I was in Austin, Texas for my cousin’s bachelor party this past weekend, and it did not even come even close to the madness that ensued in the baseball world. We had it all. From brawls to no-hitters, walk-offs, emotional returns, and injuries, this weekend was insane. Also, I’m lying about the bachelor party. I just can’t get into it on here because my Grandma reads this.
Angels/White Sox F5 over 4.5 runs (-110)
If we were transported back to 2019, there’s no way we would be looking at a total this high with Noah Syndergaard and Lucas Giolito on the mound. Here we are three years later and we’ve got Giolito, who is clearly going through a rough patch and struggling with his command, and Thor, who is a completely different pitcher following Tommy John. The White Sox “ace” has allowed 27 earned runs over his last five starts (25 1/3 innings) and is in the bottom 14 percent in xwOBA this year. Syndergaard on the other hand ranks in the bottom 32% in that same category.
He hasn’t been quite nearly as bad as Giolito lately, but the White Sox offense has been rolling with the third-best wRC+ (129) against RHP over the last 14 days. Admittedly, the Angels’ bats have not been nearly as hot as the White Sox, but as I’ve already written about three times now, Giolito is in such bad form that it shouldn’t matter too much. If available, I would also recommend taking the over on hits allowed by Giolito which sits at 4.5 (-155) on DraftKings right now. The last seven teams to face him have cleared this mark and he’s averaging 8.3 hits allowed per start over this span.
George Kirby over 5.5 strikeouts (+100) vs BAL
You already know I’m going back to the well on George Kirby with this matchup on hand. The Orioles have been whiff machines against righties over the last two weeks with the second-highest K% (27.3) and fifth-worst wRC+ (75). As I noted in his last start when he faces an above-average strikeout team he gets his punchouts. He faced Baltimore a month ago and racked up eight strikeouts in six scoreless innings. The other strikeout-heavy teams he faced were the Rays (7 Ks), A’s twice (9 Ks, 6 Ks), and Angels (6 Ks).
Jordan Montgomery over 16.5 outs (-105) vs OAK 2u
By far my favorite bet of the night is on Jordan Montgomery facing this anemic Athletics lineup. Over the last 30 days, they have the second-worst wRC+ (81) against LHP, and nine of the last ten southpaws to face them have eclipsed this mark. Oakland is also very quick with their plate appearances, second-fewest Pit/PA (3.81), and Monty makes quick work of the batters he faces. He leads all qualified starters in Pit/PA (3.51) and has pitched at least six innings in six straight starts. The man they call Gumby also rarely walks any batters (top 94% BB%) which coincides with his 1.02 WHIP.
Martín Pérez over 17.5 outs (-135) vs KC 2u
Yet another left-handed hurler and his outs prop I’m loving tonight is Martín Pérez. He does not have quite as good of a matchup as Montgomery, but he is just as efficient with the 8th best Pit/PA (3.59) and the Royals see the fewest pitches per plate appearance (3.80) in the game. Perez has gone at least six innings in 11 of his last 12 starts and has the peripheral stats to back up his incredible 1.96 ERA. He also has a history of limiting hard contact against KC (.292 xwOBA in 111 PAs) and threw 6 1/3 innings when he faced them on May 10th.
Despite having the eighth-best wRC+ (136) against LHP over the last month, the Royals haven’t really faced a southpaw of Perez’s caliber over this span. He has stepped up to far more difficult foes this year and cleared this mark. I don’t see why he won’t be able to tonight against Kansas City.
Tyler Anderson under 3.5 earned runs (-105) vs COL
It is daunting to take any pitcher to go under their earned runs pitching in Coors, but this seems like a decent spot to do so in my opinion. The easiest way to look at this is to see Tyler Anderson’s game log and realize that he has stayed under this mark in 9 of 11 starts this year. What catches my eye even more so is the short leash Dave Roberts keeps him on. Aside from his flirt with a no-hitter, Anderson averages around just 80 pitches a game. Fewer pitches lead to fewer at-bats which lead to fewer opportunities for the Rockies against him. Pretty sound logic right there, huh? He has also been fantastic this year, so there’s that too.
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)