Slate Details
FanDuel – Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
DraftKings – Main slate (12 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Pitching
It’s important to be aware of the matchups when prospecting on pitchers, but that’s just one factor to consider. It’s not everything.
With that in mind, Kevin Gausman is a fairly matchup-proof pick. He’s not without a couple of clunkers this year, but he’s been one of the best starters this season for good reason. He gets Houston tonight… and, yes, I know that the Astros put up eight against Gausman in just 3 1/3 innings a month ago. Hopefully, that keeps a lot of other bettors away from Gausman because I’m still invested.
Hunter Brown takes the ball on the other side for Houston. Brown has an elite curveball that’s set up well by a biting four-seamer. The curve has a 31.9% whiff rate and .172 expected batting average against. He’s a real talent, but he hasn’t exactly been consistent with a 2.37 ERA in April and 4.78 in May. Are batters starting to figure him out? That’s a little too much uncertainty for my tastes, especially at his price.
Mitch Keller has also hit some bumps in an otherwise impressive path through the first two months of the season. He’s given up 10 earned runs in his past two starts which is as many as his previous seven starts combined. Despite giving up 10 hits in his last start, it wasn’t quite as bad as it looked with eight of those hits going for singles. I’m still on board the Keller Redemption Train and Oakland is about as good as it gets for an opponent.
It’s hard to ignore Bryce Elder at this point after he’s allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past six starts. But he also has not struck out more than six in any of those starts and rarely pitches into the seventh inning, so there’s a bit of a cap on his upside. He gets the Mets tonight, which is not great from a matchup perspective, but he’s put up excellent starts against Houston, Baltimore, Toronto, and others this season, so I can’t exactly take points away there.
Still, I’m avoiding Elder. His fastball is underwhelming, he doesn’t get many whiffs, and he allows far too much hard contact to sustain his current pace. He leads all qualified starters with a 1.92 ERA, but his xERA is a whopping 4.16.
Logan Gilbert sits on the other end of that spectrum. Gilbert’s ERA is 4.08 but his xERA is 3.03. One of the best indicators of future success in pitchers is K-BB% and Gilbert is currently fourth among qualified starters at 24.4%. Gilbert also struggles to pitch deep into games, only pitching into the seventh three times this season.
If you want to save money, you’ll have to take on more risk. Shane Bieber (vs Boston) has struggled lately and his strikeouts are down, but has otherwise been solid again this season. James Paxton (at Cleveland) has pitched well in his return from the IL, but he is clearly on a bit of a leash.
The same is true of Tony Gonsolin (at Cincinnati). Kyle Gibson (at Milwaukee), Dane Dunning (vs St. Louis), and Clarke Schmidt (vs Chicago White Sox) — all offer low upside but potential profit.
Those with an adventurous spirit might want to look to Arizona’s Tommy Henry. The rookie was excellent his last time out, pitching seven scoreless innings against Colorado while allowing just two hits and a walk. He also struck out seven. It was easily the best start of his career, which was a fairly low hurdle to clear. Henry does not have elite swing-and-miss stuff and his control is questionable, but he does a good job limiting hard contact. And he draws the Nationals tonight.
Hitting
Freddy Peralta struggled in May with a 5.61 ERA and his propensity to give up the long ball carries a lot of the blame. Adley Rutschman is hitting .419 over his past eight games. Anthony Santander was hitless in a three-game series in San Francisco, but he gets a pass after putting up a 1.056 OPS and hitting .337 in May with seven home runs.
Dinelson Lamet’s return to the starting lineup did not go well last week for the Rockies who now head home to Coors Field. That certainly isn’t going to make things any easier for a pitcher like Lamet who relies heavily on his breaking balls.
J.D. Davis has hit the cover off the ball all season and his hard-hit rate and average EV are among the best in the league. He’s also hitting .379 on sliders – a pitch that Lamet throws over 50% of the time. LaMonte Wade Jr. had a seven-game hit streak snapped Sunday and has a positive split against righties (.292/.436/.493).
Mitch Haniger had a dreadful six-game homestand, but he always seems to enjoy playing on the road more anyway. Michael Conforto has not started in the past week with a foot injury, but he was on a good roll before that and could be back in the mix tonight.
The Giants are going with a bullpen game, so the Rockies’ bats are in play too. Ryan McMahon is batting .441 with five home runs since just May 25. Over that same span, Ezequiel Tovar is hitting .359. Alan Trejo is on a modest five-game hitting streak and comes cheap.
Matthew Liberatore had a great rookie debut for the Cardinals back on May 17 but has looked overmatched in a limited sample size since. Against any other team, I might be a little more forgiving, but this is the Rangers. I’m not sure that Liberatore is going to be the one to slow them down.
Corey Seager looks like the best player on the planet and is 96th percentile or higher in average EV, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and barrel rate. Marcus Semien is on a 24-game hitting streak. Jonah Heim has hits in nine straight and is slashing .372/.413/.558 against lefties. Jace Jung, Adolis García, and Ezequiel Duran also love southpaws.
Hayden Wesneski returns to the starting rotation for the Cubs after Justin Steele was sent to the IL. The rookie lost his job after posting a 5.03 ERA in eight starts. He’s giving up a .316 batting average to left-handed hitters this season which should be good news for Shohei Ohtani.
On the other side, Nico Hoerner is a good play. Hoerner has hits in 10 of his past 13 games and smacks lefties to the tune of .309/.356/.455. He’s also 2-for-5 with a home run in his career vs. Tyler Anderson.
Jake Irvin has been awful for the Nationals this season. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Lourdes Gurriel have all been running hot lately for Arizona.
James Kaprielian has been even worse for Oakland. Ke’Bryan Hayes is 10-for-20 with two home runs in his past five games. Bryan Reynolds and Andrew McCutchen have been solid, too.