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Top SP: Yu Darvish, CHC ($10,000) vs. SF
There are plenty of high-end options from which to choose as your top starter on tonight’s main slate—it’s tough to go wrong with Clayton Kershaw ($12,000) against Detroit. But if you’re looking to save some payroll by avoiding the most expensive starting pitchers, consider Darvish at this price. Incredibly, Darvish has just one walk over his past 30 innings, along with 40 strikeouts and a 3.30 ERA. He should have another great outing against the Giants, who are a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching according to their .303 wOBA.
Honorable mentions: Justin Verlander ($12,000) vs. DET; Walker Buehler ($11,400) vs. TOR.
Value SP: Mike Montgomery, KC ($4,200) at BAL
It’s genuinely remarkable how cheap Montgomery is, and he feels like a must-play as the second-cheapest starter. Montgomery has evidently flown under the radar over the past month, as he’s got a 2.30 ERA with two quality starts in that span. He faces a very weak lineup in the Orioles, who have a poor .304 wOBA versus righties. The ballpark isn’t ideal, but don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. Snag Montgomery at this price.
Honorable mention: Adam Plutko ($6,400) at NYM; Marcus Stroman ($8,400) vs. CLE.
SS Jean Segura, PHI ($4,200) at BOS (RHP Rick Porcello)
Segura is a strong option in cash games as he’s batting .326 over the past month and provides a high floor with an extremely low 11.6% strikeout rate. The Phillies should put up some runs on Porcello, owner of an abysmal 5.49 ERA, so Segura should see the opportunity for plenty of counting stats. It would make sense to pair Segura with some teammates in a hitter-friendly park in Boston.
Honorable mentions: SS Marcus Semien ($4,300) vs. NYY (LHP J.A. Happ); 2B/3B Mike Moustakas ($4,300) at STL (RHP Adam Wainwright).
3B Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4,300) at NYM (Stroman)
It’s quite odd that Ramirez is so affordable considering he’s been absolutely elite over the past month, where he’s hitting .324 with a 1.094 OPS along with 10 homers and four steals. There appears to be no stopping him! Opposing starter Stroman is a regression candidate as he’s outperformed his 3.70 FIP and 4.49 SIERA, so don’t be scared off by the matchup.
Honorable mentions: SS Francisco Lindor ($4,500) at NYM (Stroman); 1B/OF Sam Travis ($4,100) vs. PHI (LHP Drew Smyly).
Value Batter: OF Aaron Judge, NYY ($3,800) at OAK (RHP Mike Fiers)
Judge is a buy-low to grab in GPP tournaments, as even though he’s in a cold streak, he’s still a potent threat to go deep on any night. Judge’s biggest liability is his strikeout rate, but he’s facing a pitcher in Mike Fiers who has a super low strikeout rate at 16.5%. Fiers also has a 4.76 FIP, so Judge an accumulate both runs and RBI batting second for the Yankees.
Honorable mentions: C Gary Sanchez ($4,100) at OAK (Fiers); 3B/SS David Fletcher ($4,100) vs. TEX (LHP Mike Minor).
Lineup Stack: Cubs vs Giants (RHP Dereck Rodriguez)
Rodriguez is somehow outperforming his peripherals despite a 4.79 ERA, which shows how bad his underlying stats really are. Rodriguez has just a 14.7% strikeout rate and a 5.41 SIERA, so look to Cubs hitters for a big night. There are some affordable contributors here in Nicholas Castellanos ($4,300), who has an 1.156 OPS over the past two weeks, and Jason Heyward ($4,000) out of the leadoff spot. Any Cubs bat outside of their catcher can be deployed in this stack.
Honorable mentions: Phillies at Red Sox (Porcello); Royals at Orioles (RHP Aaron Brooks).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is troyklauder) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.
Graphic by Justin Paradis (@FreshMeatComm on Twitter).