I ranked Andrew Heaney around #40 in the preseason and you can imagine how excited I am to finally see the southpaw throw a 2019 pitch after two months of waiting. What we got was a lovely 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks line against the Rangers and now we’re wondering what to make of him for the rest of the year. Well, I don’t think we can really extrapolate from this outing. Heaney went sinker heavy here – 62/85! – as we often see with arms returning from lengthy IL stints. He worked on his fastball foundation and will develop the feel and trust back for his curveball and changeup as he continues through the year. And we really want that slow ball to come back – it was his most successful offering last year and the impetus for his fantastic performances. So I’m going to give a bit of caution to those that are adopting Andy as their lord and savior so quickly as there will likely be some hiccups in the next two or three games, but at the same time, 31/85 CSW is marvelous and it’s good to see him comfortable at the same velocity (if not higher!) as last year. The Mariners and A’s are next, let’s hope it’s the same strong heater with his changeup stepping into the spotlight.
Let’s see how every other SP did Sunday:
Erick Fedde – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. The Marlins are bad and should feel bad. Don’t Trust The Feddes.
Jack Flaherty – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Mmmmmm thank you Flaherty. This is fantastic and you’re starting to believe he’s fixed, but I’m not sold yet. Sorry. It was a poor 25/91 CSW and he still lacked a defiant third pitch (3/12 CSW across changeups and curveballs). He gets the Cubs next and we’re not out of the woods yet.
Jake Odorizzi – 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. It’s wild to see a 2.16 ERA and 0.99 WHIP from Odorizzi right now, but that’s what we’re dealing with from Jake in 11 starts. The “ace” is so ready to regress – 5.6% HR/FB, 82.4% LOB rate, .238 BABIP – and while I think he could be decent at a lower HR/FB and BABIP due to his heavy flyball induction, it still speaks to about a 3.60 ERA or so when all is said and done. And that’s fine, especially if it comes with his career high 12% swinging strike rate that balloons his K rate to nearly 27%. I’m not selling since I doubt there are major buyers and I’m riding for all it’s worth.
Tanner Roark – 5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 9 Ks. Come on Roark, this is just mean. You’re going to trap a ton of owners that now see your next matchup against the Nationals, run you out there, then get burned for it. It’s really not cool.
Ryne Stanek – 1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. You own Jalen Beeks for the cheap wins and he gave you a dub with a 4.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 3 BBs, 3 Ks line against the Tribe. I guess he deserves a spot on The List, I just don’t love putting faith in False Starters. It’s a lot of risk for not a whole lot of reward, but hey, it’s working right now.
Brett Anderson – 6.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. Sure Anderson, give us a 1.50 WHIP and 1 ER. We’ll take that any day from you.
Danny Duffy – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. So I want to be excited about Duffy as this sneaky deep add. His slider was good here – 23/29 for strikes, 7 whiffs – but 23/90 CSW isn’t encouraging and a sub 92 mph fastball isn’t the Duffy that we want him to be. Not the greatest fastball/slider separation as well with a whole lot in the middle. I’m not sold for 12-teamers yet.
Robbie Erlin – 2.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. This was supposed to be Paddack, so the Pads threw Erlin out there to open. It wasn’t anything, it just was.
Eduardo Rodriguez – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Sure, I’ll take this from The Uni, especially against the Astros. Weird to see just eight whiffs from him and 2/14 CSW on his changeup, which speaks to us being completely fine with this line as he didn’t have pristine stuff. Yanks are next and I’d let him fly for the most part. Not totally confident there.
Marcus Stroman – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. I mean, okay I guess? Stroman faced the lineup that leads the league in strikeout rate and managed just two punchouts and 9/88 whiffs. Womp womp. 18/88 CSW and it’s sad that his slider just isn’t the consistent big pitch we want it to be.
Julio Teheran – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 1 Ks. Nothing like Teheran to serve us a HAISTFMFWT?! while walking four yet somehow having decent ratios. It’s a wild ride that serves little purpose. Like the entirety of Lost.
Luke Weaver – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Save for the WHIP, this is lovely…except Weaver pulled himself with what has been diagnosed as forearm tightness. That’s a terrible diagnosis. They downplayed it and there’s still some question if he’s even getting an MRI, but you can’t but be a bit worried at the moment. Don’t do anything until we hear more.
Brandon Woodruff – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 10 Ks. Woodruff was hinting a perfecto in this one and while that didn’t come to fruition (stupid solo shots), this line is everything we’ve dreamed of for Woodruff. It’s been a crazy good 1.42 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 31% K rate, and 6% walk rate across his last six starts against the Phils twice, Mets twice, Nats, and Braves (I thought the Brewers were in the AL Central?), a product of his fastball absolutely killing it. 11.2 pVal in that time and his slider doing fine. I really hope that heater can continue to carry him – I’m not selling unless someone is legit buying – and you can expect a near #40 spot on The List. I just don’t love his slider and changeup enough for me to elevate him further, as the 94% LOB rate, .235 BABIP, and 9% HR/FB should regress a bit (still to his 3.22 SIERA is just fine!).
Ariel Jurado – 6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. I don’t care if the ERA was good in this one, I don’t want to be a part of this world.
Zach Eflin – 3.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Apparently, Eflin had a stomach bug that affected him and he got an early hook. He’s still vying for the Spider-Man label and that makes him a must-own in 12-teamers.
Kenta Maeda – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s good to see Maeda back after demolishing hitters in his start before the IL stint, it’s bad to see this so…meh.
