could do a lot of damage against the righty Ariel Jurado (8.4% K-BB, 26% CSW, 5.10 SIERA), who has allowed an xwOBA of .360 this year. The Red Sox currently have the best implied team total of the night at just under six and a half runs. The Indians should also stack up some runs against the lefty Hector Santiago.
But for tonight’s top stack we’ll go with the A’s in their matchup against LHP Dillon Peters (9.4% K-BB, 26.5% CSW, 5.11 SIERA). He’s shown a well below-average K rate of just 17.4% and as mentioned earlier, he’s struggled against RHB, surrendering a .387 wOBA to them this year. That probably won’t bode well against an A’s lineup that features quite a few capable RHB. Below you’ll see their projected lineup with their wOBA and wRC+ from this year.
|Marcus Semien SS||$5,200||.372||137|
|Ramon Laureano OF||$4,800||.354||125|
|Matt Chapman 3B||$4,200||.351||123|
|Matt Olson 1B||$4,800||.368||135|
|Mark Canha OF||$4,700||.389||149|
|Seth Brown OF||$3,700||.386||146|
|Khris Davis OF||$3,600||.282||77|
|Sean Murphy C||$4,000||.443||185|
|Jurickson Profar 2B||$3,700||.301||89|
Marcus Semien is the only bat here that’ll cost you over $5,000. He’s been fantastic as a table-setter for the A’s this year, bumping his walk rate up to a career-best 11.3%. Matt Olson is a nice contrarian option for tournaments, considering most will probably look to avoid the left-on-left matchup, but there’s great power upside with his team-leading .280 ISO. As mentioned earlier, Chapman (.358 wOBA, 128 wRC+vs LHP 2018-19) is a very nice stand alone play at just $4,200. It’s been an awful season for Khris Davis but at $3,600 he’s worth considering as a buy-low option in a nice matchup while Sean Murphy provides a nice upside option at the always thin catcher position.
Honorable mentions: HOU at SEA (Dunn/Milone); BOS at TEX (Volquez/Jurado); CLE at CWS (Santiago).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.