DraftKings Plays of the Day – 5/26
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Top Play SP: Justin Verlander, HOU ($11,200) vs BOS
Owner of a 0.73 WHIP and 2.24 ERA, Justin Verlander has been fantastic through the first quarter of 2019. His 26.3% K-BB% is second best of today’s 11-game slate. The Red Sox present a tougher matchup (.333 wOBA and 20.3% K rate), but regardless Verlander provides an excellent high floor/ceiling play suitable for all formats as his 27.5 FPPG leads the slate. His Astros are a very sizeable home favorite (-184) today.
Honorable Mention: Caleb Smith, MIA ($9,700) at WAS (Erick Fedde).
Value SP: Zack Wheeler, NYM ($8,600) vs DET
Zack Wheeler has shown excellent upside this year with three double-digit K performances in his last six. He’s at a nice discount this afternoon, considering he’s been priced as high as $10,000. The Tigers have been an incredibly anemic offense this year (.283 team wOBA). Their 26.2% team K rate is good for second worst to the Padres (27.1%). As of this writing, the Mets are a heavy (-180) favorite against Spencer Turnbull and the aforementioned Tigers.
Honorable Mention: Marcus Stroman, TOR ($7,400) vs SD.
1B: Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($5,300) vs CIN
With three home runs in his last four games, Anthony Rizzo has seemingly put that slow start to the season behind him. He’ll hold the platoon advantages against the righty Tanner Roark who despite a very solid 3.51 ERA has shown underlying skills including a 4.63 xFIP, 1.42 WHIP, and 3.8% HR/FB rate that indicate some possible looming regression. In addition, he’s allowed just a .310 wOBA despite a .344 xwOBA.
Honorable Mention: Christian Yelich ($5,800) vs PHI (Zach Eflin).
OF: David Dahl, COL ($4,600) vs BAL
The Hess truck will be winding its way to Coors this afternoon. He’s allowed a ghastly 17 home runs through just 45.1 innings. And there’s the O’s pen waiting in the wings. Yeah, safe to say the Rockies are in a great spot to stack up some crooked numbers in the run column today. David Dahl should be locked into the third spot in the lineup and will hold the platoon advantage here.
Honorable Mention: 2B/3B Mike Moustakas, ($4,800) vs PHI (Zach Eflin).
Value: OF Eloy Jimenez, CWS ($3,500) at MIN
Yes, Jake Odorizzi has been great this year, but I look at this as an opportunity to buy low on the talented rookie Eloy Jimenez. A couple of things to note for the aforementioned Odorizzi. He’s always been an extreme flyball pitcher and his current 6.4 % HR/FB rate seems like an outlier compared to his career mark of 10.4%. And he has been a reverse splits pitcher too, in that he’s been noticeably more susceptible to right-handed batter for his career, which should favor Jimenez here.
Honorable Mention: Corey Seager, ($3,900) at PIT (C. Archer).
Top Stack: COL vs BAL (RHP David Hess)
This one is about as obvious as you can get. The Orioles pitching staff has been an absolute unmitigated disaster. Let’s take a quick glance at today’s starter David Hess. So far this year (45.1 IP), he’s at the bottom 4% in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xwOBA, along with a well below average K rate of 19.1%. Now he gets to go to Coors. Yeah, not good. Load up on Rockies hitters this afternoon. The only real reason to fade the Rockies would be because of high ownership in tournaments as they will, of course, be very popular. As of this writing, the Rockies have an absolutely bonkers implied team total nearing 7.5 runs.
The Twins are a nice pivot off of the Rockies at Coors. They have been a fantastic offense through the first quarter-plus of the season as their .361 team wOBA leads the league. Dylan Covey and his unspeakably bad -9.7% K-BB % present a target ripe for the picking.
Honorable Mention: MIN vs CWS (Dylan Covey).
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sammybaugh) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games on which I offer advice. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any nonpublic information.