DFS Plays of the Day – June 30

Previewing Thursday's DFS slate.

The main slate on DraftKings starts early tonight at 6:05 PM EST with Aaron Nola and the Phillies hosting Atlanta. The Yankees and Astros also have a 6:10 PM EST start time. However, those two games are not included on FanDuel’s main slate, which starts at 7:05 EST.

 

Top Tier Pitching

 

Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.

 

Aaron Nola: ($10,000 DK): @ SD (L) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 10 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 98 pitches.

A 3.5% walk rate while allowing just a .264 wOBA to opposing hitters is a recipe for success. Nola, who leads the slate with a 25.7% K-BB%, gets an Atlanta lineup that has struck out 25.2% of the time (third-highest in baseball) that could also be without Ronald Acuña Jr. again (foot). He’s the top option tonight on DraftKings.

Logan Gilbert: ($9,500 DK, $ 10,400 FD): @ LAA (W) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 23% CSW, 100 pitches.

It’s a potential boom spot for Gilbert as he’ll host the A’s, owners of baseball’s worst team wOBA at .267. Skills-wise, the righty seems a little overpriced relative to the other top options and we should probably expect some regression moving forward considering his 3.98 xERA. Still, it’s the A’s, which helps justify the inflated price tag.

Joe Musgrove: ($9,700 DK, $ 11,100 FD): vs PHI (L) – 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 88 pitches.

Musgrove seems like the contrarian option tonight as a road underdog against the Dodgers, especially on FanDuel where he carries the highest salary.

Luis Severino: ($9,100 DK): vs HOU (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 95 pitches.

Fully healthy for the first time in three years, Severino has been phenomenal; he’s limited opposing hitters to a .272 xwOBA along with an xERA of 2.67, both in the top 9%. The Astros are a tough matchup (20% team K rate, tied third-lowest, and .323 wOBA, seventh-best) but it might be considerably easier if Yordan Alvarez is forced to miss the game. And it’s also factored into Severino’s salary which is the lowest it’s been since in just about a month.

Luis Garcia: ($8,800 DK): vs NYM (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 83 pitches.

Facing the Yankees, (.329 team wOBA, third-best) Garcia is a candidate to be overlooked which could make him an appealing target for tournaments similar to Musgrove.

 

Mid-tier/Value Pitching

 

 

 

 

Yusei Kikuchi: ($6,700 DK, $7,700 FD): @ MIL (L) – 2.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 69 pitches.

Kikuchi hasn’t completed five innings in over a month. But maybe he can take advantage of the Rays who have the fourth-worst team wOBA in baseball at .295. Then again, considering his 6.76 xERA and .410 xwOBA allowed, the better play might be Wander Franco; his salary on DK is at a low point at $4,600.

Kyle Hendricks: ($5,100 DK, $8,100 FD): @ STL (W) – 7.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 91 pitches.

Adrian Houser: ($5,400 DK, $8,400 FD): vs TOR (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 22% CSW, 102 pitches.

Well, they’re cheap. Hendricks is coming off one of his best starts of the year but history suggests we’d be better off simply ignoring it. He’ll face the Reds who have a .305 team wOBA, 2oth in baseball. Houser gets maybe an even friendlier matchup against the Pirates and their .287 team wOBA which is better than only two other teams; the Tigers and the A’s. Between the two, I’d roll the dice with Houser as the Pirates also have the highest team K rate in baseball at 25.5% and especially with winds blowing out at Wrigley Field.

Graham Ashcraft: ($8,000 DK, $9,000 FD):@ SF (W) – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 104 pitches.

To his credit, Ashcraft has pitched well and is coming off a fantastic start against the Giants. He’ll face the Cubs, who have been right around league average as a team with .313 wOBA (14th) and 99 wRC+. But, I’m siding with the bats in this game as Wrigley Field can be a hostile place for pitching in the summer when the wind points out which looks to be the case tonight. The hard-throwing rookie also has just a 15.8% K rate, so he might not be able to cover the damage of any stray fly balls.

Ian Anderson ($7,200 DK): vs LAD (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 88 pitches.

Anderson has flashed at times like his outing against the Cubs two turns ago but has also largely disappointed; inefficiency has been one of his weaknesses (11.2% BB rate). A product of his changeup, Anderson has shown reverse splits this year holding lefties to just a .290 wOBA. The hope for rostering him would be picking up a couple of easy punchouts in the bottom of the order with the likes of Bryson Stott, Didi Gregorius, Mickey Moniak, and recent call-up Darick Hall.

 

Bats and Stacks

 

  • TOR (N/A implied run total) vs TB: The Rays have yet to announce an official starter for tonight’s game; it might be Drew Rasmussen. He’s impressed this year with a 3.41 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but he’s also coming off the IL (hamstring) so who knows how effective he might be out of the gate. And few lineups possess the slate tilting upside of the Jays. On DraftKings, George Springer, Teoscar Hernández, and Bo Bichette are all under $5,000.
  • CIN (4.7 implied run total) at CHC Kyle Hendricks (RHP)  4.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP: The wind should be blowing out at Wrigley Field. Lefties have mauled Hendricks for a .397 wOBA this year, so Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas stand out the most. But you can certainly stack it with Tommy Pham, Brandon Drury, and Jonathan India at the top; Hendricks has gone over 100 pitches just once this year while Chicago relievers have combined to allow 48 home runs, the most among all teams.
  • SEA (4.6 implied run total) vs OAK Adrian Martinez (RHP) 0.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP: Martinez is getting called up for his second start. In 13 starts with the Aviators in Triple-A, he’s posted a 5.63 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. To be fair, that’s probably inflated given that it’s in the hitter-friendly PCL. Still, I think we can still look to the Mariners tonight facing an inexperienced pitcher followed by one of the worst pens in baseball. Jesse Winker is still an excellent buy under $4,000 on DraftKings.
  • MIL (4.8 implied run total) at PIT JT Brubaker (RHP) 4.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP: Coffee Cakes has been decent recently, but Rowdy Tellez will have the L/R advantage and stands out at $3,500 on DraftKings. Christian Yelich might also be overlooked which makes him a possible tournament target.

 

Honorable Mentions: CHC vs CIN (RHP Ashcraft)

 

Value Bats

 

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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