The featured slate of today consists of 11 of the 14 games on tap for the day, so the main focus in this article will be on those games. Best of luck with whatever lineup you end up rolling with!
Of the top dogs on the board, it’s hard to not be in love with Aaron Nola ($10,000) in this matchup against the Royals. Their roster has never really faced him and they have an 86 wRC+ facing righties across the last month. Nola is coming off a tough start versus the Pirates but should rebound here. I’d steer clear of Jesús Luzardo facing the Rangers ($9,500) and James Paxton pitching in Toronto ($9,000) based on their matchups.
Luis Castillo ($10,200) is priced a smidge higher than Nola, most likely due to his dominance over the Angels. They own a 32.1% K% and .286 xwOBA in 81 plate appearances against him. Over the last 30 days, they have the third-highest K% (27.8%) as well. Further down the board, neither Bailey Ober ($8,600) nor Merrill Kelly ($8,800) really possess the great upside someone like Hunter Brown ($8,400) does.
Brown gets the Yankees who have been medoicre at the plate facing righties lately. They have an 88 wRC+ (10th worst) over this span and have the potential to strike out heavy against Brown. He’s in the 95th percentile in xFIP and 85th in K%. Getting him at a slightly discounted price doesn’t hurt either. Reid Detmers ($8,200) also looks well-positioned to have a good day at the office as well. Detmers has some elite strikeout potential ranking in the 94th percentile in K% and 78th in CSW%. He faces Seattle who has a 28.8% K% (2nd worst) and 86 wRC+ (9th worst) against Southpaws over the last month.
It’s hard to want to take a chance at many of the other guys toward the bottom of the board, so the last starter I’ll mention here is Yu Darvish ($8,300). A date with the Dodgers is definitely not ideal, but he has handled them in the past, so I’m willing to give him a shot here pitching at home. He has a 3.65 xFIP at home this year compared to a 4.02 xFIP on the road for what it is worth. Los Angeles has been held to a .286 xwOBA and has a 28.7% K% in 230 plate appearances against Yu. That sample size is no joke, and he should get it done in San Diego tonight.
Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batters props.
If I were to bet on a team to get some runs going, it would be the Astros against Luis Severino. He continues to get obliterated start after start, and we all know the kind of pop that Houston lineup has. Aside from the obvious names in this offense, Chas McCormick ($4,300) really stands out as one to own. He is absolutely raking lately and over his last 15 games is averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game.
Jordan Lyles is the gift that keeps on giving to all offenses that face him too. He’s in the 8th percentile in CSW% and 19th in xFIP for a reason after all. The Phillies haven’t been very hot at the plate lately, but Lyles could be the antidote they are looking for. Trea Turner ($5,100) is 5-10 with a double lifetime against him and J.T. Realmuto ($4,800) is 3-6 with two doubles vs him as well. Alec Bohm ($4,000) is one of their hotter fantasy producers as of late with outputs of 24, 19, and 22 in three of his last five games.
Chris Flexen likely won’t work very deep against the Cardinals before the bullpen takes over. Even when he is in there, he is likely to be hit hard considering he’s in the 14th percentile in hard-contact rate and 8th in xFIP. Once he leaves the game he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league. Colorado has the 6th worst xFIP and 3rd worst K-BB% this season. The Cardinals have been mashing over the last month too and have a 119 wRC+ that is 6th best. Aside from the obvious names, Lars Nootbaar ($4,400) has been red-hot at the plate and is averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game over his last 15.