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DFS Daily Breakdown – June 29

Dave Swan breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a fun slate today, and the first things you should notice – PITCHING! We’ve got a bevy of talented arms and with only seven games. What does it mean when there are lots of talented arms and few options to stack? First, the value plays will be slightly limited, which will make building your lineups more challenging. Furthermore, overall slate scoring might be lowered as well. Lastly, focus a bit less on your SPs, and try to double-stacking. For instance, stack four from Atlanta with three from Cleveland.

But wait! There is an outlier game…LAD@COL. This doozie of a matchup will make the slate exceedingly interesting because it’ll tip the scales of roster% and overall points. Typically, in GPPs, I’d avoid anything in Coors because everyone else will go there. However, on a seven-game slate lacking offense — they are in play.

Baseball is a game of high variance, and today’s as good as any to try something new. Good luck!

 

Implied Run Totals (IRT)

 

  • ATL (4.52) @ PHI (3.98) – Atlanta is one of my favorite stack options today because they absolutely crush southpaws (.237 ISO and .378 wOBA in the last 30 days). However, Philly’s bats have been underwhelming for most of the season. I’m not opposed to stacking them, but only to gain leverage since Kyle Wright has been a solid pitcher. Instead, I’d rather grab them as one-offs or a mini three-person stack.
  • BOS (3.73) @ TOR (4.77) – The mound features two SPs with lots of success, although, Toronto is projecting much better. Boston is a no-go for stacking because Manoah has been so good at limiting base runners and hard contact. Due to the lack of stacking options, Toronto is in play — even against Pivetta.

 

  • MIN (4.5) @ CLE (4.5) – Minnesota is clearly a better offense than Cleveland but both are projecting for a 4.5 IRT. Furthermore, both have matchups against SPs that aren’t known for shutting down opponents. This puts both teams in play for stacking. Cleveland is so cheap we could smash in loads of pitching, and Minnesota can hit bombs in a hurry.
  • MIA (3.9) @ STL (3.6) – Stacking against Sandy Alcantara is not sound advice, so avoid the Cards. Additionally, very few lineups will have Pallante as their SP. So you’d gain next to no leverage, and the Marlins aren’t a great offense. This is a game to avoid unless you need one-offs.

 

  • CIN (3.74) @ CHC (4.26) – Both offenses are pretty lousy. So why stack either of them? Let’s walk from stacking unless you’re mass entering like 50 lineups. One-offs and pitchers only here.
  • LAD (6.78) @ COL (4.72) – The field will stack this game heavily. Be mindful of your build if you choose to build with parts of this game. Try to avoid WAY too much chalk when stacking.

 

  • CHW (3.19) @ LAA (4.31) – The Angels have Ohtani pitching, so the stack gets so much worse without him. Instead, they could be used as one-offs. However, the White Sox run into one of the best pitchers in the MLB. You’d undoubtedly gain a lot of leverage stacking them, but it would come with massive risk. Stray from making that decision; your bankroll will thank you.

 

Starting Pitchers

 

We’ve got a smaller slate, so the tiers are Green (safer with upside), Yellow (risky with upside), and Red (leverage play). As prefaced earlier, finding the correct pitching maybe not be exactly what’s needed to win today. Instead, we should see quite a few SP with similar point totals. The goal must be to try and pay as little as possible for as much.

 

GREEN Tier 

The Green Tier usually features pitchers from $11,000-9,000 (for DK). However, the SP salaries are a little less today. Instead, we’ve got two SPs to grab instead of the higher-priced one (Alcantara, Wright, and Pivetta). While that trio is electric, the focus must be on saving as much salary as possible and maintaining a high level of points.

  • Shohei Ohtani ($9.1K DK, $10.5K FD) will, unfortunately, draw a bunch of attention. Rightfully so, as he’s got a chance to strike out the most batters. Furthermore, it’s not just punchouts. The Angels have allowed Ohtani to pitch 90-100 pitches for some time now. He’s been an under-priced ace for a while, and we’ll keep smashing him in lineups.
  • Alek Manoah ($8.7K DK, $10.8K FD) doesn’t have quite the massive strikeout upside as Ohtani but comes with a similar discount. His value lies in the number of compiled innings plus the Ks. He draws a tougher matchup against Boston, but we’ve seen them fall on their face offensively this season. This game is in Toronto, and the BoSox will be without Duran and Vázquez tonight.

 

YELLOW Tier

We’ve got a couple of options with lots of risks but loads of upside. Therein lies some perfect choices for the slate since we must find ways to get past the field, even with limited options.

  • Hunter Greene ($8,1K DK, $9.1K FD) could break the slate with Ks. Remember, Ks are king and the easiest way to score points for pitchers. While Greene’s opponent, the Cubs, haven’t been striking out a lot lately (20.6% K-rate in last 30 days), they also haven’t hit the ball with much authority (.125 ISO). This would be my single-entry SP of choice for any GPPs.
  • Michael Kopech ($7.6K DK, $8.9K FD) hasn’t been very good lately. But that’s also why his salary is so depleted. Although, he’s still got the ability to strike out plenty in a short period, and the Angels strike out A LOT vs. RHP. No, like A LOT A LOT. In June, they are striking out 27.9% of the time. If he can navigate around Trout and Ohtani well enough, the rest of that lineup is quite alluring.

 

RED Tier

This is the land of GPP pitching options. In this tier, it’s two cheaper options to help you load up on pricey stacks or bats. In today’s case, we’ve got an ABSOLUTE wild card.

  • Germán Márquez ($5.5K DK, $6.9K FD) squares off against the top offense on the slate and inside Coors Field. Not precisely as safe of a play, huh? But that’s what makes it worth the risk. By getting Márquez in your build, you will gain SOOOO much leverage on the field. You’ll cruise into a leisurely day of winning if he shuts down the Dodgers (and essentially most of the field). However, we all know that’s not a likely outcome.

 

Hitting Stacks

 

Atlanta Braves (vs. Ranger SuárezSNEAKY STACK

  • Rarely is Atlanta a sneaky stack anymore – especially without Albies and Acuña in the lineup. However, the lineup comes fully loaded with plenty of options. Also, Ranger Suárez is struggling to get right-handed batters out, and it’s showing in his outcomes. Another reason to love stacking the Braves is they cover some challenging positions — catcher and third base. Lastly, you should be able to grab four bats and leave plenty of room or more.
  • Braves’ Core Stack Targets: Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud.

 

Cleveland Guardians (vs. Dylan Bundy) CHEAP STACK

  • The Guardians get a matchup against a meh SP and cost of practically nothing. Even better, their 4.5 IRT shows them projecting pretty well. Furthermore, Bundy is giving up 1.5 HR/9 and giving up a lot of quality contact to batters from both sides of the dish (.200 ISO vs. LHB, .190 ISO vs. RHB). Lastly, there are quite a few values in this lineup as well. So, plenty of combinations to make, but J-Ram better be in all of them.
  • Twins’ Core Stack Targets: José Ramírez, Andrés Giménez, and Franmil Reyes.

 

Los Angeles Dodgers(vs. Germán MárquezCHALKY STACK

  • With a 6.78 IRT total, everyone will flock to this stack. So, you’ll need to get a little different in the stack. For instance, Márquez has been putrid against right-handed bats, so toss someone like Chris Taylor into the stack.
  • Dodgers’ Core Stack Targets: Trea Turner, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, and Justin Turner.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.

 

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Dave Swan

Dave Swan is an avid Chicago Cubs fan that enjoys all aspects of fantasy baseball-especially DFS. He would trade his right arm for a GIF library of Greg Maddux pitches. Swan's baseball thoughts are available at @davithius.

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