We’ve got a pretty exciting 11-game slate on tap tonight with some really good pitching options at the top. As far as weather goes, it looks like there are two spots that might have rain: the KC/CWS game and the NYY/BOS game so be sure to double check everything before lock.
Today’s SPs and 2023 Stats
A quick note on PLV: If you’re curious about its intricacies, check out Nick’s primer. A quick summary: PLV is a quantifier that uses several variables to assess the quality of each individual pitch; the higher the value, the better the pitch. PLA is the ERA equivalent to PLV (the lower, the better).
There are some exciting aces worth spending up for. Tyler Glasnow ($10,800 DK, $11,500 FD) deserves the top spot I think. He’s been remarkable, just take a look at his last start: 14 K’s against Boston. Tonight he’ll face the Twins who have the highest team K rate in baseball. Sign me up.
Brandon Woodruff ($10,300 DK, $11,000 FD) has been everything the Brewers could have hoped for since returning from a shoulder injury. In six starts, he has a 25.4% K-BB, a 2.78 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and the pitch quality metrics (5.25 PLV) to back it up.
Although I am a little surprised that the Brewers aren’t bigger favorites tonight at home against the Marlins (-136 on FD). Maybe there’s something to that I don’t know. Still, I think Woodruff deserves to be at the top of the board just behind Glasnow.
We’ve seen a big dip in Framber Valdez’s ($9,800 DK, $10,800 FD) strikeouts lately: over his last six starts, he has just a 16.4% K rate. That’s not what we want.
I have no idea why but he seems to be shying away from his cutter lately which is his best pitch by whiff rate. Still, it’s the A’s and we know what Valdez is capable of. The Astros are also the biggest favorite on the board (-290 on FD).
Logan Gilbert ($9,200 DK, $10,200 FD) is a massive home favorite against the Angels (-225 on FD) who have insisted that Shohei Ohtani is “day-to-day” for a week with a lingering oblique injury. Who knows what’s going on there
Either way, Gilbert showed off a 38.5% CSW in his last outing against the Reds and is in a smash spot against a team that is playing out the string.
In the discount tier, I like the matchup for Alex Cobb ($7,800 DK, $8,600 FD); the Guardians don’t strike out much but they’ve got the third-lowest team wOBA during the second half of the season. However, Cobb carries heightened risk considering that he’s coming off a hip injury that was enough of an in issue to have his start pushed back.
Cobb’s counterpart Guardians rookie Gavin Williams ($8,000 DK, $7,200 FD) is a road underdog but he’s worth a look too given that the Giants aren’t exactly an offensive juggernaut (20th in wOBA vs. RHP). Williams has reached double-digit strikeouts twice so there’s some good profit potential at his salary.
Jesús Luzardo ($8,500 DK, $9,700 FD) did a good job surviving the Dodgers in his latest start and now gets a more suitable opponent in the Brewers who have the seventh-highest K rate in baseball against left-handers.
The Royals and White Sox have not yet announced official starters for tonight’s game. Although FD and DK seem to think it’s Dylan Cease ($8,300 DK, $8,400 FD) and Brady Singer, a rematch of last week’s barn burner.
Both are playable if that’s the case. Between the two, I’d give the edge to Cease since he carries more strikeout upside and Singer has looked pretty rough lately, although boy that White Sox lineup is equally bad too.
The Cubs get the top billing at Coors against Kyle Freeland and should be pretty chalky. I like Seiya Suzuki a lot as a one-off here; he seems too cheap on DK at $4,200. Top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is getting called up tonight and is your $2,000 special tonight.
Jordan Wicks gets the ball for the Cubs at Coors Field. The Rockies are a rough-looking lineup these days but Brendan Rodgers is a cheap second base option and I’ll never argue against taking a chance on Nolan Jones whenever he’s at home.
Mason Miller is back in our lives after exciting us earlier in the year as an up-and-coming stud with a fiery fastball. But he is only set for maybe two or three innings here after tossing just 27 pitches in his first appearance back, so the Astros are in a premium spot to do damage against whatever is lurking in Oakland’s bullpen.
I like the Dodgers as a stack because they might slip under the radar a little. The Padres are tossing out Pedro Avila, a run-of-the-mill righty, and are basically out of gas at this point, so this game might get out of hand.
The Mets get one of the better matchups of the night against Zach Davies and the sea of blue that is his player page. Pete Alonso can always break a slate, same with Francisco Lindor but there are some cheapies here too with DJ Stewart and recent call-up Ronny Mauricio who has a ton of power.
The Jays have an implied total of five runs and have a chance to make some noise against Dane Dunning who has fallen back to earth after a string of good starts. Duning’s pitch quality metrics also indicate mediocrity (4.84 PLV).
A lot has been made about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s lack of power this season. It’s true, the results speak for themselves. Still, would you be surprised if he had a big game?
Clarke Schmidt’s pitch quality metrics are very good (5.18 PLV) but he has struggled with efficiency at times. Boston, meanwhile, has an implied total north of five runs, so they could be an interesting stack that might fall a bit under the radar since this is a pretty big slate with a couple of more obvious spots, most noticeably Coors.