Happy Friday everyone! We have a massive 13-game main slate today on both FanDuel and DraftKings. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET in Philadelphia while we have five late games out west. With 26 teams in action tonight we have a lot to choose from but I’ll make it easy and share my favorite plays and stacks.
It’s important to have a process when playing DFS so I’ll share a few things I do every time I build a lineup.
Selecting a Pitcher
- To get a lot of fantasy points a pitcher needs to rack up the Ks. I look at a pitcher’s K% and the team K% of their opponent.
- Take a look at the lineup for the opposing team. Are all the regulars starting? How many L vs. R are there?
- Where is the game? Coors Field, Fenway Park, and Great American Ballpark are places to try and avoid.
- Look at the implied run totals for teams. Selecting hitters from teams with high IRTs is a good start.
- Look at the opposing pitcher’s stats. What is their weakness? LHH or RHH?
- Where in the lineup are they hitting? Finding cheap pieces batting near the top of the order is idea.
- Provides the best chance to win GPP tournaments
- 5-3 for DraftKings and 4-4 or 4-3-1 for FanDuel
- Diversify your stacks. Don’t always go for 1-4 in the batting order. Mix it up with the bottom of the lineup.
Ok, now that you know where to start, let’s take a look at my favorite plays for today.
Timmy’s Top 3 SP
Justin Verlander and Freddy Peralta are both on this slate and playable, however, they have some pretty tough matchups. Verlander gets Toronto at Minute Maid Park while Peralta gets the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, both game environments I’m unsure of. Here is who I am sure of tonight.
Kyle Wright, SP, ATL
Wright has come on strong so far with a 34.5 CSW% and a 35.7% K rate. His velocity is up to 94.5 MPH on his sinker, a two MPH increase from 2021. The Marlins have a 24.3% K rate and are middle of the pack in most other categories so far. Their lineup looks decent on paper but six of their starters strike out at a rate of 25% or higher. The Marlins have only scored 40 runs so far, 21st in the league.
David Peterson, SP, NYM
Peterson got up to 80 pitches in his 2nd start against Arizona and looks to build on that pitch count tonight against the same Diamondbacks team, this time at home. With a 63.6 GB% Peterson will do his best to avoid the long ball. His price on DraftKings is a little high and I like him more on FanDuel. Just don’t expect that extra four points for a quality start. I think he’ll get to 5 innings tonight with a good shot to get the W behind a Mets offense that is starting to heat up.
Texas is reasonably priced just right to fit five on DraftKings and four on FanDuel. Oller has surrendered 7 ER and 6 BBs in 4.2 innings over two starts.
What once was, is no more for Ross Stripling. Jose Altuve is out for Houston which brings their value down a bit but there is still a ton of firepower with Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. We will also get some value with whoever replaces Altuve in the lineup.
LA Angels vs. Bruce Zimmerman
Are the Orioles pitchers good this year? No, but they did improve slightly. That won’t matter tonight against the Angels who lead the league in homers. After missing the past few days, Trout should be back in the lineup tonight hitting behind Ohtani. Zimmerman has pitched well in his first two starts at home in the cold weather but tonight’s game is in Anaheim. Bruce is going to have a tough go-around against a healthy Angels lineup.
Oakland A’s vs. Glenn Otto
Otto was called up from AAA to make his first start of 2022. Otto had a 29% CSW rate in 2021, not bad, but he also gave up 24 ER and 8 walks in 23 innings, not good. The A’s have one of the weakest lineups in baseball which should lead to low ownership and great value. Stacking the A’s will allow us to pay up for pitching and pair them with some expensive bats.
Here are some of the best value bats for tonight. If you see a guy on this list, it’s safe to play other players from their team. We will see more value pop up once lineups are announced so use this as a reference and pay attention to the news, as there are always one or two guys batting at the top of a lineup that are not there on the regular.
Good luck tonight and I hope to see some of your green screens tomorrow!
Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)