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Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (10 games) – starts 7:06 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (10 games) – starts 7:07 PM EDT
Weather Impact
It’s a slate with Coors and a stiff wind blowing out to right at Fenway.
Pitching
There are a number of decent options for SP1, but the winner for me is Framber Valdez. The Cubs are really struggling as an offense right now, and Valdez has the perfect combo of K-upside and GB-forcing contact that the Cubs don’t want to see right now.
SP2 for this slate feels like a close race between Freddy Peralta, Michael Wacha, & Jack Flaherty. All three have safe park + weather matchups, and have the stuff to limit offenses, but their opponents have all shown dangerous sides lately.
Wacha is probably the 3rd of that bunch for me – given his lower K rate vs Rs – and Bobby Witt Jr. & Salvador Perez are the Rs that drive the KC offense.
That leaves us with Peralta & Flaherty – STL & MIL faced off the 1st week of April, and Peralta had the better outing of the two. Flaherty also has not been sharp in his last two outings – although the STL offense didn’t do him many favors during that time either.
So the #2 award for the slate likely goes to Freddy Peralta. I could see this being a possible pitcher’s duel, however, with the wind blowing straight in.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the As are still bad, Drew Rucinski isn’t a good pitcher in general (and D-backs don’t need much help), and Merrill Kelly has been good enough vs weaker offenses this season that he can be trusted in this spot.
The last option worth mentioning is Pablo López, but the Dodgers are still risky to pick on, and the park + weather combo is also risky in this matchup. He’s got the GB stats to pull this off (which is why I’m including him) but you’re probably better off with the others listed previously.
In summary, the cash arms are Framber Valdez & Freddy Peralta. GPP arms in order are likely Merrill Kelly, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha, and Pablo López if you’re feeling frisky.
Batting
Outside of the As, the pitcher to target just happens to be Connor Seabold in Coors. The Reds are on a big road trip from MIA to COL, but they can still be trusted in this spot.
Jake Fraley had a day off yesterday and should pick up where he left off crushing baseballs. Tyler Stephenson also had a good series in MIA, despite better pitching than he’ll see here in Coors.
TJ Friedl hasn’t ended up on the IL yet, so he’s worth watching to see if he returns today. Matt McLain also got a call-up late on Sunday, so if he makes the player pool, he’s a great punt with upside (as of this writing, he’s on DraftKings at SS).
Charlie Blackmon & Ryan McMahon are the two Rockies that would complete the Coors stack, but Blackmon should have the higher floor. Greene has higher FB hit rate stats, but doesn’t have the barrel or hard hit rates that would lead to a total blow-up, so I’m viewing Blackmon as a one-off bring back.
Michael Toglia is an intriguing punt who is being called up to replace Cron, if you want to take a chance on him.
After Coors, we want to focus again on lefties at Fenway Park – the weak link to exploit just happens to be lefties vs Tanner Houck.
Jarred Kelenic is the bat to have here, and you can pair him again with J.P. Crawford if he continues to lead off. Cal Raleigh is also a solid choice at catcher if you want to make a stack.
George Kirby is a decent pitcher with average K rates and dominant GB tendencies to batters on both sides. It’s still Fenway with the wind blowing out though, and as the saying goes, “Life finds a way.” For tournaments, you can certainly game stack with Ls from both teams, but the safer play is to probably stick with the cheaper BOS Ls as one-offs or salary relief.
Enmanuel Valdez is still cheap on all sites and he almost hit a HR again yesterday at home. He’s almost worth a flier in any Fenway game due to his price and low ownership. Triston Casas is on a nice streak currently, with 10 hits in his last 12 games.
Welcome to the daily Exploit the As feature. Today we have the D-backs vs Drew Rucinski, who’s given up 5 runs or more in each start so far. The As have been swapping pitchers at short notice lately, so monitor for any changes.
Dominic Fletcher is an easy choice given his price and steady production and is suitable as a one-off, a cash play, or GPP option. When it comes to stacking, it might depend on which lineup the D-backs go with, but all of the following are solid plays vs Rucinski – Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pavin Smith, Josh Rojas, & Evan Longoria.
The Twins are on quite a heater lately- can it last? For now, it sounds like Noah Syndergaard is going to go despite his blister. The wind is blowing out at Dodger Stadium, so if his control isn’t there, a Twins stack could be a nice late hammer for your lineup.
Start with Joey Gallo and Alex Kirilloff as a nice 1-2 punch. Trevor Larnach also conveniently rejoined the team for this recent hot streak and is worth a look.
The last game to consider features two lefties with the wind blowing out in Oracle Park. Bailey Falter is the likely pitcher behind PHI’s opener, which makes recent call-up Casey Schmitt a must-play. Mitch Haniger would also be a good play if it ends up turning into a bullpen game.
It’s unknown how long Alex Wood will go for SF, but Bryson Stott is heating up again and back to the lead-off spot (and hits well vs both L/R pitching). Bryce Harper is likely the stud bat to go after if you have money to burn, and although Kyle Schwarber somewhat disappointed in Coors, his spray chart lines up well with the bay outside Oracle Park if he’s so inclined.
Notable one-offs:
- Nathaniel Lowe has one of the largest current active hit streaks in the league, going back to Apr 29.
- Juan Soto got his groove back recently, and Brad Keller should keep it going.
- Brandon Belt & Kevin Kiermaier are in Rogers Centre vs Jhony Brito (for as long as he lasts).