Chris Reddacked

Nick Pollack reviews every single starting pitcher's performances from Tuesday's games.

The wild debut season of Chris Paddack continued today via 4.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks, and owners are starting to get nervous. Paddack is getting hit with some of that regression – finally – as his .375 BABIP allowed here was the highest of the year, bringing the season mark to .220. There’s still room to go. Oh, and another pair of longballs isn’t doing him any favors as he’s now allowed five in two games after allowing four total across his first nine starts. Both longballs can on fastballs in the upper third of the zone, though neither were jammed effectively, allowing Kingery and Bruce to extend and exterminate. Meanwhile, the worries of Paddack’s split-changeup not being consistent are getting a bit confirmed. 3/30 whiffs here (6/30 CSW) as the pitch was ultra hittable is not what you want and 0/8 on curveball whiffs is not where we want the deuce to be. This may sound like the blurb of death for Paddack, but honestly, these last two starts happen all the time. Now the question is if Paddack can adjust and get back on track as we expected him to falter at some point. I think he can, at least he’s displayed what his floor looks like when that changeup isn’t saving him and his fastball isn’t pristine. If you’re selling, I’d wait until his next start against the Giants first, or at least see if prospective owners want that outing to sweeten the pot.

Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:

Pablo Lopez6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. You see this and think you’re missing out on all the fun. Man, I should have bought into PabLo, he was so close to breaking out and I just couldn’t see past the blowups! Don’t be like that. If you’ve been reading the roundups, you understand PabLo’s repertoire: 93/94 mph heater, good changeup that needs to get whiffs, and a questionable curveball that has been floated a lot and isn’t getting confident strikes. I’ve been waiting for it all to come together and…this start isn’t it. Sorry. Just 3/25 CSW on his changeup is terrible and his curveball, while better, is not the pitch we need it to be. His fastball command was better than we’ve seen, though, that was a major positive. This just isn’t the start that should get people on board like we’ve seen before. I really wish it was. I really do.

Hyun-Jin Ryu7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I’m imagining Ryu fighting off every injury that is coming his way, like Neo dodging bullets in a lobby. I can cartwheel and pick up guns and do anything I want because I get it now. The man can’t be stopped.

Steven Brault4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks. I know he’s done well over his last four outings, but please, please don’t put faith in Steve. I don’t want you going through a Brault-rock phase.

Luis Castillo6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. I don’t like the walks – Mild Shock – but the 34% CSW and 97 mph heater is lovely.

Glenn Sparkman5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. There’s a reason Glenn sounds like a cheap clone of Marvel. What’s he do? He…um…shoots sparks out n stuff. SPARKMAN IT IS!

Shane Bieber7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Some are calling for massive regression on Bieber, I think that’s the product of Bieber being a Cherry Bomb and less so of a mediocre pitcher getting lucky. He’s armed with two great breaking pitches and his volatility is rooted in his fastball’s ability to earn strikes early in counts. When he’s able to get ahead without batters lacing his fastball, he dominates. When the pitch leaks over and batters are aggressive, he falters. The Twins didn’t take advantage, Bieber cruised. I believe with more time, Bieber will continue to cruise plenty more than blow up. There you go, don’t sell Bieber for 80 cents on the dollar.

Ryan Carpenter7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. This is something else. Don’t trust this, the Carpenter’s ratios will rise again. 

Taylor Clarke5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. 18/96 CSW? Just eight whiffs? Yeah no. Clarke kent be the man you rely on. You just can’t let you do that to yourself.

Frankie Montas6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. Yeah, we’ll take this after his last outing, though I’m a little sad to see just four whiffs. Just 1/25 on your slide piece? Montas, Frankie, BUDDY. Whatever, keep on rolling with the fella. Guy. Friend.

Clayton Richard4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. His mechanics are worse than the guys down the road charging $600 for an oil change and it produces ghastly outings like this. Never trust the wrong Clayton. Never.

Eduardo Rodriguez5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Leave it to the Royals to give a pitcher confidence again in his strikeouts as The Uni handed you a solid Philly. 35/89 CSW is lovely, though just 3/20 whiffs on changeups surprises me. Good to see the rest of the repertoire step up. I’d start Eduardo everywhere save for the toughest matchups.

Kyle Hendricks7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Hendricks keeps cruising, now fanning at least 7 in five of his last six starts. Kinda nuts to see it, and what’s even crazier is that his four-seamer – a pitch that’s well under 90 mph – suddenly has a 13% swinging-strike rate as a pitch. Wild.

