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Top Play SP: Charlie Morton, TBR ($11,900) at SEA
Back when Charlie Morton was with the Pirates, Baseball Tonight showed a comparison of his wind-up/release versus Roy Halladay’s. I bought him everywhere that year and was severely let down. Turns out, I was just about ten years too early. I jest, but Morton has been phenomenal this year. His 2.77 ERA is supported by his 2.88 pCRA and his 30.2% strikeout rate is the highest of his career. Morton faces the Mariners, who have gone into the tank. Their projected lineup has just a .319 wOBA against right-handed pitchers as well as a 27.8% strikeout rate.
Honorable mention: Mike Soroka, ATL ($10,400) at MIA.
Value SP: Aaron Sanchez, HOU ($6,900) at BAL
I rolled out Aaron Sanchez in his first start as an Astro and he did not disappoint, throwing six no-hit innings, while striking out six. A quick check at his pitch mix shows the changes the Astros made. Sanchez threw his curveball a season-high 30% and completely faded his sinker (a pitch he’s thrown as high as 65% in a game this year) in favor of his four-seam fastball. Let’s go back to the well against the Orioles. For the season, the Orioles rank 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching and their projected starting lineup has a 23.2% strikeout rate.
Honorable mention: Joe Musgrove, PIT ($6,600) at STL; Vince Velasquez, PHI ($7,400).
Top Play: OF J.D. Martinez, BOS ($4,900) vs. LAA
I’m a little conflicted on this one. I’m a fan of Andrew Heaney’s and I’m happy he’s coming back off the IL, but to ignore the numbers would be wrong. Heaney has allowed a 50.4% hard-hit rate this year, which has resulted in allowing an ISO of over .200 to both sides of the plate. J.D. Martinez has a 49.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching, to go along with his .481 ISO and .561 wOBA. Could we see the highest exit velocity ever recorded today?
Honorable mention: OF Max Kepler, MIN ($5,400) vs. CLE; OF Mookie Betts, BOS ($4,900) vs. LAA; OF Michael Brantley, HOU ($5,200) at BAL; OF Starling Marte, PIT ($5,000) at STL.
Top Play: 3B/SS Alex Bregman, HOU ($5,400) at BAL
The Astros would be the team I want to stack today, however, their top seven hitters in today’s projected lineup are all priced over $5,000. The more likely option is either a mini-stack or a couple of one-offs because I want to exploit this matchup with Aaron Brooks. My favorite Astro is Alex Bregman, who’s put up an incredible -5.9% BB-K% against right-handed pitchers. He’s also put up a .395 wOBA and .242 ISO against righties.
Honorable mention: SS Didi Gregorius, NYY ($4,200) at TOR; 2B Keston Hiura, MIL ($4,900) vs. TEX; SS/OF Niko Goodrum, DET ($4,200) vs. KCR.
Value: OF A.J. Pollock, LAD ($3,800) vs. ARI
We have a healthy A.J. Pollock sighting and that means it’s time to play him while he’s healthy. Pollock has been scorching of late, putting up a 154 wRC+ in 76 plate appearances since returning from the DL on July 12th. Pollock has been leading off against lefties and gets a prime matchup with Alex Young. On the surface, Young has been very good, putting up a 2.60 ERA in six starts, however, his 4.61 SIERA says regression is coming.
Honorable mention: 1B Miguel Cabrera, DET ($3,900) vs. KCR; 3B Matt Chapman, OAK ($4,100) at CHW; 2B/3B Luis Arraez, MIN ($4,000) vs. CLE.
Top Stack: Twins vs. Indians (RHP Adam Plutko)
As I mentioned in the Alex Bregman writeup, if price didn’t matter, I’d have the Astros as my top stack of the day. However, if you lock in the top five bats into your lineup, you’re left with just $4,520 per position and we haven’t picked any pitchers yet. Instead, we’ll focus on the Twins, who unfortunately lost Nelson Cruz to the IL. That doesn’t mean they lack upside in a matchup against Adam Plutko. To be fair, Plutko isn’t one of these guys that just allows an obscene amount of hard contact, he just doesn’t strike anyone out. When you only strike out 14.9% of the batters you face, you leave your fate to the BABIP gods, so I could see the Twins stringing along a lot of hits and putting up multiple innings of crooked numbers. My favorite bats from the Twins are Max Kepler ($5,400), Jorge Polanco ($4,700), Miguel Sano ($5,000), Eddie Rosario ($4,800), and Luis Arraez ($4,000), but if you need to save some cash, multipositional Marwin Gonzalez ($3,300) can help you out. And you can’t spell Marwin without “win”. Good luck today!
Honorable mention: Brewers vs. Rangers (RHP Pedro Payano); Tigers vs. Royals (LHP Mike Montgomery); Red Sox vs. Angels (LHP Andrew Heaney); Astros at Orioles (RHP Aaron Brooks).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is RMoss1983) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings, and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.