DFS Plays of the Day – 3/30

PLV says we should be going hard after Hunter Greene, and I agree, especially given the discount on his salary relative to the other options. Greene, however, did have a high fly-ball rate last year, so he’s a little volatile given the small confines at the GABP. The Reds are installed as strong favorites (-140) as they host the Pittsburgh Pirates, who had the third-lowest team wOBA last season.

The Washington Nationals weren’t much better last season, as they had the ninth-lowest team wOBA last year. Max Fried draws the Opening Day assignment. While he might carry a little less strikeout ability than his counterparts, his team is the biggest favorite on the board (-250).

Few pitchers in baseball were as effective as Blake Snell in the second half last season when he logged a 27.3% K-BB% across 78 IP. He gets a favorable draw against the road Rockies, who had the lowest team wOBA on the road last season.

Opening Day for the Washington Nationals means Patrick Corbin, who finished last season with a 6.30 ERA and 1.72 WHIP. I suspect we’ll see plenty of rosters headed by the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and friends. To be fair, Corbin probably didn’t deserve an ERA over 6.00. Still, his combination of low strikeouts (18% K rate) and hard hits (.380 xwOBA) is tough to avoid given the relative strength of the other pitchers on the docket. Fading the Atlanta offense could pay off in tournaments, but it’s also a little scary.

The Cincinnati Reds have one of the higher implied team totals of the day at 4.7 runs. I’m a little torn on Mitch Keller. He did make some improvements last year, but still ended with a 20.1% K rate and a WHIP of 1.40, so not great. But he did have an impressive spring and showcased a revamped cutter. So maybe there’s something there. Regardless, I do like Jake Fraley as a one-off at $4,200. He’ll have the L/R advantage and carries power and speed upside. Rookie Will Benson, whom the Reds acquired from the Guardians this past offseason, is a boom/bust option with big power who costs the minimum at $3,000.

A few years ago, we’d have considered Zack Greinke as a pitching option on this slate. Not so much anymore. The Twins could reap the benefits of facing the former ace, who carried a 12.5% K rate last season with an xERA of 4.88. Trevor Larnach strikes out a lot, but he’s got power and is a potential punt play to consider.

For tournaments, any time you can get a great offense at a relatively low roster %, you have to at least consider it. That might be the case with the Blue Jays as they’ll face Miles Mikolas. He was great last year, but it’s not hard to imagine him regressing back toward his career mean, especially considering his 19% K rate.

The Angels are in an interesting spot against an inexperienced left-hander in Kyle Muller, and they could get overlooked a bit. As I mentioned earlier this offseason, Anthony Rendon and leadoff man Taylor Ward rated out favorably in the PLV hitting metrics.

I don’t want to pick on Logan Webb, but if you’re looking for a punt, Yankee shortstop Anthony Volpe is only $3,000. My hunch is that price probably goes up from here.

FanDuel’s main slate features 11 games, omitting the four late games on the West Coast. Greene stands out again here in the middle tier at $9,100. I’m not sure I could get on board for any of the cheaper options, though. Maybe Mitch Keller ($7,400) if you’re feeling frisky in tournaments and want to roll the dice based on how he has looked this spring.

As mentioned earlier, Atlanta headlines the slate in terms of bats. They’ll cost you on FanDuel, but Marcell Ozuna ($2,500) is a potential punt.

Twins bats are pretty affordable, including Max Kepler ($2,500) and Jose Miranda ($2,800).

Kyle Gibson is one of those pitchers you never want to roster but at the same time can be a tough pitcher to stack against. Regardless, Red Sox rookie 1B Triston Casas has the platoon advantage and the power to pay off his $2,700 salary.

DK is running the same 11-game slate as FD. Fried ($8,100), Snell ($7,900), and Greene ($7,400) seem like easy plays here too, but McClanahan ($7,700) really stands out as the must-play. Nola ($8,100) seems a little too cheap too but is probably more of a tournament play as an albeit minor road underdog (115) versus deGrom and the Rangers. The Mets were a tough offense last season (sixth-best team wOBA), but Sandy Alcantara could easily pay off $8,500.