DraftKings Plays of the Day—9/22
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Top Play SP: Justin Verlander, HOU ($12,800) vs. LAA
As is the case on pretty much any day he’s starting, Justin Verlander (30.3% K-BB%, 34%CSW, 2.97 SIERA) is a peerless force on the mound. Second on the board for K-BB% is Matthew Boyd at 24.4% followed by Yu Darvish at 23% . You don’t need me to tell you that Verlander is the clear top play. Today’s matchup for him couldn’t get much better as he’ll be opposed by a completely listless Angels lineup sans Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Justin Upton that will look to simply meander its way through the final days of the season. The money line for this game hasn’t been released yet but it’s probably safe to assume the Astros should be the biggest favorite on the board by a country mile.
Honorable mentions: Darvish, CHC ($11,600) vs. STL (Miles Mikolas);
Value SP: Austin Voth, WAS ($8,000) at MIA
Austin Voth has been a nice surprise for the Nationals in his 32 inning stint this year. He’s shown a very good 26.9% K rate (30.9% CSW) to go along with a sharp 1.16 WHIP and 4.03 SIERA. He was also very good across 61 innings in AAA this year with a 25.4% K rate along with a trim 5.6% BB rate. And, of course, the proverbial cherry on top here is a matchup against the Marlins and their league worst .288 team wOBA. The Nationals are by far the biggest road favorites on the board at -200 making him one of the safer looking pitching values on the slate.
He’s risky for sure. All you have to do is look at his last game log against a not so tough Giants lineup to see the downside with Nathan Eovaldi (12.6% K-BB%, 29.3% CSW, 4.71 SIERA). But his $5,100 price tag provides at least an interesting buy low opportunity particularly in tournaments if you’re looking to save some salary.
Following two duds Reynaldo Lopez (12.4% K-BB%, 27.5% CSW, 4.94) gets a great bounceback opportunity against the Tigers and their .290 team wOBA. We’ve seen big performances from him case in point being his complete game against the Indians back on the 5th of September so he’s definitely a volatile option perfectly suited for tournaments.
Honorable mentions: Eovaldi (GPP) BOS ($5,100) at TB (Ryan Yarbrough); Lopez CWS ($7,400) at DET (Matthew Boyd).
Top Play: 2B/3B Mike Moustakas, MIL ($4,900) vs. PIT
Trevor Williams (10.5% K-BB%, 25.7% CSW, 5.10 SIERA) has regressed sharply following last year’s 3.11 ERA. Lefties in particular have roughed him up to the tune of a .393 wOBA and .213 ISO allowed. Mike Moustakas has continued to hit RHP really well this year with a .350 wOBA and 114 wRC+. He should be right in the thick of things for the Brewers, who have a very appealing implied team total just shy of six runs.
Top Play: SS Jorge Polanco, MIN ($4,900) vs. KC
The Twins have one of the biggest implied totals of the afternoon at just under six and a half runs. They’ll face KC Righty Jorge Lopez (12.8% K-BB, 27.2% CSW, 4.55 SIERA) who has surrendered a .398 wOBA and .247 ISO to opposing LHB. Jorge Polanco has enjoyed an excellent season hitting just under .300 to go along with an .853 OPS. He’s been fantastic against RHP ammassing a .377 wOBA and 137 wRC+ against them this year. Hitting in the 2-hole in front of Nelson Cruz, Polanco looks like a nice way to get some exposure to the Twins offense today.
J.D. Martinez has been dealing with a groin issue and with the Red Sox playoff hopes dead and buried they may opt to sit him, but if he’s in there today this looks like a really tempting buy low opportunity. Martinez has amassed a pretty silly .473 wOBA and 199 wRC+ against LHP the past two seasons combined. He’ll face the lefty Ryan Yarbrough today.
Honorable mentions: 3B/SS Alex Bregman ($5,400) vs. LAA (Jose Rodriguez/Jose Suarez); OF Nelson Cruz ($5,400) vs. KC (Jorge Lopez); OF J.D. Martinez ($4,300) at TB (Yarbrough).
Value: OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4,000) vs. TOR
The Yankees have been easing Giancarlo Stanton (.359 wOBA, 128 wRC+ 2018-19) back from injuries that have cost him almost the entire year. So it’s not a given that he’ll be in there (he played last night) but if he is he has to be one of if not the most appealing value play of the slate at just $4,000. The Yankees are at home taking on the rookie Trent Thornton (12.7% K-BB, 27.5% CSW, 4.85 SIERA) so this looks like a fine opportunity to target Stanton on the cheap.
Honorable mentions: 1B/3B Renato Nunez ($3,900) vs. SEA (Gonzales); 1B Nate Lowe ($3,600) vs. BOS (Eovaldi); 1B Eric Thames ($4,000) vs PIT (Williams); 2B/OF Luis Arraez ($4,000) vs. KC (Jorge Lopez).
Top Stack: NYY vs. TOR (Thornton)
The Angels will open with Jose Rodriguez who will then be followed by the lefty Jose Suarez who has been simply tortured by enemy RHB to the tune of a .444 wOBA and .288 ISO allowed. So this has all the makings of a possible eruption spot for the Astros and their righty leaning lineup.
Miles Mikolas (14.9% K-BB, 27.7% CSW, 4.37 SIERA) isn’t someone you’d typically want to pick on but the Cubs are priced really affordably so they are a potential stack to consider in tournaments particularly if the wind is blowing out at Wrigley. So be to sure to keep an eye out there if you’re building multiple lineups.
And as mentioned earlier with Polanco, the Twins offense is set up nicely as they are set to face a below-average RHP in Jorge Lopez. But for today’s top stack we’ll go the Bronx where the Yankees will be set to face Blue Jay rookie Trent Thornton (12.7% K-BB, 27.5% CSW, 4.85 SIERA) for the fourth time this year. Below, you’ll see the Yankees projected lineup with their wOBA and wRC+ from this year:
|DJ LeMahieu 2B/3B||$4,500||.375||136|
|Aaron Judge OF||$4,800||.381||140|
|Didi Gregorius SS||$4,200||.308||91|
|Giancarlo Stanton OF||$4,000||.355||122|
|Luke Voit 1B||$4,100||.366||129|
|Gio Urshela 3B||$4,000||.376||137|
|Brett Gardner OF||$4,300||.347||117|
|Cameron Maybin OF||$4,000||.362||127|
|Austin Romine C||$3,300||.310||92|
The Yankees are dealing with a couple of injuries, of course, in Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez, regardless this is a lineup that features plenty of fire power and the main appeal here is that they come at a nice discount relative to the Twins and Astros bats. Thornton has shown slightly weaker splits against LHB allowing a .339 wOBA and .216 ISO but he hasn’t exactly shut down RHB by any means allowing a .328 wOBA. Aaron Judge is always a tantalizing play when he’s going against a below average arm at a sub $5,000 price tag given his huge upside. While both Luke Voit and the aforementioned Stanton stand out the most as values at $4,100 and $4,000 respectively.
Honorable mentions: HOU vs. LAA (Rodriguez/Suarez); CHC vs STL (GPP) (Mikolas); MIN vs. KC (Lopez); MIL vs. PIT (Williams).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.