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Slate Details
OwnersBox- Main slate (11 games) – starts 7:04 PM EDT
DK/FD – Main slate (11 games) – starts 7:05 PM EDT
Weather Impact
Back in Coors for ARI@COL – wind blowing slightly in, slightly cooler, but still the highlight of the slate for bats.
PIT@WAS officially PPD; ATL@NYM is very risky – updates will be posted in our Discord in the #dfs-and-bets channel.
Pitching
Jacob deGrom is still the king – sure, the Yankees took advantage of Maeda the other day, but deGrom is a righty at a different level. Wind is likely to be swirling around, and Aaron Judge could miss this game after leaving with an injury yesterday. We’ll have to find some value later to fit Coors bats and deGrom, but that’s why you’re here, right?
The Mets are really struggling right now after losing a series with the Nats – yes, you read that right. They bounced back a bit yesterday to save some face, but David Peterson and his 6+ ER in his last two starts (and 5+ in 3 out of last 4) isn’t a guy you look to build on positive momentum. Max Fried hasn’t had A-list stuff so far this season – moderate K rates at best – but with the ATL bats behind him and limiting errors, he’s been good enough to hang with teams like HOU in his last start, and should be good enough here for a safe SP2. The sites also haven’t priced him up yet, so given the price & matchup, I expect Fried to be the chalk SP2 and the rational choice to pair with deGrom. UPDATE: ATL@NYM is very risky – could be anything from PPD to delayed start to in-game delays. Bats may be worth the risk, but Fried could see limited innings.
The White Sox are also struggling a bit, and Zach Eflin has started the season 3-0. He didn’t necessarily dominate the White Sox back on 4/23, but he got the win with 4 Ks and 1 ER. The price seems a little steep for who he is, but he’s a pivot option on this slate that should still get the win and provide a relatively safe floor.
Another option that doesn’t offer much in savings but has decent upside is Framber Valdez vs the Phillies. Lefties limit some of the power in the Phillies lineup, and although a win isn’t a sure thing with Aaron Nola on the other side, HOU shut out the Rays in their last two games.
Is Alek Manoah back? It’s probably too early to say, and his last outing vs the Yankees probably said more about the Yanks (and the assist from the stiff wind blowing in) than him turning the corner, but he’s priced down to match. If you want to be ahead of the curve, you can try and take advantage of the discount and maybe catch enough good stuff out of him to make him a solid value pivot. SEA bats are still a bit scary, though, so this is not without a fair amount of risk.
One last option worth mentioning for the matchup is Wade Miley vs the Angels. The Angels took advantage of the As – like many teams – and maybe they come into this series on the road a little sore from all the free swingin’ and runnin’ of the bases back home. You can still take advantage of the Angels with competent lefty pitching, and Miley fits the bill. It doesn’t hurt that Tyler Anderson could be generous in giving up hits and runs either.
Batting
The siren song of Coors calls us back, as well as the D-backs and Rockies who will be rested after both having Thursday off. The D-backs are on the upswing and still currently leading the NL West, although they aren’t as powerful vs a lefty as they have a more balanced lineup and still keep a few lefties in regardless of who they face.
The wind will be blowing straight in, but power bats that have a solid combo of hard hit rate + LD hit rate should rack up XBH. Christian Walker has one of the highest LD rates on the team vs lefties and should continue to bat cleanup. Gabriel Moreno is 2nd, but currently holding the highest ISO & OBP for the team vs lefties. Emmanuel Rivera is a recent call-up that has been batting high in the order vs lefties and should provide decent volume at his price. Lastly, if you want to complete a stack, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will likely end up between Rivera & Walker and has an impressive 58.3% hard contact rate vs lefties.
Ketel Marte will likely be leading off – and therefore, popular – but even though he has a long history of facing the Rockies, he only has 5 XBH in 34 AB vs Freeland, and is currently hitting ~50% GB rate vs lefties, so if you want to pivot for tournaments, he may be one to skip.
As PLV shows, Merrill Kelly is a righty that has slightly more trouble with righty bats and doesn’t strike them out much. Elias Díaz is actually the Rockies bat that checks all the boxes – highest RvR ISO, high LD rate, high hard contact rate, and best OBP based on recent data.
If you’re playing on OwnersBox or FanDuel, stacking both catchers from this game would be a low-owned, upside play. Next in line, we have Kris Bryant… if you’ve followed my articles to date, you’ll know this guy does the opposite of what I expect him to do, so I quietly endorse Bryant in this spot. It’ll be our little secret. One value bat to include from this game is Ezequiel Tovar – he has an underrated 83% LD rate vs righties, including a double vs Bibee in his last game. Another one that will likely be popular is Mike Moustakas, who has secured a regular spot in the lineup now that the Montero experiment is over. Personally, I feel his best days are behind him, but he does have a 36% LD rate and 31% hard contact rate, so he’s in play for his price.
Chad Kuhl is a pitcher I’ve marked as a target in this article before, and he just happens to be facing the hottest team in MLB lately – the Pittsburgh Pirates! As with the Rockies game, the wind is not in the batter’s favor at Nationals Park tomorrow, so targeting Kuhl with LD power is the way to go. Carlos Santana & Connor Joe are two solid righty mashers, and Jack Suwinski will likely end up between them, making a solid stack. Watch the top of the lineup for Tucupita Marcano – he also has a high LD hit rate and isn’t afraid to steal bases if given the opportunity. UPDATE: PIT@WAS PPD
As mentioned above in the pitchers section, the Brewers get Tyler Anderson, who is also a quality target. We already have two catchers from Coors, but William Contreras is equally good in this spot vs Anderson. Mike Brosseau again will lead off, and given his price, will likely be chalky (and of course, hit a HR last time he started vs a lefty). Anderson can be targeted from both sides, so an under-the-radar L-on-L play would be Rowdy Tellez. Finally, if you need another value bat with upside if he gets on base, Joey Wiemer is worth another shot if you need the savings.
If you want to really get off the radar entirely, we have two pitchers in CIN@OAK that are both exploitable if you can stomach it. Henry Ramos has been a fun call-up for CIN recently, and Nick Senzel & Stuart Fairchild are also hard hitters with quality OBP rates vs lefties recently. For the As, both Shea Langeliers & Brent Rooker are crushing the ball lately. It’s an egregious game stack, but it’s just that type of stack that you could load up with Coors and one-off power bats and potentially take down a GPP at low ownership.
Other bats worth mentioning…
- Jarred Kelenic is one of those bats that could get to Alek Manoah if he hasn’t fully flipped the switch.
- There may be some interest in trying to use Rich Hill vs WAS, but Jeimer Candelario & Lane Thomas could play spoiler. UPDATE: PIT@WAS PPD
- Shane Bieber isn’t normally a guy to target, but 1) he hasn’t been sharp this season, 2) we can’t fully overlook a game at Fenway, and 3) the Red Sox just find a way to be competitive. Rafael Devers is going to be a low-owned (but high-priced) pivot from all the cheap 3B options on this slate, and Jarren Duran & Justin Turner are also playable.
- Did you think I’d forget David Peterson? The trio of Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, & Ozzie Albies is another stack you could pair with that ugly CIN@OAK game stack. UPDATE: Watch for game updates close on this one if you try to play bats – anything could happen up to – and through – gametime.