DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (10 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT.
SF are visiting Coors (wind out to left-center) & LAD are visiting GABP (wind out to right). Notable gusts blowing out to center for NYM@ATL. Mild wind blowing out to right-center for OAK@PIT.
Storms could be in the area for SF@COL, but they’re generally pretty good at getting the game in even if there are delay(s). Pitching more risky than normal, bats still worth playing.
CWS@NYY PPD due to air quality/smoke.
All the “no-brainer” pitching matchups happen to be prior to the Main slate, so we have some work to do.
The top pitcher of the slate in terms of ability, matchup, and environment is probably Jon Gray. He hasn’t given up more than 1 ER in over a month, he’s at home, and although he tends to be more of a FB pitcher, the park should be safe assuming the roof remains closed (rain is expected to be in the area). It doesn’t hurt that the TEX offense is putting up plenty of run support too.
After Gray, we have a number of SP2s each with their own pros/cons:
- Tanner Bibee could work vs BOS; he’ll see a mostly lefty lineup which he’s actually better against, both in K rate and PLV rating. There’s also a substantial wind blowing in, making it the safest pitching environment of the slate.
- Max Scherzer gets the most hit-friendly environment that’s not Coors/GABP vs ATL. He’s been better lately, but this is the type of matchup where he could finish with the same amount of ERs as Ks.
- Charlie Morton is in a similar spot—K rates up, GB rates improving, but still prone to some barrels to Rs and elevated FB rates to Ls. He also went up vs the Mets last month and gave up four ERs with six Ks.
- Corbin Burnes is getting more Ks lately but he still has issues with giving up FBs to Rs, and the wind is blowing out to right. The Orioles still feel like a dangerous team to try and take advantage of though.
- Logan Webb is in Coors, but he’s mainly a GB pitcher on both sides with decent K rates. If there is a pitcher that can limit the damage in Coors, it’s him, but he did regress a bit vs BAL last time out.
- Jaime Barría gets the K-happy Cubs and he has limited his ERs considerably in his starts this season (some of it due to luck). The wind is blowing out a bit, but ironically, it’s been 2 months since he’s given up a HR. His starts have been a little frustrating though with Ks, ending up with either one or six in his last four starts.
- Randy Vásquez is the extreme play, but there’s a chance it just might work given his price. The White Sox lefties haven’t done much damage recently, and Vásquez is actually decent vs Rs which could also limit their power hitters. (CWS@NYY PPD)
Cash SP2 is likely to be Jaime Barría. Tanner Bibee could work for all formats. If BAL goes with a mainly lefty lineup, Corbin Burnes is probably the best GPP pitcher, with Charlie Morton, Logan Webb & Randy Vásquez the more risk/reward plays (in order of possible ownership).
Max Scherzer is likely to get too much ownership for his risk factor—in that case, the GPP play is to fade him entirely.
It’s a Coors slate! It’s a GABP slate! It’s both! Obviously, we want pieces from both, but there are other spots as well that also favor hitters; since there are many options for pitching on this slate, the leverage move might be to build the bats you like first and then work in the pitchers that fit for what you’re trying to do.
For starters, it’s lefties vs Connor Seabold. LaMonte Wade Jr. had 3 hits and 3 runs in yesterday’s game alone, so might as well stick with him to start. Patrick Bailey also had 3 hits and tends to hit out to left, which is where the wind will be blowing in Coors. The spray chart also looks positive for Michael Conforto, who returned yesterday.
Moving on to GABP, we get Mjolnir-free Thor—the top pitcher for SB allowed this season (16 SB allowed in 11 starts). He also tends to give up hard contact hits to lefties. Who fits this description? Elly De La Cruz, who has finally been unleashed on poor pitchers in the bigs! EDLC didn’t attempt a stolen base last night, but this should be a prime spot for him to get at least one. Jake Fraley is hitting Rs well too—and is 2nd on the team in SBs, only 1 SB behind Jonathan India. Lastly, if you need a value play with upside, Stuart Fairchild is 3rd on the team with steals, provided he gets on-base.
Brandon Williamson is still mainly a warm body keeping a spot in the rotation, and he has an issue with barrel hits. Three proven bats in that area this season are J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, & Will Smith. If you need an extreme value play to offset some of these higher-priced bats, you can try Jonny DeLuca—he only has one major league start since his callup, but lefty smashing was supposed to be his thing in the minors, so this may be his big shot.
NYM@ATL has two decent pitchers, but both have a history of volatility and the park conditions are prime for potentially big plays. For ATL, Eddie Rosario has certainly been hot, with five XBH out of seven hits in his last four games (3 HR, 1 3B, 1 2B). He also doesn’t strike out much. Matt Olson has the potential for big plays but hasn’t shown them much lately—but he does have three hits in his last two games so he could be a shot for GPPs if you want to be early on him.
For the Mets, Daniel Vogelbach hit a HR off Charlie Morton in their last meeting, and his recent hitter profile suggests he could do it again. Mark Canha is the other Mets bat that matches up well with Morton’s recent struggles with power R bats.
Angel Stadium plays shallow when the wind blows to certain spots in center, and today will be one of those days. Jameson Taillon has had some issues with hard-hit FB contact to lefties, and Shohei Ohtani is making those types of hits lately—four XBH out of six hits in the last three games (2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR). Matt Thaiss also has hits in 3 straight, with one double.
There will be a decent wind blowing out to deep right in Yankee Stadium today (and unfortunately Judge will miss it)—but Lance Lynn is coming to town with his issues with lefties. Jake Bauers had 2 HRs the other night as a min-priced special on DraftKings (c’mon guys, put some effort into pricing). He’s a little more than the other night, but still foolishly cheap for what Lynn could serve up to him. If you want to double up, Anthony Rizzo’s spray chart suggests he could break out of his funk here, but he’s been without an XBH for almost 2 weeks. (CWS@NYY PPD)
Lastly, given how well the Rangers are hitting lately, TEX ownership may be high and they’re an option if you have salary on the table. Jack Flaherty has been regressing vs lefties lately, and the trio of Corey Seager, Nathaniel Lowe, & Travis Jankowski are all hitting well in the past week. Ezequiel Duran has also returned and picked up where he left off hitting R pitching.
- Yordan Alvarez & Kyle Tucker got well acquainted with Rogers Centre the other night (at Manoah’s expense) and Chris Bassitt’s recent regression vs Ls could yield similar results.
- Speaking of the Astros, as long as they’re in town, George Springer is worth considering vs his former team.
- Patrick Corbin is on the slate, so there are always options when he’s around—Evan Longoria, Christian Walker & Emmanuel Rivera all hit Ls well.