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DFS Plays of the Day – June 20

Previewing Monday's DFS slate.

Tonight’s eight-game slate has plenty of pitching options across the board which should make settling on bats a challenge.

 

Top Tier Pitching 

Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.

Gerrit Cole: ($10,500 DK, $10,300 FD): vs TB (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 34% CSW, 92 pitches.

In this same matchup his last time out, Cole’s heater carried a ridiculous 46.3% CSW. If you pay attention to home/road splits, Cole has been significantly worse on the road. But then again that’s really skewed by his stinker against the Twins two turns ago. Otherwise, it’s tough to find a reason to fade him. The Rays also have struggled offensively and are tied with the Royals for the fourth-lowest wOBA in baseball.

Shane McClanahan: ($10,300 DK, $11,200 FD): @ NYY (L) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 98 pitches.

Sure, it’s the Yankees. But McClanahan has been unbelievable. You won’t get any argument from me for rostering him in any format. On FanDuel, his salary is a little tough to get to where he’s the highest priced option, but again he leads the slate with a ridiculous 30.2% K-BB% so the price tag is certainly justified. This should be a really fun pitcher’s duel.

Corbin Burnes: ($9,900 DK, $10,800 FD): @ NYM (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 97 pitches.

The Cardinals have been one of the better offenses in baseball with a .321 wOBA, the eighth best. But, Burnes didn’t seem to mind and dropped 40 DK points in this matchup about three weeks ago. He just brings a floor and ceiling that’s hard to find. No reason not to take advantage on DK where his salary has dipped below $10,000 for just the third time this season.

Max Fried: ($9,500 DK, $9,800 FD): @ WSH (W) – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 104 pitches.

The Giants have been a decent team offensively and are right around the middle of the pack with a team wOBA of .319. Fried probably won’t be on many rosters considering he’s coming off a little bit of a disappointing start against the Nationals and his price on DK; just $400 more can net Burnes. But we’ve seen him dominate tough matchups plenty of times like back on 4/19 with 34.6 DK points against the Dodgers so he’s definitely worth considering especially in tournaments.

 

Mid-tier/Value Pitching

 

 

Yu Darvish: ($8,100 DK, $10,200 FD): @ CHC (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 107 pitches.

Darvish dominated the Cubs his last time out and will host the D’Backs tonight with the Padres installed as the second largest favorite on the board (-187). The D’Backs have the fourth-highest team K rate in baseball along with a wOBA of .299, tied for 23rd, and the lowest implied run total on the slate. So expect Darvish to take up a large portion of the field, especially on DK given his appealing salary.

Noah Syndergaard: ($6,400 DK, $7,800 FD): @ LAD (L) – 4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 82 pitches.

He’s not the exciting flame thrower that he was in his early days with New York, but tonight he gets the Royals who are tied with the Rays for the fourth-lowest team wOBA. He should be reasonably popular as an SP2 on DraftKings given his salary and with the Angels installed as the night’s largest favorite.

Miles Mikolas ($7,800 DK, $9,200 FD): vs PIT (W) – 8.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 129 pitches.

The Return of the Lizard King has been glorious to behold but he might be worth fading given that he threw a ridiculous 129 pitches during his bid for a no-hitter. He did get an extra day between starts, but still, I don’t think it would terribly surprising if the Cards look to limit his pitch count at least a little bit tonight. The Brewers do have a lot of power too so it’s not a great matchup either especially as a road dog. For $300 more on DK, Darvish seems like the safer call.

José Berríos: ($9,000 DK, $8,800 FD): vs BAL (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 18 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 86 pitches.

A few really bad games have muddied Berrios’ overall line but he’s put together three strong starts in a row now, culminating in a Gallows Pole against the O’s his last time out. He doesn’t seem to stand out relative to the other options tonight, so he should be relatively low in terms of roster %, especially with Darvish at $900 less on DK.

Logan Webb: ($8,400 DK, $9,400 FD): vs KC (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 36% CSW, 112 pitches.

Webb is coming off a very impressive 35.7% CSW% performance against the Royals. If you drafted him in season-long leagues, he’s been a little disappointing as a whole relative to his ADP, but maybe this is a sign that he’s turned the corner. At any rate, it is odd to see his salary go down on DraftKings after the start which was good for 33 points. The Braves have a ton of power, but, they do strike out quite a bit at 25.1%, the third-highest in baseball. If the version of Webb we saw in his last start shows up tonight, he could end up being a steal at his salary on DK. With Darvish being a heavy favorite tonight and also $300 cheaper on DK, Webb could be an interesting pivot in tournaments.

Josh Winckowski: ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD): vs OAK (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 79 pitches.

He’s cheap and a big favorite against the Tigers (-190). That’s basically the sales pitch. He did also carry a 21.0 % K-BB% through nine starts with the Woo Sox in Triple-A this year. On DraftKings, Syndergaard for $200 seems like the easy call. Even though he’s cheap, I’d have more interest in taking a chance with some Tigers bats.

Lance Lynn: ($5,800 DK, $7,000 FD): @ DET (ND) – 4.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks – 9 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 88 pitches.

He’s really cheap, especially considering that we’re talking about a pitcher who has posted a 3.26 ERA and 1.14 WHIP from 2019-2021 (449.1 IP). But, he looked off in his first start back so I’m thinking it’s best to fade him until he gets back into a groove. Especially in a tough matchup against the Jays tonight.

 

Bats and Stacks

 

  • BOS (5.6 implied run total) vs DET Alex Faedo (RHP): The Red Sox easily have the highest implied team total on the board as they go against an unproven rookie in Faedo. Not surprisingly, Rafael Devers is a priority at third base; the other options there are not too great especially with Manny Machado out with an ankle injury.
  • LAA (5.4 implied run total) vs KC Kris Bubic (LHP): Mike Trout can’t keep hitting home runs every night, right? Checks notes. Oh boy, it’s Bubic. Yes, yes he can. Taylor Ward has been quiet lately but this is a potential get-right spot against a struggling young pitcher. Lefty vs lefty matchups tend to dilute roster percentages but Bubic has allowed a .419 wOBA against LHB for his career so that could certainly work in favor of Shohei Ohtani and/or Jared Walsh.

 

  • DET (4.1 implied run total) at BOS Josh Winckowski (RHP): Yeah, I know. But, hey, the Tigers are really cheap, are going against a rookie pitcher, and they are a way to get access to the elite pitching tonight. Recently called up top prospect Riley Greene is $2,100 on DK. Robbie Grossman, Spencer Torkelson, and Victor Reyes are also below $3,000 on DK.
  • TOR (4.8 implied run total) at CWS Lance Lynn (RHP): Lynn is making just his second start back from his knee injury and he didn’t look good in his first start as his fastball velocity was down significantly. The Jays are certainly one of the more interesting stacks of the night considering all of the good pitchers going tonight.

 

  • PIT (4.1 implied run total) vs CHC Caleb Kilian (RHP): The Cubs’ rookie has made just two starts and has looked very erratic. Plus, we don’t mention the Pirates much at all so why not? They’re also calling up top prospect Oneil Cruz who has power and can steal bases too. He’s an easy play at the absolute minimum on both sites.

 

Value Bats

 

 

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Ryan Amore

Writer for PL, artist, DFS enthusiast, and occasional Yankee fan. Once won a GPP with Henderson Alvarez. A proprietor of the Ketel Marte Fan Club. Appreciates walks but only of the base on ball variety.

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