Madison Bumgarner6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. A PQS with five Ks against the Mets? Meh, sure. Still not loving Bumgarner as anything more than your #3 SP (#4 if you got some of the youngin’s), but that’s fine with me and you’ll throw him out there every time.

Dylan Bundy5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It looked like typical Bundy early with a lead-off blast to Choo to start his evening, and it wasn’t far from the truth as the final line is a bit disappointing. I meant to have Bundy on The List on Monday and I’m a little upset he was overlooked, but it’ll be a spot in the 80s, nothing crazy. There’s a chance he puts together an impressive stretch through the summer.

Genesis Cabrera4.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 0 Ks. Genesis threw 95 pitches in yesterday’s game and did not record a single whiff. That’s absurd. Crazy. Dumb. WHAT. I’m shocked considering I think he has good stuff with 96/97 heat and a pair of developing secondary pitches, but here we are. 18 called strikes got him through this in some respect, but man-oh-man, that’s just so weird to see. Clearly not ready for your 12-teamers.

Jerad Eickhoff6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks. I think we’ll collectively take this from Eickhoff, though I wonder if 0/29 whiffs on four-seamers is something we should still be worried about. This was the Poppa Pads n all. Arizona is next and I think you’re okay there.

Wade Miley5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. We’ve been giving praise to Miley recently and six strikeouts in five frames is right in line with his recent performances. Sure, the 3 ER are not ideal, but I’ll take this overall. He’ll be helping you in 12-teamers through the year.

Noah Syndergaard6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. Hey, guess what, Syndergaard still can’t find his slider. And it’s torture because it really should be back by now, but he can’t find the velocity for it and he’s still just going changeup heavy in the meantime. It’s the story of his season and without the pitch, he’s just not going to have the nullifier for his hittable heater. I’m not kidding, 4/103 sliders here with 28 changeups instead. 11/28 CSW on those slow balls, but still. He needs that slide piece back.

Chase Anderson4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. This was the first stumble from Chase this season as he faced the Marlins and I was surprised he staved it off this long. There are better things to…run after.

Griffin Canning6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. On one hand you have 34% CSW and 18 whiffs as his slider did some legit work. On the other, his curveball was hung a bit and his fastball was a little too hittable at times. Still, I believe in Canning through the year, especially when you consider how close he is to turning into a Top 25 asset with his stuff. This kid is legit.

Andrew Moore4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. Roger Andrew made a spot start and gets the dreaded Cup of Schmo label. Is this because you’re sipping out of your Cup of Schmo mug today? No, but it is a lovely mug. Siiiiip. It’s a 91 mph heater with a decent changeup and that’s about it. Let’s move on.

Masahiro Tanaka6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Noooooo. You’ve probably seen the “ball” down the middle already, but even with that pitch, it’s not an excuse for Tanaka to allow two longballs and to record just 23/85 CSW (fine, 24/85 CSW). His splitter is not what it used to be, getting hung inside the zone too frequently. Keep rolling with him, just hope his splitty comes back.

Max Fried4.0 IP, 5 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Fried, no. The Pirates are not this good and you’re supposed to be a lot better than this. The new whiff-heavy slider went 0/7 on whiffs, his fastball was way too hittable, and his curveball went back-and-forth between great and poor. Bleeeeegh. I guess I have to lower you in the ranks, but I really do believe that he’s close to performing better than we’ve already seen in the second half of the season as that slider becomes a force in his repertoire.

Jeff Hoffman6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. You look at this start and see everything. The strikeout potential, the poor ERA, the WHIP you can deal with. Is that the life you want to settle for?

Devin Smeltzer6.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. Bleeeeeegh. It’s the man I thought we’d see a decent amount, but not the man I expected against the Indians. Streaming Record: 41-25. He could be around again over the weekend for the Tigers and I think you’re still okay starting him there. Stupid Lindor.

Stephen Strasburg5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 6 Ks. It was a first inning of pain as two walks, a HBP, and three walks led to 4 ER in the books. Stras cruised after that as we all expected, but you can’t erase the past. Unless you kill Bran, but that’s another story.

Reynaldo Lopez4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. That’s 19 ER in his last three starts. Yep. Don’t touch ReyLo right now.

Blake Snell4.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Wait. No. Snell allowed a grand slam in the fifth and was quickly sprung from the game at 95 pitches and you’d think this was a disaster. It was…while Snell also had 25 whiffs, good for a Gallows Pole. The skill set is still there, of course.

Drew Smyly3.1 IP, 7 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Let’s turn that frown upside down! Turns into a Smyly. NO! PUT IT BACK! PUT IT BACK!

 

Today’s Streamer

 

For those unaware, I’m forced to make my Streamer picks under the condition of sub 20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.

