Happy Wednesday! Both FanDuel and DraftKings feature 8 game main slates starting at 7:05. There’s some potential light rain expected in the Blue Jays/Marlins game, but everywhere else looks dry. So let’s dive into the plays!
Top SP: Sean Manaea, OAK ($9,600 DK, $8,500 FD) at SEA
I’ll start by saying the pricing algorithms are broken. There are multiple pitchers that are $1.5-$2k+ different in their prices between DraftKings and FanDuel, and it’s not consistent. Jordan Montgomery is $1,800 more expensive on DraftKings, while Alek Manoah is $1,800 cheaper on DraftKings. Jon Lester is $9,100 on DK, but just $6,300 on FanDuel. That’s $9,100 for a guy who’s struggled and going on three days’ rest. What I’m getting at is you’ll likely need to have vastly different strategies for the two sites.
With it being just an 8-game slate, pitching is pretty thin up at the top. My two main targets are going to be Sean Manaea and Walker Buehler. Manaea gets a matchup against the Mariners, who have struggled at the dish. On the year, they rank 24th in team wOBA versus right-handed pitchers and are striking out at a 26% rate. Manaea has looked like his old self, and most importantly, his fastball velocity is back to its 2017 91+ rate.
Honorable Mentions: Walker Buehler, LAD ($10,600 DK, $9,700 FD) vs STL.
Value SP: Alek Manoah, TOR ($8,200 DK) vs MIA
As I mentioned earlier, you’ll have to keep an eye on the weather for this game, but if it goes, I really like Alek Manoah on DraftKings. I’m not interested in him at the $10,000 rate on FanDuel. Manoah showed us his chops in his first career start as he struck out seven Yankees batters over six scoreless innings. When we compare the matchups, going from the Yankees to the Marlins should be a big improvement. The Marlins are striking out at a 26% rate against righties and are next to last in isolated slugging.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Montgomery, NYY ($7,500 FD) vs TB.
1B Isiah Kiner-Falefa, TEX ($4,600 DK, $3,400 FD) at COL
I wanted to figure out a way to highlight the Rangers who are in Coors for a matchup with the Rockies, but their lineup is just so bad. One of the lone bright spots this year though has been Isiah Kiner-Falefa, who’s flashed both power and speed while hitting towards the top of the Rangers’ lineup. On the bump for the Rockies will be Antonio Senzatela, who, after a somewhat surprising 2020 campaign, has regressed back to his usual 5+ ERA self. The bonus part to the Senzatela matchup is that he doesn’t strike anyone out, meaning that those high-K batters like Nate Lowe and Joey Gallo should be good to go.
Honorable Mentions: Ryan McMahon, COL ($5,600 DK, $3,800 FD) vs TEX; Max Muncy, LAD ($5,200 DK, $4,000 FD) vs TB.
OF Nelson Cruz, MIN ($4,600 DK, $3,200 FD) at BAL
One of my favorite stacks of the day is going to be in Baltimore, where the Twins get a matchup with Matt Harvey. The Orioles’ righty started off the year posting a respectable 4.26 ERA through the month of April, but the wheels have fallen off the wagon as we’ve seen Harvey allowed five or more earned runs in each of his last four starts. Now he’ll take the mound on just three days rest against a Twins team that’s known for their pop. I’ll likely be sticking to the top of the Twins lineup for my stack, but Nelson Cruz will be the first player I lock in.
Honorable Mentions: Aaron Judge, NYY ($5,800 DK, $3,500 FD) vs TB; Ronald Acuña, ATL ($5,700 DK, $4,400 FD) vs WAS.
Value Batter: 2B Jed Lowrie, OAK ($3,600 DK, $2,600 FD) at SEA
Mariners’ pitcher Chris Flexen has managed to navigate the year to a 5-2 record despite a super low strikeout rate and a meh 4.65 SIERA. I think that opens the door for a sneaky Oakland stack that is also a salary saver. The most expensive bat is Matt Olson at $4,700, and with guys like Jed Lowrie and Seth Brown projected to bat third and fourth, you can stack the top of the Oakland lineup without breaking the bank. Lowrie, for his part, has started to heat up some, getting on base at a .350 clip over the last 10 days.
Honorable Mentions: Gavin Lux, LAD ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD) vs STL; Zach McKinstry, LAD ($2,800 DK, $2,200 FD) vs STL; Nate Lowe, TEX ($3,600 DK) at COL.
Top Stack: Dodgers vs STL (RHP Carlos Martinez)
I’ll be honest—the Dodgers let me down some last night. I expected them to be the team that made John Gant’s 1.60 ERA look more like his 5.65 SIERA. Regression is coming, but it was not meant to be yesterday. Today, the Dodgers face Carlos Martinez who, unlike Gant, does not have the tiny ERA. How you stack the Dodgers really depends on your salary situation. If you want to pay up for Manaea and Buehler, you’ll likely want to look to the cheaper options of Gavin Lux and Zach McKinstry. If you have some money burning a hole in your pocket, though, I’d love to roll with Mookie Betts and Max Muncy up at the top.
Good luck today!
Honorable Mentions: MIN at BAL (Harvey); COL vs TEX (Lyles); TEX at COL (Senzatela); OAK at SEA (Flexen).
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