Today is Memorial Day – a humble thanks to all who have served or are honoring those who have served.
Slate Details
Given the holiday, the sites are treating this like a Saturday – the full schedule of games is split in two with the PIT@SF game being the odd game out as it falls into the break between early/late slates.
DraftKings/FanDuel – Main slate (6 games) – starts 1:05 PM EDT; Night slate (4 games) – starts 8:07 PM EDT.
Weather Impact
Ironically, since it’s a day game, the most hit friendly park happens to be CLE@BAL. Other than that, winds are blowing in for KC@STL & TB@CHC (1PM) and out a bit for WAS@LAD & ATL@OAK (8PM). No rain expected.
Pitching (1PM)
*likely bulk innings pitcher after opener
Far and away, the SP1 for the early slate is Nathan Eovaldi – he pitches deep into games, is on a team with solid run support, limits HRs, and gets the Tigers (although they have been playing better lately, which may be more a by-product of who they’ve been playing). He’s a safe and solid pitcher to start your lineups with in all formats.
SP2 should be interesting for this slate – the chalk might end up being Adam Wainwright because he’s facing KC at home and that’s safer than facing TB like Marcus Stroman. However, Waino just isn’t getting the Ks anymore, and he does have moments where he walks too many batters. STL also appears to be regressing again, so if a win isn’t guaranteed and he’s not going to pitch 8 innings or rack up Ks, there just isn’t much upside to him.
Marcus Stroman isn’t getting a ton of Ks either, but he does force a lot of GB contact, and the wind is going to be blowing in at Wrigley field which is ideal for his style of pitching. The Rays can be contained on the road, but Stroman will have to limit walks and steals once the Rays are on base. Personally, this is another option that I may skip as his ceiling likely isn’t much higher than his floor.
I’m rolling the dice with J.P. France at SP2 – K rates are solid, and PLV loves him. I tried picking on the Twins on Saturday and it didn’t work- but now the Twins are on the road. What works in France’s favor here is his strong GB contact vs Ls – which should limit the power of Joey Gallo & Max Kepler – and his strong K rate vs Rs which plays into the tendencies of many of the Twins Rs vs right-hand pitching.
Other pitchers that could see ownership for the 1PM slate are:
- Tyler Wells – possibly gets some looks since it’s vs CLE – and he’s a guy that you can trust vs lesser teams – but if you’re playing him, you’re more than likely hoping he doesn’t hurt you than help you.
- Taj Bradley – the Cubs can strike out a fair amount, but they can also chain hits if you’re not careful. The wind blowing in here helps, but he’s still gaining experience, and if the Rays don’t take advantage of Stroman early, he may not stay patient enough to limit hard contact.
- Ryne Nelson – also probably gets some play as he gets the Rockies away from Coors, but he was not sharp vs them last month and he doesn’t have a ton of K upside. The D-backs should support him with runs vs Karl Kauffmann though, which makes him a slightly safer play than Waino & Stroman.
- Sonny Gray – talent-wise, one of the strongest options on the slate, but HOU is a tough team to pick on in their home park, and you’re paying a premium for him. He does have a path to success though, as he forces mainly GB contact vs Ls and has strong K rates vs Rs.
The cash arms are likely Eovaldi & Nelson. For GPPs, I prefer Eovaldi & France.
Batting (1PM)
The popular stack should be D-backs, as Karl Kauffmann is still struggling to limit hard contact and ERs. He’s only had two starts, but when he gives up barrels, it’s to R bats. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the hardest-hitting R bat on the D-backs lately, but there’s a lot to like about Christian Walker & Corbin Carroll too.
The Rangers should see a lot of ownership vs Matthew Boyd too – Nick feels that Boyd is bouncing back, so this could be a spot that could disappoint, but going with 1-2 select bats or a mini-stack is a solid way to have exposure without being overcommitted. Robbie Grossman has been strong vs L pitching all season (and is a former teammate of Boyd’s), and if you’re going to pay up for a Ranger bat, Marcus Semien feels like the better bet, as he hits to both corners while Adolis García mainly hits to the left side (and the wind will be mostly left-to-right across the field).
As mentioned in the weather section up top, if Orioles Park is a hitting-friendly environment, there are some key bats for BAL vs Ls – Ryan Mountcastle & Austin Hays.