 

Dakota Hudson vs. Cincinnati Reds – There aren’t many streaming options here, so I’ll go with Hudson pulling off his sinkerball ways against the Reds offense away from GABP. Also stoked for Jimmy Nelson to finally return.

 

Tomorrow’s Streamer

 

Tyler Mahle vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Not much of a choice here as there are zero good strong matchups to choose otherwise. I’m not joking, zero. Ariel JuradoIn Arlington? Nope.

 

Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer

 

Erik Fedde vs. San Diego Padres – I don’t trust the Feddes but the options are thin and the Padres strikeout more than anyone out there.

 

Game of the Day 

 

Jimmy Nelson vs. Miami Marlins – HE’S BACK. FINALLY.

 

(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)

Nick Pollack

Founder of Pitcher List. Creator of CSW, The List, and SP Roundup. Worked with MSG, FanGraphs, CBS Sports, and Washington Post. Former pitching coach and Brandeis alum. Wants every pitcher to be dope.

  • Mike says:

    Nick,

    Chase Anderson went against the Marlins, not the Braves.

  • robert danzig says:

    if Martin Perez struggles today.. time to unload? wondering how much leash I give him while rostered on my bench in a 12 teamer

  • Fred says:

    I was pretty convinced by Dan’s Going Deep on Bieber yesterday, but it sounds like you have faith in him. Would you do Bieber and Austin Riley for Walker Buehler in a dynasty league?

  • MookieBestt says:

    Ryu over his last 162 innings (just combining all innings last season and this season): 160 Ks (8.89 K/9), 20 BBs (1.11 BB/9), 1.67 ERA, 0.90 WHIP. To me, he’s a top 5 starter as long as he’s healthy.

  • Karl says:

    Okay, off the top of my head this feels like the 4th or 5th time the Pirates have hit somebody hard in the last week or so where we’ve said “Come on! It’s the Pirates!” Maybe time we stop looking at them like an easy match-up?

    • theKraken says:

      Don’t worry about a few games of production. Heck, the Marlins scored how many runs yesterday? Its the personnel that matters and PIT doesn’t have much.

    • Nick Pollack says:

      Maybe I’d consider that if I felt Fried pitched to a better line in this game…but that wasn’t case.

      I’ll keep an eye out. Who knows, maybe Fast comes back and starts shouting “The Pirates are a Top 10 offense!” again.

    • Doug says:

      They do this ~ once a year, usually around the trade deadline making fans think they’ve got something worth keeping together while the Front Office knows the truth. I’m just happy for Bucs fans that it’s happening earlier this season, lol

  • TJ says:

    Eflin is sitting on waivers in my league. Would you drop Eickhoff, Matz or Strahm for him? League is K-heavy

    • Doug says:

      Eflin’s a better Toby than Matz w/a better team and pen behind him, IMO, and Eickhoff and Strahm have higher ceilings but are higher-risk options as well.

  • J says:

    A couple notes on Hendricks: first, his fastball velocity is at the highest it’s been since his 2016 season, which seems pretty great. He was touching 90 at times yesterday. Second, he seems to have found something with his curveball, which is making him much more effective the third time through the order. The usage is up a ton in his last several starts, and he had 2 strikeouts on curves yesterday. That may not seem like a big deal, but he had 2 all year last year, 0 in 2017, and 3 in 2016. His peripherals are actually better the 3rd time through the order this year than the 2nd time.

    All this to say that there are a lot of reasons to feel confident in Hendricks right now.

  • CJ says:

    Oooh Jimmy Nelson, shiny

  • Tommy says:

    Bit of bad luck for Canning in this one. It was first and second with one out and Khris Davis hit a ball to center that was catchable but Trout lost it in the lights which allowed a run to score. Next batter hit a sac fly that should’ve been the 3rd out. No excuse for the long ball but the line looks a lot better with only 2 ER.

  • Perfect Game says:

    I love Ryu. But, he’s already matched last years’ IP and the last time he’s thrown at least a 120 IP was a few years ago. Was concerned not only about the injury risk, but if he will wear down from the increased workload or his workload will be restricted as the season progresses. So, I traded him and a bench bat for DeGrom. Will miss those ratios though.

  • Immaculate Inning says:

    Canning’s 4.27 FIP, 4.30 xFIP and 3.82 SIERRA with a 47% FB rate doesn’t appeal. Why are you so high on him this year?

  • Ryan DC says:

    I was so excited for my Snell/Stras/Castillo/Fried bonanza, and after about 1 inning in each game the joy had turned to ashes in my mouth. Here’s hoping the second half of their two-start week goes better!

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