Bets of the Day – May 3rd

Kyle Stanzel highlights Monday's best bets around baseball.

We have a number of interesting pitching matchups in this Monday’s all-night slate that I will be staying up way past my bedtime to watch. As such, we are looking at the totals for tonight’s bets, including a total prop for a game that involves the debut of one of the baseball’s more heralded prospects:

 

Indians @ Royals Total Runs First 5 Innings O/U 4.5

 

Sunday night brought the pleasantly surprising news that the Royals were calling up top prospect LHP Daniel Lynch to start against the Indians on Monday.  If you are unfamiliar with Lynch, he is rated by MLB.com as the #24 prospect in baseball and #2 Royals prospect behind Bobby Witt Jr. At 6’6″, Lynch is a towering lefty that features a powerful high-90’s fastball and biting slider among his four-pitch mix. Although he hasn’t pitched above High-A, Lynch has drawn rave reviews at Kansas City’s alternate site and is exactly the type of high-ceiling arm that gets us excited here at Pitcher List. The 24-year old gets a nice debut matchup against a Cleveland team that is bottom third in baseball against LHP (.292 wOBA, .87 wRC+).

Aaron Civale has had an interesting start to the season, as his K-rate is down fairly significantly but he has done an excellent job of limiting hard contact. I believe in Civale’s success and think that he will be able to develop a strikeout pitch as he progresses this season. Kansas City has proven to be a moderately dangerous lineup this year, but I am not as sold on their success as Civale’s. I like the under here as long as Lynch is in the game, which should only be four or five innings, which is why I am recommending the under on the first five innings instead of the entire game.

Pick: UNDER 4.5 (-106 DK, -128 FD)

 

Blue Jays @ Athletics Total Runs O/U 8.5

 

The Toronto Blue Jays offense is finally waking up and they have been absolutely on fire over the last week (.397 wOBA, 161 wRC+). The surging Blue Jays scored 26 runs over the weekend as the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Marcus Semien have been seeing the ball extremely well. While Frankie Montas is a much better pitcher than his 6.20 ERA would suggest, this is not the best matchup for him to bounce back from the nine ER he has allowed over his last two starts.

After looking like the ace of the Toronto staff in his first three starts, Steven Matz has come crashing back down to Earth in his last two starts in which he also allowed nine ER. Oakland features a number of strong RH bats at the top of its lineup in Mark Canha, Ramón Laureano, and Matt Chapman that will make life tough on Matz. These are two of the top offenses in the American League and I think the sportsbooks are valuing Montas and Matz a little too much here.

Pick: OVER 8.5 (-106 DK, -104 FD)

 

Pirates @ Padres Total Runs O/U 8.5

 

Fellow Pitcher List writer Jai Correa went in-depth on the changes Tyler Anderson has made in turning himself into a successful pitcher for the Pirates this season and you should definitely check it out here. This is not the mediocre Tyler Anderson that got consistently beat up with the Rockies and the Giants. His ratios are by far the best of his career and the underlying numbers support his 3.38 ERA (3.65 xFIP). Anderson gets a seemingly potent Padres lineup that has actually struggled to hit LHP a month into 2021 (.298 wOBA, .89 wRC+).

For me, it doesn’t matter who is starting for the Padres tonight. At one point it looked like this could be Dinelson Lamet, but right now it looks like Miguel Diaz will get the nod. Fine by me. The Pirates’ offense is struggling and there just really aren’t any hitters in the lineup that strike fear into opposing pitchers. After getting shut out by Carlos Martínez and Alex Reyes in Pittsburgh, the team had to fly out to San Diego after four straight losses and will try to get themselves right for a 10:10 PM first pitch. I like this game to be a low-scoring affair and slide in well under the 8.5 total.

Pick: UNDER 8.5 (-110 DK, -120 FD)

 

Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 13-13-0

Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): +$381.82

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

Kyle Stanzel

New Jersey-born and North Carolina-bound, Kyle is as die-hard a Pittsburgh Pirates fan as there is, attending the last ever game at Three Rivers Stadium and the first ever game at PNC Park. Follow him on Twitter @style_kanzel

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