The featured slate at DraftKings consists of 13 of the 15 games on tap for the day. So, the main focus of this article will be on those games. The four teams omitted here are the Yankees, Marlins, Guardians, and Rays. Best of luck with your lineup today!
There’s a dearth of top-tier pitching today. Corbin Burnes ($11,200) headlines the top of the board facing the pathetic White Sox, while Blake Snell ($10,600) follows him and takes on the struggling Diamondbacks. Both are worthy of being plugged into your lineup, especially Snell given his track record against Arizona. Their roster has a 35.5% K% and .276 xwOBA across 110 plate appearances. Another dominant performance from both of them is definitely in the cards.
I’d steer clear of Luis Castillo ($10,000) taking on the Orioles who have heated up at the plate over the last two weeks with a 118 wRC+ (6th best) against righties. Andrew Abbott ($9,800) is coming off back-to-back disappointing outings but is an interesting buy-low candidate facing the Pirates. They have the 7th highest K% (25.4%) and t-5th worst wRC+ (78) against lefties dating back to the start of June. I doubt his ownership will be very high…
The rest of the group from $9,600-$7,700 all feel overpriced in my eyes, and I’m looking further down the board to the likes of Tarik Skubal ($7,500) and Paul Blackburn ($6,900). It’s a small sample, but across Skubal’s 27 innings of work, he has a 31.1% K%, 2.66 xFIP, and over the last six weeks Boston has the 7th worst wRC+ (82) and 3rd highest K% (26.7%) against left-handers. Skubal should shove, similar to the way Cole Ragans did (6.2 innings, 1 ER, 11 K’s) against them the other night.
As for Blackburn, he’s in the midst of his best form of the season. Over his last three starts, he has allowed just 3 runs, while striking out 19 across 17 ⅓ innings. I like his chances to keep this streak going in Washington who have the 6th worst wRC+ (86) against righties over the last 30 days. He has the potential to work deep into the game considering the Nationals average the fewest pitches per plate appearance among all teams. He has been surprisingly proficient this year ranking in the 98th-percentile in hard-contact%, 87th in xERA, and 76th in xFIP. At his price, he is definitely worth the gamble.
Picking what bats to target is always a struggle in my opinion. There’s so much variance around batters. They can hit one on the screws and it will lead to nothing, and that’s why I tend to stay away from wagering on batters props.
There are a few starters worth fading tonight, most notably the veterans Dallas Keuchel and Adam Wainwright. The Twins gave Keuchel his first start of the season against the Diamondbacks and he somehow managed to escape without allowing more than a run in five innings. Don’t be fooled here, he’s still awful. Alec Bohm ($4,700) has been on fire for the Phillies and is averaging nearly 10 fantasy points per game over his last 15, Nick Castellanos ($4,800) has also been seeing the ball well lately and is 7-18 with a double and homer against Keuchel. They’re a little more pricy, but they make for a great stack in this matchup.
Wainwright draws a favorable matchup with the Royals, but it really doesn’t matter what team faces him these days. He’s that bad. Kansas City has actually been pretty hot at the dish against righties lately too with a 128 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Bobby Witt Jr. ($5,800) is as hot as anyone over the last 15 days, and his price clearly reflects that. A couple of cheaper options on the Royals to pair him with are M.J Melendez ($3,300), Maikel Garcia ($4,000), Michael Massey ($3,000), and Freddy Fermin ($3,400) if he starts. All of them are hitting very well lately as well.