(Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire)
With Chris Archer going 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 9 Ks last night against the Cubs, there’s just one more start in the books (against the Reds, you should be safe to start him) and I think I’m ready to talk about Archer for 2019. Don’t do it. Yay! That easy. If he falls well out of the Top 40 arms, sure I’m cool taking the chance, but we’ve been “taking the chance” for three years and it’s been three straight years of a 4.00+ ERA, meh and sometimes harmful WHIP rates (1.38 this year!), and no real sign that it’s going to get better. Now, he did kill it last night against the Cubs for 36/91 CSW with a dope slider and even 5/16 whiffs on his changeup, but it’s not enough for me. His fastball is still sitting lower than in his prime, I’m not buying that changeup usage (highest since fourth highest of the season!) as it’s been a feel pitch for as long as I can remember. What’s sparking all of this is the early series of mocks that have him as the 126th overall pick ADP wise…one pick higher than Miles Mikolas. Nope. Nope nope nope. I’ll obviously talk more about it over the off-season, but I’d be shocked if Archer found his way to my team next year. His path to upside is harder than people realize.
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
Chad Bettis – 2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Bettis was used as a spot starter here and we didn’t expect him to have any legit success here. So, yeah.
Yovani Gallardo – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. YoGa, I’m amazed you worked. Seriously, all those poses you’ve made in the past really looked bad.
Gabriel Moya – 1.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 Hits, 1 BBs, 0 Ks. FALSE START. There’s nothing exciting here. Let’s move on.
Eric Skoglund – 2.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 1 Ks. Oh hey, it’s Skoglund. The man that will never be as successful as I want him to be with a last name like that. It’s too bad.
Noah Syndergaard – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. I had some fears about Thor facing the Braves and he actually battled an illness to make this start, which may explain his slightly lower velocity at times. 25 fouls vs 23 CSW is far from ideal Thor, but we’ll definitely take this. He might get that last start of the season for the Mets against the Marlins, and hopefully he’ll put a strong cap on the season.
Robbie Erlin – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. This is as Blame it on the Giants as you’ll ever see.
Josh James – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. JJ is Reddickulous. Well, three Ks leave a little to be desired, but he earned 15 outs in just 65 pitches and it’s hard for me not to consider him as a sleeper for 2019. Please just get a rotation spot…He may get the final start of the regular season for the Astros against the Orioles over the weekend and that’s a must-start.
Matt Koch – 4.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 2 Ks. I’m still upset that it’s pronounced Kah-tch, which means I can’t make a good joke. But if I pronounce it Coke, then I have a joke but I’ll get yelled at for the wrong pronunciation. It’s a Koch 22.
Max Scherzer – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace. He earned his 300th K here and everyone rejoiced. Enjoy the Gallows pole at 22 whiffs + 37/100 CSW. Daaaang.
Matt Shoemaker – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks. I thought you could do well, Shoemaker, NOT BE SUPER DOPE. They limited him to just 75 pitches here, and he was feeling his splitter with 10/29 whiffs. His slider was super meh, though, and while it was nice if you took the chance, I’d only consider in the deepest of 12-teamers for 2019 and sit him out if happens to sneak in some time over the weekend (unlikely).
Spencer Turnbull – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Color me surprised, I didn’t think Turnbull had it in him. Nine whiffs on 26 high four-seamers is something I can get behind, the rest of his stuff…not so much. I’d be surprised if Turnbull became a legit asset in 2019.
Trevor Bauer – 4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. We knew this one would be short – sorry Carlos Carrasco owners that you didn’t get a proper start from him in relief – and Bauer was meh. A 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 4 Ks? That’s not gonna cut it.
Walker Buehler – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Yep, that’s the dopeness we expect from Buehler day-in and day-out. There’s a part of me that’s hesitant to buy in for 2019 given #Dodgeritis and how he still under 150 innings across both the minors and majors, but it’s so hard not to believe what he’s doing. It all looks good any way you cut it (okay fine, a .258 BABIP is going to up, but it’s still a 3.19 SIERA!) and given how 180 is new 200 n all, I think I’m still sticking Buehler Top 20 and close to #15 entering next year. It’s really hard to argue against it among the rest of the SP options.
Luis Severino – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. Solid stuff from Severino, earning 15 whiffs in 97 pitches. I’ll take that from Sevy, though he’s still struggling a little with his slide piece and changeup (6/44 whiffs between them). He isn’t quite fixed yet.
Chris Stratton – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks. Stratton got a chance to get revenge on the Padres and…he kinda did? 2 ER and six Ks is cool, but man those 11 baserunners are harsh. Fortunately we can all drop him now and forget any of this ever happened.
Touki Toussaint – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 5 BBs, 6 Ks. It’s not super sexy – that WHIP is a little blegh – but I’ll take this overall. Streaming Record: 101-50. I wonder if those walks will be an issue in 2019. I think some will be proclaiming him as a breakout candidate and a strong sleeper for drafts, though I have my hesitations with his questionable fastball command and inconsistent splitter. Curveball is dope, though. He could close out the season for the Braves against the Phils on Sunday and that’s a go-go-go…if he gets it. I’m hoping the Braves retool the rotation a little, making Touki snipe that final game.
Jeff Brigham – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks. What’s his name? Brigham. No, I’m pretty sure that’s not the joke. Isn’t he the joke? Well that, too. I guess. This is a terrible blurb. It sure is, Bob.
Jacob Faria – 2.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I wonder if Faria is a post-hype sleeper for AL-Only leagues next year. I mean, he sure isn’t helpful now, but if the Rays stretch him out again prior to next season, there’s still upside in the tank n all. A lost season for Faria but don’t count him out for the future yet.
