Twins at Rangers Run Line
Among qualified starters, Mike Foltynewicz is tied for second with home runs allowed at 16. He’s tied with some interesting names too in Lucas Giolito and Robbie Ray. Meanwhile, the Twins are third in baseball with home runs at 99 behind only the Jays and the Giants. They are also ninth in team wOBA at .322. Foltynewicz has struggled this year with a 5.48 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .356 xwOBA, and just a 15.7% K rate. The Twins offense should be productive tonight, they’re an interesting stack if you’re playing DFS too. José Berríos has been adequate with a 19.6% K-BB% and a 4.38 xERA. Not great, but then again the Rangers offense has not distinguished themselves this year at all with a .295 team wOBA (26th). Backed by a powerful offense against a suspect pitcher, Berríos should get enough run support to pull away in this one.
Pick: Twins -1.5 (+104 DraftKings)
Blue Jays at Orioles Run Line
Bruce Zimmermann should have his hands full tonight trying to contain a Jays lineup replete with righty power. The young lefty has allowed a lot of loud contact evidenced by a .376 xwOBA to go along with just about a league-average K rate of 20.2%. And knowing how friendly Camden Yards is for righty power, you have to like the Jays’ chances for putting up some crooked numbers in the run column. They should be without Teoscar Hernández (paternity list), regardless this is a lineup that is second in baseball in team wOBA at .333. Meanwhile, how great has Robbie Ray been? His 25.8% K-BB% is good for seventh among qualified starters and he’s held opposing batters to just a .315 wOBA (.310 xwOBA). Yes, the Orioles have been productive against lefties with a .341 team wOBA in that split (fourth), but I’m not swayed by it as I think it’s a case where the early season numbers are skewed by specious sample size. Overall, the Orioles’ team wOBA this year drops to .302 (20th). On paper, the Jays have a strong advantage on both sides of this game.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-114 DraftKings)
Braves Total Runs
Carlos Martínez limps into tonight’s contest with a 5.82 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He’s not missing any bats either with just a 15.7% K rate backed by a miserly 8.6% swinging K rate. He has held opposing batters to just a .300 wOBA, but that’s backed by an inflated .357 xwOBA suggesting that variance has actually been in the veteran’s favor early on. Meanwhile, the Braves have been, as expected, one of the better offenses in the league with a .324 team wOBA (eighth). Provided the Braves roll out their usual lineup, five runs seems like a reasonable expectation tonight.
Pick: Over 4.5 (-129 DraftKings)
Ryan Amore Overall Record: 17-15-0
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)