I had another subpar performance last week and ‘1-2’ should just be my middle name at this point. My record is 28-31-1 (-1.0u) with just a few weeks left to make some real money this season. Let’s get to it!
Atlanta vs. Nationals o/u 9.5 Runs
Certainly not a defining piece of information, but Nationals games have gone over in seven of their last ten games. It makes sense though when you take a look at the parade of no-name relievers they throw out on a nightly basis. Names like Andres Machado, Sam Clay, and Mason Thompson sound like they were auto-generated by MLB The Show for the 14th year of your franchise mode. Sean Nolin starting does not help either.
The Braves bats have also rebounded incredibly well since losing Ronald Acuña in late July with the most home runs in the National League since the Trade Deadline. They are sending Touki Toussaint to the mound this evening who has been good, but susceptible to the long ball with eight allowed in just 43 IP.
Pick: OVER 9.5 Runs (-115 DraftKings)
Astros vs Mariners o/u 8 Runs
I do not feel great making this pick and the line moved down by half a run as I was pondering. That is usually a sign to bet with Vegas. However, I will stick with my gut and bet this game to go over. Both the Astros and Mariners used their A-Team bullpens last night in a hard-fought extra-innings game.
The M’s burned Drew Steckenrider, Paul Sewald (who blew the save), Casey Sadler, and Diego Castillo. The Astros burned Ryan Pressly, Kendall Graveman, and Yimi García. This number is low and a small detail like this could push it over in the late innings.
Pick: OVER 8 Runs (-120 DK, -110 o8.5 FanDuel)
Red Sox vs Rays Run Line
The Rays’ offense has been a revelation since the Trade Deadline. They have the highest wRC+ in baseball since August 1st buoyed by the acquisition of Nelson Cruz and the star-power of Wander Franco. Randy Arozarena will miss the game, but the Rays’ replacement level is so good that I am not even worried about that.
My only concern is Nathan Eovaldi being on the bump for Boston. He has limited Tampa Bay to just seven earned runs in three starts (19.1 IP) so far this season and his best performance came on August 11th (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K). Still, I am confident in the Rays tonight.
Pick: RAYS -1.5 (+145 DK, +146 FD)
BONUS: If anyone bets using Draft Kings, they are offering a FREE $50 bet on the Buccaneers +73 on Thursday night against the Cowboys and who does not like free money?
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)