Sam Gaviglio – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I had no faith in Gaviglio and he reciprocated with confirmed my beliefs. What a guy.
Gio Gonzalez – 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Blegh. There’s the Gio we all came to know and hate when he donned a Nationals uniform. The Cardinals are no joke, y’all.
Matt Harvey – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. This wasn’t so bad as the WHIP is fine and six Ks are cool. Just one extra ER makes this a bit of a Dusty Donut. Meh, I wonder where he lands in the off-season. I’ll say Rangers because why not.
Mike Montgomery – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 3 Ks. In the end, Monty gave us a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP with three Ks. I prefer losing in three-card Monty to this.
James Shields – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks. At least Jimmy Bucklers gave you seven strikeouts…? Sorry, just trying to find a way to stop my fantasy nephew toddler from crying about Shields’ start. I’m not your nephew. Oh right, you just haven’t found an apartment yet BUT WHINE ABOUT IT EVERY DAY. How could you be so mean at a time like this? WHY DID YOU START SHIELDS?! I DON’T KNOW.
Brett Anderson – 2.1 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. Yep, that’s what happens Larry. That’s what happens when you start Anderson against any decent offense. Yes, the Mariners are a decent offense.
Austin Gomber – 3.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. The allure of Gomber is fading fast and while six Ks are cool n all, this hurts. A lot. That’s most likely it for Gomber, and I will not be drafting him anywhere in 2019.
Mike Leake – 1.1 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Bleeeeeegh. Leake got the A’s and bad things happen. Scary things. Things I don’t want to talk about.
Vince Velasquez – 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Velasquez hasn’t been able to handle the NL Easy, there was no chance he could handle Coors.
Eric Lauer vs. San Francisco Giants – The Giants are terrible, and Lauer could make this work. Possibly. Cody Reed vs. Kansas City Royals – Lauer was pushed back for Luis Perdomo, so I’ll chase the upside of Reed today against the Royals.
Antonio Senzatela vs. Philadelphia Phillies – Just eight games on Thursday and the options are terrible, so I’ll go with Senz-A as he gets the Phils. Blegh. Don’t do it.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Lucas Giolito vs. Minnesota Twins – I thought I’d be safe to go with Jose Urena against the Mets, but he’s done too well and now sits comfortably above the 20% threshold. That leaves Giolito, who hasn’t been too hot, but has had a tough schedule and gets the Rosario-less Twins. Don’t love it, but there isn’t any better.
Game of the Day
Nick Pivetta vs. German Marquez – Who doesn’t want to see Marquez go off? There’s a chance Pivetta does the same as well, so this could be fun.
Between : Boyd / E Jack / Ororizzi / Nova / Fillmyer / Stripling / Reed, is Reed still the guy? Also should I pick up another one of these guys or wait for better options later in the week?
No, Boyd is the guy.
Nick. Love your stuff. Read it every day. In a keeper league.. Any guy outside of the top 40 arms that you’d invest in now that you think will be a top 30-40 arm next season?
It’s a bit too early to tell, honestly.
Josh James is a solid pick if he gets a rotation spot in Houston. Yu Darvish may be out on your wire. Eduardo Rodriguez could come at a discount. Nathan Eovaldi as well.
Haven’t done work on the Top 100 just yet, so I’ll have a better idea come October 8th.
I am struggling between streaming today Cody Reed against Kansas City or Ross Stripling against the Diamondbacks. On the surface, Stripling only pitched 3.1 innings his last time out on September 21 against San Diego. However, he actually hit 76 pitches. Logic says he will be stretched out for more for today’s game. Buuuut … Stripling only had 71 pitches on Sept 16 against St Louis. Pitcher List is shading Stripling… is there something obvious I am missing? For example, maybe the Dodgers are keeping his innings short in preparation for transitioning to relief in the play offs – but I cannot find that anywhere.
We’re shading Stripling?
It’s more that #Dodgeritis is a thing and it’s super annoying and frustrating.
Honestly, your guess is as good as mine. The Dodgers seem content on throwing Stripling for just four frames, but I have to imagine that he’ll continue going if he’s cruising by then.
Reed has a little lower floor, though there’s believability in his recent surge. It’s a close call.
Sorry your not shading Stripling in the sense that he is a bad man … just not actively listing him as a streamer today in Pitcher List articles. Thanks for your thoughts.
Ahhh, that’s because he’s owned in over 20% of leagues :)
Hey Nick. How confident are you Touki gets that Sunday start? I could really use it but have only seen speculation at that this point that he’s actually going to get it. You sounded kind of confident in your write up so I just wanted to follow up. Thanks!
Thanks for catching that! I updated it as it came across way too confidently.
I’d say about a 30% chance. It’s a six-man now so technically he’d be starting on Monday (ha), but the Braves are tinkering the rotation for the playoffs, which may mean they need Touki to start on Sunday instead.
If he gets it, I’m so down against the Phils.
Got it, thanks!
What about Gausman. Think he gets a start and would you run him out @ Phil. There’s a chance he goes up against Nola.
I’d start Gausman there.
Matt Koch’s name is pronounced “cook”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D2_aqCchk4
I knew that.
…I think. Ah right, I had the “Too many Kochs” if you own one bit.
Kinda makes the blurb funny if you think I’m purposefully getting it wrong. Yeah, that was totally what I was doing.
An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto
a friend who had been doing a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me dinner because I found it for him…
lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!!
But yeah, thanks for spending time to discuss this subject here
on your web site.
creditos con asnef; Monte,