Justin Verlander – 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Yes, even with 3 ER over seven. Don’t be spoiled.
Zack Wheeler – 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. 97 mph fastball. Seven frames. 35/102 CSW. 14/17 strikes with his slider. One inning that didn’t go his way. Yeah, this is the Wheeler I know and love.
Shaun Anderson – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. You got nothing from this. NOTHING. Streaming Record: 35-22. It was a rough array of choices, yet so many fared plenty better. So it goes.
Chris Archer – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 6 BBs, 3 Ks. Archer got the Dodgers and reverted to his classic undesired self. He’s not an arm that still comes out on top in tough matchups, but he’ll serve you well about 75% of the time. And that’s cool with me.
Trevor Bauer – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Ehhhhhh, so close. Slider still isn’t back – just 1/16 whiffs – though 42 curveballs here are cool to see and helped him hold a 35/107 CSW. And remember that changeup? Yeah, he threw zero in this one. Wild. I’m buying everywhere I can, I legit believe Bauer is one or two starts away from getting this sorted out and being an absolute stud for the remainder of the year.
Dylan Covey – 6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Despite the low WHIP and strikeout per inning, this feels more like Dylan’s ceiling, not his M.O. Remember kids, Don’t Covey Thy Dylan.
David Hess – 5.2 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 1 BBs, 6 Ks. Hey, six strikeouts! Still, for disappointment this year, the Hess Truck’s here!
German Marquez – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. Even against the Orioles, Marquez struggled in Coors. Four-seamers weren’t up like we want them to be, curveballs went 2/17 on whiffs, and it was an overall meh. You’re locked into this purgatory and he’ll win you weeks, hopefully the bombs are this mediocre.
Spencer Turnbull – 7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. 14 whiffs is a wonderful thing – 25% on sliders is great! – though just 23/99 CSW overall is super blegh. He’s close, y’all. You can see the eight strikeouts and ability to go deep into games and see he’s almost there. Keep sticking with him.
Mike Leake – 6.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 Hits, 3 BBs, 4 Ks. You know those times when you hire a plumber and you feel like they’re making stuff up? That’s what Mike is. It never stops Leaking.
Jose Quintana – 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 12 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks. We knew he wasn’t as good as his April stretch and he’s a Toby. A good Toby, but still a Toby.
Caleb Smith – 3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks. I just can’t wrap my head around Smith – Caleb freakin’ Smith, the man with 6+ strikeouts in every start thus far (just three under 8!) – delivering only one K in this game. One strikeout? HAISTFMFWT?! He wasn’t getting batters to fish for his slider – 1/26 whiffs – his changeup didn’t work – 1/10 CSW – and his fastball was left over the middle of the plate. Bleeeeeeggggghhh. Still starting after just one start and while we knew he wasn’t this good, he’s still legit. Like some leaves getting on my keyboard as I type outside, brush it off Caleb.
Domingo German – 5.0 IP, 7 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 6 Ks. Speaking of a touch of regression, we expected German to take a step back as well, and his fastball got a bit clobbered here. And his changeups that were hung up. And his curveballs. This was less off “this guy is lost” and more of “some pitches got away from him and were taken advantage of.” Have no fear moving forward.
For those unaware, I’m forced to make my Streamer picks under the condition of sub 20% owned in Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownership rates.
Lance Lynn vs. Seattle Mariners – I don’t like doubling-down on Lynn, but I don’t like any matchups from other possible streamers and I’ll go after the Ks. Don’t do this as you could be in a deep hole early.
Trevor Richards vs. San Francisco Giants – It’s a solid matchup and Richards was able to perform well against the Tigers last time out.
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Anthony DeSclafani vs. Pittsburgh Pirates – Tony Disco has faced some tougher opponents and the Pirates are an exploitable offense.
Game of the Day
Mitch Keller vs. Sonny Gray – It’s deGrom vs. Kershaw and I’ll be watching Keller. Fine, BOTH. No promises,
(Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
I need to decide between J Nelson, M Perez or Odorizzi this morning. 6×6 QS K/9. Who to drop? I’m leaning Perez but this is my most desperate hour.
Help me Nick Pollack, you’re my only hope…
Turnbull or Gausman ROS?
Are you starting German against the Sawx?
I traded for Bauer before May upgrading from Syndergaard. How do you rank them now?
Still want Bauer over Syndergaard, easily.
How close are Wheeler and Marquez for ratios and QS going forward?
I think there’s a bit of a gap. I can see Wheeler maintaining a higher floor for longer than Marquez – despite what both of them did last year.
I read that Dinelson Lamet is throwing pain-free and upper-90s. How long before he’s back with the Padres, in your opinion?
If you are going to add long relievers, then you may as well as closers and setup men to the list. There is just no good reason to do it.
That Maeda DL stint was a classic Dodgers move – of course he is healthy a week later. It seems like a common thing to do after they pull an SP prematurely – not only do they make the wrong call by pulling him early but they create a fake injury to help deflect the blame and pretend that they are managing innings. They did it last year with WB. A fake injury to skip a start or two is one thing, but it often coincides with bad pull of a starter – like Maeda’s previous gem where he struck out 12 – its a super weird organization.
Lynn has been great v SEA twice already this year. I am gambling myself… gambling for sure!
Samardzija or Richards tomorrow. They’re going head to head?
Smart to grab Plesac? Any opinions?
I’m down! Not sure what we’ll get but he could stick if he’s successful, making him a solid spec add.