Mike Mayers is projected to be the main pitcher behind KC’s starter today, and his profile largely favors L bats. STL appears to have cooled off a bit again, but there are some bats to consider as isolated plays. Nolan Gorman favors LD hitting vs Rs (which happens to be Mayers’s main weakness), Brendan Donovan has been playing well lately, and Alec Burleson had a HR yesterday and could be a nice value play.
On the other hand, if you want to go contrarian and look for KC@STL to shoot out (or just bust Waino), there are a number of L bats on KC that favor LD hitting which is the main type of hard hit Waino allows. Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, & Nick Pratto all hit Rs primarily with LD hard hits, and Nicky Lopez is a value play that has a strong ability to force walks and get on base and maybe even steal one.
Other one-offs:
- Jeremy Peña is hitting Rs well lately and could be one play for HOU if they get to Sonny Gray.
- Charlie Blackmon has a current 10-day hit streak going.
- Dansby Swanson & Mike Tauchman are two possible key bats for the Cubs if they get to Taj Bradley.
Pitching (8PM)
It’s a small slate, and it’s built around a whole lot of uncertainty with pitching. Mike Soroka had some limited action in spring training, and it sounds like he’s been working up to normal levels for this start, so he should be good enough to be counted on vs OAK…but it’s not a guarantee.
(He’s not currently listed on FanDuel, but he likely ends up a late add during the day tomorrow)
Bobby Miller probably ends up as SP2 (SP1B?) due to the matchup with WAS and expectations that the LAD bats show up at home for run support…but small sample size. This DraftKings price will make him überchalk.
Eury put together 5 innings of 2 hit ball vs the Angels yesterday, and momentum is definitely on Michael Kopech’s side. He’s probably the one pitcher you can argue has a stable case for not letting you down on this slate.
Bryce Miller has the starts under his belt now to suggest he’s ready to take on the Yankees in his home park, but his only negative start was vs ATL and the Yankees might have woken up a bit during the Padres series. He’s quite pricey for a risky matchup without a lot of starts…but the Yankees do have to travel cross-country for this one.
Batting (8PM)
Given the Bobby Miller price on DK, there’s going to be a whole lot of ownership on Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., Sean Murphy, & Matt Olson. If you want to get a little different, consider going over the field on a SEA stack and count on Domingo Germán struggling without the sticky stuff.
ATL@OAK
It’s been almost a year since Paul Blackburn has pitched in a regular season game, and his rehab assignment hasn’t been great – an ERA hovering around 8, and a WHIP around 2.0. This isn’t really a slate for balanced builds, so if you’re going to load up on ATL bats, REALLY load up on ATL bats (i.e. stack top four of Acuña, Olson, Austin Riley, & Murphy). The other option is to go with low-owned ATL pivots and go heavy on LAD bats. The pivots would be Marcell Ozuna & Eddie Rosario.
Another option, if you want to get different, is to stack As and hope Soroka doesn’t have his…A game either. It’s possible Soroka isn’t ready for the new disengagement and pitch clock rules, and with Esteury Ruiz getting the day off yesterday, he could be in for a multiple-steal night. Ryan Noda & Seth Brown are worth considering to fill out the stack.
WAS@LAD
The Dodgers lose some of their appeal with the loss of Max Muncy last night, but you can still load up on the top four here with Mookie Betts, Freeman, J.D. Martinez, & Will Smith. Ownership may also be lower because of the loss of Muncy, but Martinez is probably the one bat with the most upside if you want to just play a one-off.
NYY@SEA
Does Domingo Germán come off his suspension with a chip on his shoulder and pitch a statement game? Or does he come out missing a certain element of his game and miss most of his spots? If you want to get different, go all in on the latter. As with the other stacks, go big or go home – look to stack from the middle here starting with Julio Rodríguez and continue with Jarred Kelenic, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suárez, & Teoscar Hernández if you think Germán can’t strike anybody out.
LAA@CWS
Personally, these are two teams I don’t like counting on. Kopech is a primarily FB pitcher on both sides (slightly weaker vs Rs), but the park is only likely to have a light left-to-right breeze so I doubt it hurts him much. Obviously, there’s Mike Trout who’s the definitive righty that can make you pay, but he is only an ultra-contrarian play on this slate. As for Griffin Canning, he’s also a pitcher who tends to give up solid hits to Rs, so maybe Eloy Jiménez in his first home game post-appendectomy is worth a one-off play?