Oh Drew Smyly. I really want to love you again. I had you near #20 earlier in the season after your baller April and it just hasn’t gone your way since. But now you’ve looked pretty in your last three starts including yesterday’s brilliant 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks outing and I want to believe. The problem here is that the last three opponents he’s had have been as bad as they come in the AL: Oakland/NYY/Royals. He does get the padres in two starts ahead, but he has to first go against the Jays and I’m not sold enough that I’d be tossing him out there blindly. Sure, the Jays have been striking out like whoa in Houston and Smyly could rack up a decent amount, but that’s not enough. Then there’s Texas, Houston, Boston, Baltimore after…it’s not a great outlook. I want to be wrong and watch Smyly steamroll opponents regardless of their offense, but I don’t think this is a sound ROS investment right now. Womp womp.
Let’s see what every other SP did yesterday:
Ian Kennedy – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 4 BBs, 9 Ks. So Kennedy has a 10.87 K/9 and a 2.90 BB/9 over his last 9 starts. He also has a 3.81 ERA and 4.48 FIP with a HR/FB rate of 17.9%, but he’s always had HR issues. It’s a better coin flip than most – I know that doesn’t make sense but it might still make sense – when you’re gunning for a solid start with strikeouts, and in 12 teamers you don’t have much of a choice but to keep sending him out there. You’ll get burned a bit, but you’ll make it out of the house alive.
Brandon Finnegan – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. I’m more impressed that Finnegan had zero walks than I am with the shutout innings. I don’t think he’s turned a corner despite back to back goose eggs in the ER column, and he’s still too risky moving forward.
Ryan Vogelsong – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. I feel bad for the owner who sees this line and chases a repeat from Vogelsong. It just isn’t going to happen.
J.A. Happ – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Great stuff Happ as he keeps rolling like a pro. He probably deserves a solid bump on Monday.
Mike Fiers – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Super solid from Fiers against the Jays, who just can’t seem to stop striking out. Not a fan of Fiers overall though, as his Fastball has a lost a ton of movement and is still coming in under 90 mph. Yikes.
Tyrell Jenkins – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. Remember Jenkins is a Cup of Schmo, so don’t go nutty for that 1 ER.
Matt Moore – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 6 BBs, 7 Ks. It was fun watching Moore on the hill in yesterday’s live stream of the Phillies/Giants game – make sure to tune in next time! – and he took a little bit of time to get settled in with his Fastball and Curveball during the first inning before turning on the Jets and being disappointed on a Sunday. I mean, turning on the jets and speeding through the next five innings. The walks are stupid and might not go away, but all in all it was a good play if you ran with him yesterday.
Bartolo Colon – 6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. This looks like a Colon start alright. It’s a proper Grave Mistake and you should be happy with that. He’s not nearly as dependable this year as he has been.
Kenta Maeda – 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Solid. Very very solid…outside of that one last out we needed you to get to complete the dumb QS stat. But whatever.
Vince Velasquez – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Velasquez was the second of the two pitchers we watched on yesterday’s live stream of the Phillies/Giants game, and he eventually left with a blister on his throwing hand. Stupid pain getting in the way of making things happen. Anyway, Velasquez didn’t look too dominant on the hill in this outing, but he had the stuff to get through it will minimal damage. Still don’t like him like the other mega upside young fellas, but given how weak some names are in the 50s/60s, VV isn’t going to shift around much unless this blister thing is a real issue.
Drew Pomeranz – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 6 BBs, 6 Ks. 6 Ks? Sure. 2 ER in six innings? Good. 4 Hits? Solid. Six Walks?! Duuuuude we were almost in the clear. Keep rolling with Pom.
Nathan Eovaldi – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. If it weren’t for a Jay Bruce longball, this would have been a super solid outing from Eovalid. But nope, he just had to give up that long ball.
A.J. Griffin – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Nope. Still don’t trust AJ yet.
Jose Quintana – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. So it’s a Quality Start and a dub, but everything else is just so boring. Whatever I’ll take it after throwing him out there against the Tigers.
Ariel Miranda – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I was expecting to not like Miranda at all, but he wasn’t nearly as Cup of Schmo as I expected. Not anything close to the excitement of Skaggs/Bundy/etc. but there may be some value here for deeper leagues and the occasional stream. Too bad he might not stick around with Taijuan Walker returning this weekend as Wade LeBlanc sticks in the rotation. I’ll try to talk to some people and make this happen.
Hector Santiago – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. Santiago is now a Twin and it’s going just about how well you’d expect. I thought he was playing for the Santiagos? Ah, you listened to the Podcast too!
Ricky Nolasco – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. At least he gave the Angels an extra inning more than Santiago?
Tyler Chatwood – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. Chatwood has limited upside, pitches his home games at Coors Field, and doesn’t deserve a spot on your team. This should be the blurb for every Colorado starter not named Gray and maybe even Gray.
Mike Clevinger – 4.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks. Four walks isn’t the Clevinger that we know he can be, and I can see him actually being a sleeper start for 2017 and beyond. If you’re unfamiliar with the kid, I suggest checking out the GIF Breakdown I did analyzing his MLB debut. He’s taken over Danny Salazar’s spot as the flamethrower was sent to the DL and I’m curious if he can develop in front of our eyes in his next few starts.
Wade Miley – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. Wow what a trade, such happiness.
Jesse Hahn – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Look at Jesse’s ERA, blasting off at the speed of light.
Mike Leake – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Man this is dumb. He was looking great for a 10 game stretch and now has been a bum for three straight. Guess you just have to move on. Blegh.
Jordan Zimmermann – 1.2 IP, 6 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Ohhhhh boy. You guys know my rule about not starting guys on their first day back from extended DL trips unless they are studs, and let’s be honest. JZ is not a stud. This happens somewhat frequently and not every pitcher falls apart so don’t be super knee-jerk with this outing, though I can’t say I’m too high on Zima in the first place. There’s a reason you haven’t heard that reference in a while…
Today’s Streamers
Ervin Santana vs. Tampa Bay Rays – He’s been on a good roll and while I really don’t like him overall, there isn’t a better option. :-/
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Matt Boyd vs Chicago White Sox – I like the way his Changeup is looking these days and I’m betting on him to continue his ride against the ChiSox.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Zach Eflin vs. San Diego Padres – You may be calling me crazy after his last two starts, but those weren’t streamable Eflin outings. This one is and that changes things y’all. So Jake Thompson is getting a crack at the majors on Saturday, which means Eflin gets pushed a day to Monday. If you need a Sunday stream, the best option is most likely Archie Bradley against the Brewers, though be mindful of his floor.
Game of the Day
Justin Verlander vs. Noah Syndergaard – It’s two of my lovers meeting on the hill. How could I not be excited?