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DFS Daily Breakdown – July 6

Dave Swan breaks down the DFS slate for Wednesday.

Happy Wednesday! Let’s start with a courtesy warning. The weather could be a little problematic and scramble up plenty of aspects, and several games show potential for delays and postponements. So, if you’re setting lineups early, you’ll need to check back in closer to lock time.

From a slate perspective, we’ve got a slew of viable high-end SP options but less in the middle. There is always plenty of cheap pitching, but it’ll come with many risks. On the other side, there is a bunch of offenses with higher implied run totals leading to less chalky plays. In summation, if we’re stacking, go small and stick to four players-not five. That way, you can spread your build between more games.

Baseball is a game of high variance, and today’s as good as any to try something new. Good luck!

 

Implied Run Totals (IRT)

 

Starting Pitchers

 

We’ve got an OK-sized slate, so the tiers are Green (high upside), Yellow (risky upside with matchups), and Red (salary savers). Lately, the mid-tier (Yellow) SPs have been the great value, but not so much today. The mid-tier SPs (Miles Mikolas, Josiah Gray, Corey Kluber) have difficult matchups, and we’ll avoid them.

 

GREEN Tier 

The Green Tier features pitchers from $11,000-9,000 (for DK). Interestingly enough, this is all four pitchers available in the price tier. Typically, I’ll limit it to fewer options, but all the SPs have decent matchups and can add similar numbers. What does this mean? Well, the roster% should be spread evenly between them.

  • Aaron Nola ($10.1K DK, $10.5K FD) draws a Nationals’ squad that’s crushing RHP lately (11.2% BB rate, 18% K-rate, and 121 wRC+). However, they’re not doing it with power (.139 ISO). As far as the safest option on the slate goes, Nola provides everything we need: lots of innings, lots of strikeouts, and limiting contact. Additionally, he could be even more appealing if the field decides to save salary at pitching and pass on him. Wait? An ace with less of the field on him? Perhaps.
  • Max Fried ($9.9K DK, $10.4K FD) is a notch below Nola. And, that’s not a bad thing. Like Nola, he pitches very deep into games. However, Fried trades strikeouts for weak contact, hence the slight down-tick in K/9. Still, he’s elite. We could see the field scared off because his opponents (St. Louis) love to mash southpaws (.256 ISO, .360 wOBA, and 137 wRC+). But this is Max Fried, who’s allowing a .090 ISO to right-handed bats while striking them out at nearly a 23% clip.

 

  • Cristian Javier ($9.3K DK, $9.7K FD) has been on a heater (14 IP, 1 BB, 27 Ks). WOW! And that’s partially what’s making him so appealing-the Ks! He doesn’t have the same number of innings, but he’s facing an offense full of inexperience and might have fixed his pesky walk problems. Lastly, of all the Green Tier pitchers, Javier seems the most likely to wind up in the most lineups.
  • Luis Severino ($9.1K DK, $9.5K FD) is in an exciting spot. He’s got everything we need and drawing a solid matchup. However, he’s got one flaw that could sink his ship-HRs! His 1.27 HR/9 is the second-most on the slate, only behind Josiah Gray. If he can keep the ball in the yard, the Pirates’ offense has a lot of swing-and-miss in their profiles.

 

YELLOW Tier

We’ve got a couple of options with lots of risks but loads of upside. Both SPs are paydown options from the Green Tier. If you’re looking to save on pitching and load up on bats while not giving up too much, these are the fellas for you.

  • Mitch White ($7.9K DK, $7.4K FD) gets to face the Rockies’ offense outside of Coors Field. Furthermore, he’s giving up 40% contact on the ground and striking out nearly a batter per inning. However, he comes with some warts. He hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches in a game, and this is by far his highest salary to date. Still, the other mid-priced SPs draw too difficult of matchups to trust.
  • Alex Cobb ($7.6K DK, $8.9K FD) doesn’t look like a good pitcher if you’re looking at surface stats (4.59 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). Except, his underlying metrics suggest the opposite. His 2.74 xFIP is the best on the slate, and when a batter puts a ball in play, there’s a 61.8% chance it’s on the infield. Now, he’s been very misfortunate outside of giving up a few too many walks. If you’re looking for a sneaky paydown option for a single-entry lineup, Cobb fits the bill.

 

RED Tier

This is the land of GPP pitching options. In this tier, it’s two cheaper options to help you load up on pricey stacks or bats. In today’s case, we’ve got an ABSOLUTE wild card. Consider both possibilities extremely volatile today.

  • Spenser Watkins ($5.7K DK, $6.3K FD) looks like an awful pitcher and could very well be. However, he’s been wildly effective in his previous two starts (11 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 Ks). Additionally, he’s drawing a Texas team with lots of free-swingers. It’s never a great feeling when you roster someone from the Red Tier, but saving $4-5K in salary never hurts.
  • Brayan Bello ($5K DK, $6K FD) has been spectacular in the minors. Does that mean it’ll translate into the big leagues? No, but spending very little of your salary to find out helps. Lastly, he squares off against Tampa Bay, striking out nearly 25% of the time against RHP in the last two weeks.

 

Hitting Stacks

 

Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Brayan BelloSNEAKY STACK

  • Point blank, we have no clue how effective Bello will be in his debut. Additionally, if he doesn’t go deep into the game, Boston’s bullpen is pretty lousy. Filling your stack with positions like SS and 2B with plenty of upsides is always lovely. Furthermore, the Rays project for a 4.24 IRT could help keep the roster% down on the stack.
  • Rays’ Core Stack Targets: Wander Franco, Ji-Man Choi, and Isaac Paredes.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates (vs. Luis Severino) LEVERAGE STACK

  • Severino is a top-end pitching option but can get penalized by the longball. So, things could go two ways: Severino shoves and completely shuts down the Pirates, or the Pirates’ left-handed bats grab hold of mistakes over the plate. Furthermore, in the last 14 days, the Pirates hold the fourth-highest ISO (.215) vs. RHP. Given the cheap salaries, there is a world of safe pitching you could add to the stack.
  • Pirates’ Core Stack Targets: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski.

 

Houston Astros (vs. Brad KellerCHALKY STACK

  • The Astros project for a massive day, as shown by the 5.43 IRT. Furthermore, there is no lack of options due to the loaded lineup. Although, isn’t Brad Keller a master of giving up weak contact? Somewhat, but he also doesn’t strike anyone out, and balls in play tend to translate into cheap HRs at Minute Maid Park. The Astros bats will end up in a bunch of lineups, so plan accordingly and maybe stray from paying up for pitching.
  • Astros’ Core Stack Targets: Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman.

 

Value Hitters

 

Here are some of the best value hitters not mentioned above. Also, the value hitters are players under $3500 on DK and under $3300 on FD—just a step below my cash players. Use these players to smash into your lineup when you need to save some salary.

 

 

Design by J.R. Caines (@JRCainesDesign on Twitter and @caines_design on Instagram)

Dave Swan

Dave Swan is an avid Chicago Cubs fan that enjoys all aspects of fantasy baseball-especially DFS. He would trade his right arm for a GIF library of Greg Maddux pitches. Swan's baseball thoughts are available at @davithius.

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