White Sox at Pirates O/U 8
Tonight’s pitching matchup in this game features Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.86 ERA) and Tyler Anderson (3-7, 4.89 ERA). Against the Pirates last season, Giolito threw a no-hitter, so there’s that. That said, he has been a bit shaky in June, giving up nine earned runs over 19 innings (4.26 ERA). During that span, he’s allowed six home runs. The Pirates are not a home run hitting team (their 51 home runs rank last in baseball), but they should be able to scratch a few runs across in this game.
On the other hand, I like the Chicago bats to tee off against Anderson. Against lefties this season, the White Sox are hitting .274/.345/.456. Their wRC+ of 122 is the second-highest in baseball against left-handers this season. In three June starts, Anderson has given up 11 earned runs in 17.1 innings (5.71 ERA). In his last start specifically, he allowed six earned runs in six innings. With the White Sox chewing up lefties the way they are, I believe Anderson will struggle.
Pick: Over 8 runs (-109, DK)
Royals O/U 2.5
Listen, I get the fact that Gerrit Cole (8-3, 2.31 ERA) is pitching for the Yankees tonight. At this point in the season, he is third among starting pitchers in fWAR at 3.1. The man is elite, with the alleged use of sticky stuff or not. That said, 2.5 runs as an over/under seems ridiculously low. In their past 10 games, the Royals have scored two runs or less just two times. Like Giolito, in June, Cole has given up nine earned runs in 19 innings. Similar to Giolit0, the home run ball has been a slight issue this month for Cole, as he’s allowed five. The Royals will not destroy Cole by any means. That said, they should score at least three runs tonight.
Pick: Royals over 2.5 runs (-121, DK)
Cleveland at Cubs First Inning O/U 0.5
For the Cubs in this one, we have Kyle Hendricks (9-4, 4.13 ERA). After a nightmarish April, Hendricks has been his usual soft contact-inducing self. In nine starts since the beginning of May, Hendricks has a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings. Against a Cleveland lineup that isn’t all that potent (88 wRC+ as a team), I trust him to get through the first cleanly.
For Cleveland, Eli Morgan (0-1, 12.79 ERA) takes the hill. Judging by that ERA, Morgan has not been effective in his two career starts. In 6.1 innings this season, Morgan has allowed nine earned runs including three home runs. For what it’s worth though, in both starts this year, Morgan has not allowed a first-inning run. In this game, I am hoping for a bit more of that first-inning magic. Anytime a first-inning under has positive odds, it’s hard for me to pass it up. That is the case tonight.
Pick: Under 0.5 first-inning runs (+104, DK)
Nathan Hursh Overall Record: (22-40-1)
Net Money (assuming all wagers are $100): –$1,867.45
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)