Best Bets of the Day – July 28th

Good day to be a strikeout prop

Hello! If you have been following along with my Weekly Picks, last Wednesday really had some brutal picks. In my most daring slate of underdogs yet, the Twins hit big while the Orioles (+200) blew their win in the ninth inning and Max Krannick (over 3.5 K) wound up with just three strikeouts. Absolutely heart-wrenching. My record now sits at 21-24-1 (-1.4u) on the season. Not bad, but we need to see some green. Today’s card is not very kind to underdogs, so these picks will be coming back to basics.

 

Garrett Richards O/U 3.5 Strikeouts

 

Richards has been one of the pitchers most affected by the ban on “sticky stuff”. Since June 13th (the ceremonial day of enforcement), he has made six starts, thrown just 27 innings, is striking out 12.8% of opposing batters, and has a 7.33 ERA. Oh yeah, and the spin rates on each of his pitches have dropped a few hundred RPMs.

I can not see Richards pitching deep into this game given the importance of this matchup, his recent ineffectiveness, the Blue Jays talented lineup, the fact that this is only a seven-inning game, and yesterday’s rain-out keeping the Red Sox’s bullpen fresh. Hammer the under.

Pick: UNDER 3.5 Ks (-110 DraftKings)

 

J.A. Happ O/U 4.5 Strikeouts

 

Happ has been horrific this season, everybody knows that. But despite his 6.14 ERA, he has been pitching deep into games. He has shockingly completed six innings in eight of his 18 starts. The Twins are completely content with leaving him out there to take a beating in order to give their overworked bullpen a breather.

Also, the Tigers strikeout at the second-highest rate of any team in baseball. Their offense has shifted into a completely new gear over the last few months, but their strikeout still sits as the eighth highest since June 1st. Take Happ to stay in this game a bit longer than he should today and find those necessary punchouts.

Pick: OVER 4.5 Ks (-140 DK)

 

Zack Wheeler O/U 7.5 Strikeouts

 

A clean-sweep of strikeout plays today. What can I say, I am feeling it today. Wheeler takes the mound at home against the Nationals just one night after rumors swirled around a possible Trea Turner trade. He wound leaving the game in the first inning after testing positive for Covid, but this Nationals team is at the forefront of this week’s trade deadline. No Turner tonight, I expect Wheeler to annihilate this lineup and cruise towards double-digit strikeouts.

Pick: OVER 7.5 Ks (+120 DK)

 

Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)

James Schiano

Graduate of The Ohio State University and New York City dweller, I am a die-hard Mets fan who can generally be found screaming at the TV or making wise-cracks to anyone who'll hear them. Follow me on Twitter @JeterHadNoRange

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