A short slate graces us today but fortunately, it looks like all of the games will be played after a weekend full of rainouts dampened the fun. Just because the weather will be better doesn’t mean that the bats will be on fire. Here are a few bets to look at for Monday, especially if you like quality starting pitching:
White Sox @ Blue Jays Total Runs After 3 Innings O/U 2.5
The White Sox and Blue Jays have two of the best offenses in baseball, so naturally, we are looking at an under here. If you are feeling courageous follow me, Lance Lynn, and Alek Manoah down this path at least for a few innings. Manoah was torched in D.C. last time out and has spent the last few days on the bereavement list. The break away from baseball could be good for the talented but young righty, who also has pitched much better at home than on the road. Lynn is still as consistent a starting pitcher as there is in baseball, but he hasn’t been quite as efficient lately, only making it through six innings in one of his last four starts. That is why instead of a full game under, I am recommending the under 2.5 after three innings. I am confident in Lynn and Manoah’s ability to get through the lineup one time with minimal damage. After that is a bit of a crapshoot with these offenses, so play it safe.
Pick: UNDER 2.5 Runs (-120 DK, -110 FD)
Rockies @ Cubs Total Runs O/U 9
A total of nine runs is simply too much for these two teams. Granted, Colorado has been on fire offensively lately, but all of those games were played at Coors Field. In their last four road games, they scored a total of just ten runs. Kyle Hendricks has been very effective for the most part over the last two months, save for a tough outing against the Brewers a couple of weeks ago. This Rockies offense just doesn’t maintain the run-producing ability that Milwaukee does, especially away from the Mile High City.
I like to rag on Antonio Senzatela quite often, but he has actually been a pretty solid pitcher this season. In his last start against San Diego in Coors, Senzatela was extremely effective allowing just two ERs in seven innings. Now he gets a Cubs lineup that has scored more than two runs just once in its last five games. I just don’t see any way that these two teams make it to nine runs, so hammer the under in this battle of fourth-place teams.
Pick: UNDER 9 Runs (-120 DK)
Mariners @ Athletics Moneyline
Speaking of pitchers I love to rag on frequently, Marco Gonzales has been consistently effective for a surprising Seattle team this season. After allowing 12 ERs in his first two starts of the season, Gonzales has allowed more than three ERs just twice in 15 starts since then. Oakland is in the bottom third of baseball in wOBA (.316 wOBA) against LHP this season and Gonzales was able to earn the W against them by allowing just two ERs in 5.2 innings back on July 25th.
Paul Blackburn is not the kind of pitcher I am too concerned about. He wasn’t too bad against the White Sox in his lone start this season, allowing three ERs in 5.1 innings five days ago. Unfortunately for Oakland, I think this is probably his ceiling. The Mariners have also been better against RHP (.300 wOBA) than LHP (.292 wOBA) this season. Not to mention that these two teams have been going in opposite directions lately, with Seattle winning seven of their last 10 and Oakland losing seven of their last 10. Despite being underdogs at +110, I like the hotter team with the better pitcher in this one.
Pick: Mariners ML (+110 DK, +112 FD)
Kyle Stanzel Overall Record: 42-52-3
Net Money (Assuming all wagers are $100): –$486.15
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)