Monday’s main slate is a slight one that features only six games. Additionally, we some interleague action with Cleveland playing in Wrigley Field and the Reds heading into Minnesota. After an initial weather check, we might see some rain in the northeast again. Keep an eye on the ballgame in Baltimore, especially because it has the highest implied run total of the slate. I hope everyone had a fun and safe Father’s Day, and good luck today!
Implied Run Totals
|Tier One: Cash Game Arms|
|Yu Darvish||vs. LAD||$10200||$10000|
|Tyler Mahle||@ MIN||$9800||$8800|
|Julio Urías||@ SD||$9100||$9000|
|Frankie Montas||@ TEX||$9400||$9500|
The top arm on the slate, Yu Darvish, gets one of the tougher matchups today. In the previous two weeks, the Dodgers sport a sub-17% K-rate and 145 wRC+, which could be problematic. However, the Padres ace continues to throw 100 pitches per start. And, while the strikeouts have not been as prevalent as we are accustomed to, it’s tough to imagine he gets pulled before five innings. At home…away from Coors…I am betting the strikeouts return.
Today, Tyler Mahle will have to pitch against an extra batter since the game will be played in Target Field. While that is not ideal, his success will mainly depend on his ability to command his four-seamer and slider. That four-seamer is touting a 34% CWS and .186 BA against. Minnesota has plenty of thump in the lineup (.189 ISO) and enough swing-and-miss to make Mahle a solid option.
Another strong SP with a tougher matchup is Julio Urías. What makes it a little more challenging is the Padres strike out a little less vs. LHP. However, they also have a middle of the pack 99 wRC+ and .169 ISO in the last month. While this matchup will be fun for years to come, the day should belong to Urías. I would expect his stat line to look like five or six innings pitched with five to seven Ks and two earned runs.
Frankie Montas has been nothing short of spectacular recently. The splitter looks filthy (32% CSW), and batters are only hitting .200 against it. Furthermore, it is producing a 56% ground ball rate! The offspeed offering has helped the 96-mph fastball look electric, and the strikeouts are skyrocketing. Texas carries the fifth-highest K% in the MLB vs. RHP. It might be a massive evening for Montas!
|Tier Two: GPP Upside Plays|
|Aaron Civale||@ CHC||$8500||$8000|
|Kyle Gibson||vs. OAK||$6300||$7900|
|Adbert Alzolay||vs. CLE||$8900||$8500|
Aaron Civale draws the Chicago Cubs, who have been stone cold. The Cubs have a disappointing 74 wRC+ fueled by a 29% K-rate and .632 OPS in the previous two weeks. To Civale’s side, he continues to go deep into games and has not pitched less than five innings in a single outing. Hopefully, we get a start more like his eight-inning mastery of the Mariners on June 11th and less like the 5 ERs against the Orioles in his previous.
I am not entirely sure what DraftKings thinks when I see Kyle Gibson’s salary. Sure, he hasn’t struck out more than five batters since early May. However, he has mowed down offenses in the process by going five or more innings while allowing two or fewer earned runs. Oakland’s bats have been scary on the flip side, as shown by the 126 wRC+ and .196 ISO. Somethings got to give tonight; the question is, will Gibson falter, or will Oakland get shut down? Personally, I lean towards Gibson, especially with the tiny salary.
Rarely would I suggest any SP coming off the IL, but Cleveland is playing in an NL park. However, losing the added batter is tough on an AL squad. Even more so, Adbert Alzolay has been a solid SP. His 1.04 WHIP showcases a remarkable ability to keep traffic off the basepaths and focus on batters. He might not go very deep in the game but grabbing a few strikeouts along the way, and zeros on the scoreboard will play. I am also down-ticking him because the salary seems a touch high.
- If I am pairing a stack with a chalkier SP, a solid option would the Baltimore Orioles. In the previous two weeks, against RHP, the Orioles have a .173 ISO. While that doesn’t blow the doors off, it’s enough to show they can take plenty of mistakes deep. Keep in mind; the game is in one of the more hitter-friendly parks, Camden Yards. The only deterrent from using Baltimore is their inflated K%. However, they get a matchup against Jake Odorizzi and Houston’s suspect RPs. Target the bats from the left side like Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and DJ Stewart. Also, because the salaries are so slight, you can stack as many Orioles as you want for a full correlation factor.
- Getting a little risky with your starting pitcher? A chalkier stack is the remedy then, and an outstanding option is the Cincinnati Reds. We know the HR heroes like Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos, so any stack should start with either of them. Toss in Tyler Stephenson as well because his .440 wOBA vs. LHP comes with a .350 ISO. If there is still salary left, “The Punisher” Aristides Aquino demolishes baseballs (.576 xwOBAcon) when he makes contact.
- The highest implied run total (5.01) belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers. Typically, this makes the stack much chalkier than most, and today should be the same. If I wanted to grab a few batters from one team to make a cash lineup, this is where I would pull from. The thing to consider is the opposing pitcher, Merrill Kelly, is much better vs. left-handed hitters. So, take this tidbit and stick with righties like Avisaíl García, Willy Adames, and Luis Urías.
Featured image by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)