The main slate on DraftKings features six games that could potentially be trimmed to four with the Mariners/Orioles and the Angels/Yankees games both having rain in the forecast, the latter being the second half of a day/night doubleheader after last night’s game was postponed by rain. So how about the rest of the slate? It’s Coors Field with potentially only three other games to pick from. Yes, it’s one of those slates. On FanDuel, the main slate also includes the Giants/Marlins and the Nationals/Reds games both beginning at 6:40 PM EST. But, they don’t have the Angels/Yankees game.
FanDuel Only Pitching
Note: As we go through tonight’s pitching options, you’ll find their line from their previous outing, and in the table above you’ll find their stats from this season.
Alex Wood: ($ 7,400 FD): @ CIN (L) – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 32% CSW, 96 pitches.
Sandy Alcantara: ($ 11,000 FD): @ ATL (W) – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 14 Ks – 27 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 108 pitches.
Coming off a brilliant performance against Atlanta his last time out, there’s not much to say about Miami’s ace at this point. If you’re on FanDuel, there’s value in locking him in even with a Coors Field game on tap.
Wood is an interesting option if you’re looking to squeeze in some Coors bats. The three earned runs he allowed put a damper on his line against the Reds his last time out, but the encouraging thing is that he got plenty of swings and misses (32% CSW). The southpaw seems like a reasonable rebound candidate considering his 16.8% K-BB% and 29.5% CSW this year. He could easily return value at his current salary.
Jameson Taillon: ($9,300 DK): @ TB (W) – 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 93 pitches.
Taillon has been excellent at limiting hitters to just a .284 wOBA on the year. But his strikeout rate of 19.2% leaves much to be desired. On a bigger slate, he might be a candidate to cross off at his current salary considering potential regression. Today, weather permitting, he’ll host the Angels in the nightcap of today’s double header. The Angels have K’d at a 24.3% clip, the fourth-highest in baseball. But, they’ve also banged out 68 home runs as a team, third-most, so they do, of course, have plenty of power with the likes of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Although the recent loss of Anthony Rendon is one less bat to worry about.
Sean Manaea: ($9,700 DK, $ 10,200 FD): vs PIT (ND) – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 98 pitches.
Manaea has the highest K rate on the slate at 26.4%. He might not project well from a run prevention standpoint, as the Brewers, who’ve hit the most home runs in baseball, have a decent implied total of 4.5 runs. Tonight, he’s a slight road dog at American Family Field (I miss Miller Park).
Tony Gonsolin: ($9,100 DK, $9,800 FD): @ ARI (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 92 pitches.
Gonsolin has almost certainly overachieved at least a little to get to his 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Still, his 2.48 xERA gives us an indication that possible regression shouldn’t be too severe. He’s the biggest favorite on the board (-171) but he’ll be challenged by a Mets squad that has, so far, hit for a .331 team wOBA, second behind only the Dodgers.
Adrian Houser: ($8,500 DK, $9,100 FD): @ STL (L) – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 73 pitches.
Houser doesn’t stick out from a skills perspective, but more so because the Padres offense hasn’t been that great as a whole with a .297 team wOBA, 22nd in baseball.
Reid Detmers: ($8,600 DK): vs TEX (L) – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 73 pitches.
Detmers is a young pitcher who hasn’t put it all together yet in the bigs, but his minor league numbers show that he has strikeout potential. On DraftKings, he’s an interesting option considering the Yankee lineup is watered down right now with Miguel Andújar projected to be hitting fifth. Not great.
Matthew Liberatore ($7,300 DK, $8,000 FD): vs MIL (W) – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 93 pitches.
The rookie southpaw is making his third start of the year and has shown some decent strikeout numbers including a 28.4% K rate in seven starts with Triple-A Memphis this year, so he could be a potential SP 2 on DraftKings with not too many options to pick from.
Bats and Stacks
- ATL (6.1 implied run total) at COL Austin Gomber (LHP) 9.7 K-BB%, 5.51 ERA, 1.37 WHIP: Gomber’s splits aren’t too drastic. For his career, he has allowed a .323 wOBA vs RHB and .299 vs LHB. Still, I have a sneaking suspicion we’ll be seeing a lot of Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and sure, why not, Ronald Acuña Jr. too if he’s back in the lineup after sitting yesterday with a sore foot. For Albies, we get a chance to roster him as a righty where he has shown significantly more power throughout his career. Adam Duvall is a potential punt near the bottom of the order. He’s been dreadful this year but as a player who hit 38 home runs last year, it’s not hard to imagine him paying off the $2,600 price tag on DraftKings. Michael Harris II is another potential play that will be near the bottom of the order if he’s starting against the lefty. The recently promoted prospect has shown excellent contact rates throughout the minors and has stolen base upside too. The rookie could be a potential way to try and pull off a unique-looking stack on a slate that will feature a ton of overlap.
- COL (5.1 implied run total) vs ATL Ian Anderson (RHP) 6.4% K-BB%, 4.34 ERA, 1.34 WHIP: This should be the less popular side of the Coors Field game. Anderson’s walks are up and his strikeouts are down this year. It’s still early, so maybe those trends reverse, still, that’s never a good sign, especially in Colorado. Anderson has shown some reverse splits in his career and they are evident this year; .370 wOBA vs RHB, .246 vs LHB. His K rate against RHB this year stands at 13.7%. The second-most expensive bat in the Coor’s Field game on DraftKings, C.J. Cron might be a candidate to be overlooked, relatively speaking, considering Matt Olson is $900 cheaper on the other side with Atlanta having the higher implied team total.
- BAL (4.5 implied run total) vs SEA Chris Flexen (RHP) 9.2% K-BB%, 4.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP: This game is looking dicey with potential rain, but if it does play, both sides will face pitchers with WHIPs over 1.40 so far this season. Trey Mancini seems to be perpetually underpriced on DraftKings as he’s currently rocking a cool .396 xwOBA. He could take advantage of Flexen’s reverse splits. (.369 wOBA allowed vs RHB for career). The middle of the O’s order is cheap too including Austin Hays, Anthony Santander, and Ryan Mountcastle.
- SEA (4.7 implied run total) vs BAL Jordan Lyles (RHP) 13.7% K-BB%, 4.26 ERA, 1.42 WHIP: On the other side, Lyles has long been susceptible to lefties. He’s allowing a .382 wOBA to LHB this year. Enter Jesse Winker who has a career .387 wOBA against righties. He’s a value at sub $4,000 on DraftKings.
- LAD (4.9 implied run total) vs NYM Taijuan Walker (RHP) 4.9% K-BB%, 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP: Two starts ago he tossed seven scoreless at Coors Field of all places. He followed it up by limiting the Phillies to two earned runs across five innings. Will he keep it up? Who knows, but considering his 4.9% K-BB% I’d wager against it.
- CIN (5.1 implied run total) vs WSN Joan Adon (RHP) 4.0% K-BB%, 6.08 ERA, 1.69 WHIP: On FanDuel, the Reds are in play as one of the top stacks as they’ll face arguably the weakest pitcher going tonight in Adon. Joey Votto and Nick Senzel are potential values, the latter having hit leadoff in five of the Reds’ last six games.
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