Last week was a winning week! We did it! Now, let’s make it two in a row! Those victories bring my season-long record to 24-26-1 (-0.8u) and I am so close to being back in the green I can taste it. Time to get to the promised land.
Frankie Montas O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
If you have been reading along with my SP Schedule Previews this season, you will know I am a huge Montas guy. Possibly the biggest Montas guy out there. I had been waiting for the other shoe to drop and it finally has. Montas has a 36.3 K%, 4.8 BB%, and 2.56 ERA over his last five starts. He has returned to being splitter-dominant, an adjustment that made him an ace in 2019, over this same stretch.
Pick: OVER 6.5 Ks (-105 DraftKings, -110 FanDuel)
Matt Harvey O/U 3.5 Strikouts
I am not sure exactly how Harvey continues to pitch on Wednesdays, but it feels as if he has been featured on these pieces more than any other pitcher. And I keep going back to his totals because he simply is not very good. Moreover, the Tigers are suddenly an offense to fear rather than target (for fantasy purposes, at least).
They are 10th in wOBA and 12th in wRC+ as a team since June 1st. Pretty good! This game will also be played in Camden Yards, a much more inviting offensive environment than the Tigers’ home park, Comerica Field. I don’t expect Harvey to stick around very long tonight.
Pick: UNDER 3.5 Ks (+115 DK)
Padres (-165) vs Marlins (+140) Run Line
This game jumped out at me as an underdog hound. Sandy Alcantara (recently found out that name lacks an accent, sorry Sandy!) will face off against Ryan Weathers. Alcantara has cemented himself as a steady and reliable pitcher this season with his upper 90s sinker, newfound changeup, and slider mixing in. No matchup should scare you off Alcantara anymore.
On the other side, Weathers has taken a monumental step back since a hot start to his career. He has been the youngest starter in baseball all year at 21 years old and does not have devastating velocity. The latter is important since the Marlins have the lowest wOBA in baseball against fastballs 96 mph and above at .247. They are still fourth-worst against fastballs 95 mph and slower, but that number jumps up to .338. I smell an upset.
Pick: MARLINS (+140 DK)
Featured Image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)